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Frequent Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@Gary1952 wrote:

I'm not saying it is not to be taken seriously or treated with urgency. I'm saying it is getting overblown where it stands now. Looking at the data from the websites, China has leveled out below 90,000 cases with 3241 dead. Take the data for what it is worth. Of course the population in the US is mopre free-willed than China. Many here are not doing due-diligence to stay home. The projections of 1/2 of the population getting CV by some is too crazy to believe. If Dr. My point is that CV is nowhere as bad as the market has made out out to be. Because the death rate is 10 times worse than the flue does not mean 10 times more people will die. There is something else going on in this market.

To get this thread back on track I want to buy more VIG and SCHD! If I was still working I would throw everything I had into the market.


@DrVenture wrote:

@Gary1952 wrote:

By what standards Do you believe that CV is worse than the flu?  Far fewer cases and deaths for CV so far. We will see when it’s over. I suggest tuning out the hype. The media wants CV to be big. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalizati...


@BB2 wrote:

Oh boy.  "No worse than the flu."  I've gotta guess this is sarcasm.  Sorry, had to respond to 1952's statement.  I wish 1952 and loved ones well.  Hopefully they live in a well stocked cabin in the woods.  

 


 


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

https://reason.com/2020/03/11/covid-19-mortality-rate-ten-times-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-dr-anth...

I hope this guy is wrong or that extreme measures mitigate it substantially.


 


In that case we are on the same page. I too think that this market reaction is overblown. I am acting according to that thinking at this point.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@BigTom wrote:

 

Exchange PFORX - Pimco International Bonds with SSGLX - Global Equity Ex-US Index

Added to VGENX - Energy

At some point, Energy has to have value. It's trading at 15-20 years lows. 
Maybe I should pray for a government bailout.


A government bailout for the energy sector would not surprise me one bit!

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

>>Many here are not doing due-diligence to stay home.<<

Why wouldn't you ?  I mean if you want to fix the financial problem you need to get this actual factual CV situation under control.  Sorry if it doesn't comport with wishful thinking or denialism but, good news, is it can be done.  Ignoring or denying it won't help resolve it.


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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

The market pullback is grossly overblown for what has happened to date. I believe the market is pricing in the near FUTURE certainty of GROSS hospital overload, an exploding unemployment rate, a huge hit to high-end real estate, supply chain breakages up and down the chain, and a prolonged period of bond repricing as credit risks get re-evaluated. If you look at it that way, it's not so surprising, in my mind, anyways. It's not pricing the "here and now" - it is pricing its expectations for the future. (I know we all know that - it's just that our future expectations vary a lot on this forum).  Which is why I want to buy techs and industrials first, with hard assets OR scalable digital products, or monopolies. Small and mid-caps come next, along with staples and companies with strong balance sheets, dividend histories, and lots of cash. Corporate bonds come dead last in my plan. I'll announce when I pull the trigger.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold all my VWETX (long term IG bond fund from VG) - I don't think bond have much of a future as an investment category and I'm accumulating dry powder for buying stuff down the road

A small limit buy order for VOO was executed. I will slowly (over some months) start buying, now that stock prices are back to 2016/2017 levels

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@CherylBoca wrote:

The market pullback is grossly overblown for has happened to date. I believe the market is pricing in the near FUTURE certainty of GROSS hospital overload, an exploding unemployment rate, a huge hit to real estate, supply chain breakages up and down the chain, and a prolonged period of bond repricing as credit risks get re-evaluated. If you look at it that way, it's not so surprising, in my mind, anyways. It's not pricing the "here and now" - it is pricing its expectations for the future. (I know we all know that - it's just that our future expectations vary a lot on this forum).  Which is why I want to buy techs and industrials first, with hard assets OR scalable digital products, or monopolies. Small and mid-caps come next, along with staples and companies with strong balance sheets, dividend histories, and lots of cash. Corporate bonds come dead last in my plan.


