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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Bought a little WFC @ $27.19 and Franklin Income @$1.77.  That's it for the money from my Series I Savings Bonds sales.  

So many stocks...so little money.  Sigh.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Agree MLott1!

A bunch of my stocks have sold off to levels we haven’t seen in years. Granted, we may NOT have seen the bottom, my wife was “ranting/ raving” at me this AM, when she saw I bought the additional KO, she thinks I have “blown” too much of my cash to quickly. She is much more conservative, I pointed out that I have NOT made any purchases in her accounts, just mine. 

Right now, I’m going to sit on the sidelines a little more and “watch” how things play out, this will probably get worse before we turn the corner. But I’ve already added to DUK, MMM, KO, UN, MCD, USB, CSCO, VZ, VTIAX, and VEMAX in the past month, since the selloff began. It’s hard to pick “the bottom”, so I’m just gradually adding as we go lower. Yes, nearly all my additions have been “premature”, in that we’ve continued to go down. But I think in 5-10 years, they will pay off. 

Win
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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@richardsok wrote:

It's been years since I've owned NLY but I returned to it today.   However ugly C-virus may become, I doubt the most severe economic impact will last long enough to impair the mortgage market.    Probably will be a sharp fall-off in home sales for some weeks, but with the Fed fund rates near zero  and mortgage rates around 3.5 - 4%, there should be plenty of room for NLY to operate.

Colossal 19% yield (for the moment) with ex-d 3/30 .


Hi Richard,  Bear with my ignorance about NLY business model.  I know DickonCapeCod used to own this, but I never had the time to learn about this company.  Using your numbers and historic dividend policy of this company, I have to assume this company leverages up many times its net equity but is not a bank.   Referring to the CEF world, is this company not required to delever when its net assets fall below certain percentage of its debt, forcing it to sell its assets at an inopportune time?  Your insight would be appreciated.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

@Win1177  Yep, I'm sure that I'm buying too early, but I'm not smart enough to pick an absolute bottom and then start buying.  The stock market was down big time when I started buying, and has continued to go down, which I expected.  

The big unknown in all this is, of course, the virus.  No models or precedents for this, so no one really knows how much the stock market will decline.  But, as they say, no one rings a bell at the bottom of the market.  As I posted on another thread, if you are waiting for market clarity, you are waiting for Godot.  

Stripped down to the bare essentials, this is like any other market decline.  You don't know how far it will fall, or when is the best time to buy.  One of the banking Rothschilds was supposed to have said, "Buy when there is blood in the streets", and with this virus, we are uncomfortably close to something like that.  

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

MLott1,

I believe his comment was “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it’s your own”, or something to that effect. We may be early, but like you, I think it is nearly impossible to “accurately” pick the “low” of the market during a correction or bear market. So I just start adding (slowly) as the market drops.

During 2008-2009, there were numerous times when I would periodically question whether I was making big mistakes, as it seemed like as soon as I would buy something, it would then drop another 10% or 20%. But with time, I picked up some real bargains during that time, that have gone on to appreciate tremendously. So I’m dong the same here- gradually adding to positions that are strong wide moat dividend payers. My hope is that 5-10 years from now, I will again be up significantly from here, even if along the way I will test new lows.

Win
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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@Win1177 wrote:

Agree MLott1!

A bunch of my stocks have sold off to levels we haven’t seen in years. Granted, we may NOT have seen the bottom, my wife was “ranting/ raving” at me this AM, when she saw I bought the additional KO, she thinks I have “blown” too much of my cash to quickly. She is much more conservative, I pointed out that I have NOT made any purchases in her accounts, just mine. 

Right now, I’m going to sit on the sidelines a little more and “watch” how things play out, this will probably get worse before we turn the corner. But I’ve already added to DUK, MMM, KO, UN, MCD, USB, CSCO, VZ, VTIAX, and VEMAX in the past month, since the selloff began. It’s hard to pick “the bottom”, so I’m just gradually adding as we go lower. Yes, nearly all my additions have been “premature”, in that we’ve continued to go down. But I think in 5-10 years, they will pay off. 


Same here Win. I bought on the past dips thinking the virus would not be as significant as it is. Now I'm not chasing it lower, rather waiting for a stable market with some indication of an upswing before buying more.  I realize I will miss the bottom doing this but I feel it is better than investing too much now and having to wait longer with more money invested. The way it is now, i should have  a bit of a long-term investment increase over having done nothing.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Just sold my cash position at Vanguard VMMXX to be placed in the core settlemnt acct. VMFXX.

I am now loaded and ready for bear.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Good move for MID April,not now!

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Explorer ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Yup, same thinking here.  BTFD was ingrained.  No longer.  Tomorrow - level 3 halt seems vey likely.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@Fishingrod wrote:

”I am now loaded and ready for bear.”

Good one!


 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Selling all my Vanguard prime and muni money market mutual funds today and moving that into the settlement fund.  I do not want to take even the very very very slight chance that they will place a 10 day holds on redemptions just as I want use my dry powder to buy something - I've a few limit buys in place.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@blackfoot wrote:

Good move for MID April,not now!


For those who are not so absolutely confident, how about both?

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

New position in bucket 1, TVC @ $24.45. Quirky auto reset exchange traded bond puttable at reset.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@DJANG0 wrote:

New position in bucket 1, TVC @ $24.45. Quirky auto reset exchange traded bond puttable at reset.


Added @$24.225

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

bujia --

Thank you for your kind words, but any reference to my so-called "insight" is more flattering than I deserve....witness the carnage that is the non-cash portion of my portfolio.   Fact is, I have ZERO CONFIDENCE in my judgment. EVERY one of my current positions is deeply in the red now.   Even Pimco CEFs are being shattered again this morning and I am now busy taking losses.    Sold 50% of my portfolio's "crown jewels" today, dumping big portions of my PTY, PCI, PKO, PHK and also half of NLY and all of PPR.

I do not know if I am selling at the bottom, but I do know that (just like 2008) my instincts were right but I sold too slowly and too late. Should have been 100% into cash MUCH sooner.   My technical system was valid, but my portfolio (again like 2008) was too complicated to move in & out of the market briskly.  If my wife had any inkling of her losses, she'd scream in horror.     However, she trusts me, poor gal.

My only silver lining are my big cash positions and market-neutral options trading which continue to do very well.

 

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Significant purchase of UTX @75.00. If I'm going to war I want to start with some big guns. This marks the beginning of my shopping I expect to last a few months. Be well, safe and good luck.

edit to add  purchases: just throwing more wood on the pile I already have and hoping for the best.

D @ 60.00

PTY @ 10.05

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I admire everyone who is here supporting our economy and revealing their fears and potential misgivings on this thread.

Richard, I just bought MMM at $120 and it promptly went to $116.xx, so I understand your self-doubt. We are all opening ourselves up to bashing here, but are taking it like men.

I still think that we will eventually be redeemed, but we may have to first take a beating, before we deliver our KO punch. Hang in there buddy!

It appears that there is no such thing as too low a limit order!

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold BA@98.5  at 50% loss.

Why: I bought it at avg cost of 195, thinking of it as beaten down blue chip with one technical issue, without really understanding what I am getting into. Div cut and understanding possible Fed bail out and its implications are above my head.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

CL 100 @ 59.98

CAT 100 @ 90.75

MMM 100 @ $120.00

EMR 100 @ 38.00

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I'm completely out equities for the first time in 20 years.

Black Swans distort and sometimes destroy financial markets.  Trying to execute an investment strategy right now is like trying to build a bridge while you are standing on it!

Did I sell at the bottom? Possibly, but I would rather underperform than get my head ripped-off.

helmut

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