My plan or analysis is much more seat-of-the pants than yours. But, my thinking is exactly the same here. I'm normally not a buyer of individual stocks, but that is what I am doing now. Industrials are next on my radar and techs , like CSCO which was as low as $33.31 today, already back to $37 with a nice dividend.

I own no bonds anymore. I was early buying after dotcom, 9/11 and the great recession. It hardly mattered in the long run. But I am still taking a measured approach here. Trying to be patient!

My shopping list for the next few weeks: YUMC, CSCO, KO, UTX, EMR, CAT, CL

Love to hear specific recommendations from you or anyone else to perform DD on.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Added to VDGIX and PRNEX. Still at around 25% cash.

Reason is the same I mentioned previously, using cash/MM funds to invest in this downturn. I will see whether I will run out of cash or market will exhaust correcting itself. :-)

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@BigTom wrote:

 

 

 

Added to VGENX - Energy

At some point, Energy has to have value. It's trading at 15-20 years lows. 
Maybe I should pray for a government bailout.


BidTom, I am pessimistic re gvt bailout.  It would infuriate many under age 30.

But primary reason is , it is not required.

When an energy company goes bankrupt, the oil and gas assets do not--they just sit there.  Eventually the judge allows a company such as Exxon to buy out, pennies on the dollars for the oil.  Exxon then moves the oil fields into "reserves"...it doesn't pump the oil, thus not saturating the market.  All is well.  Happens about every ten years.

There is an old saying in Texas.  "The rich are not those who discover and drill the oil; rich are those who own it after the price collapse!"

Collapse underway.

R48

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

CinB: thanks for your most recent posts.  they give me a framework for thinking about things, when most of my own have taken a backseat to emotions both fear and greed.  again, thanks, and please do keep em up.

 

(btw / ditto to both r49 and fd.  great to see them waltzing like matilda these days!)

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

For obvious reasons, I've averaged into TP.  One roll.  Then 2. 4, 8, 16, 32, 64...65,000.  Sorry.  I also bought VDKA.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I started buying this week. Sure the market may drop another 15-20% but if you wait until the bottom you won't get in. I'm only in about 30% of my position so far, so it's not like risk is that high. If it goes up I make money, if it goes down 20% I just add in next 40% of the position. Then if armageddon hits and market drops 50%+ then I add in the final 30% and kick back to watch the end of the world. If you buy in tranches like that, then worse case if the market drops 50%, your cost basis is still at the 40% level. I don't think the market will drop 70%, because during the 'Great Recession' it took 5 months to bottom out, but I think the market damage will be priced in long before that in this case. Polls show the majority of people don't think this virus is a serious threat (that thinking has increased 10% since last month), and I think there will be an uprising by the 90% of healthy people long before then. I think by the end of April people will say to reopen everything and if people get sick, they get sick. It won't end the health problem but will end the economic problem.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@retiredat48 wrote:

@BigTom wrote:

 

 

 

Added to VGENX - Energy

At some point, Energy has to have value. It's trading at 15-20 years lows. 
Maybe I should pray for a government bailout.


BidTom, I am pessimistic re gvt bailout.  It would infuriate many under age 30.

But primary reason is , it is not required.

When an energy company goes bankrupt, the oil and gas assets do not--they just sit there.  Eventually the judge allows a company such as Exxon to buy out, pennies on the dollars for the oil.  Exxon then moves the oil fields into "reserves"...it doesn't pump the oil, thus not saturating the market.  All is well.  Happens about every ten years.

There is an old saying in Texas.  "The rich are not those who discover and drill the oil; rich are those who own it after the price collapse!"

Collapse underway.

R48


First I should say, that I owned almost no energy until today.

You make some great points, as always R48. I shall keep it all in mind. Still, here is why I think that the government will carve out something for the energy industry (though I am certainly not counting on it):

1. It has been a source of great national pride over the past 10 years and a huge part of our vibrant economy. An American success story, if you will.

2. It has been the source of many great paying jobs over the past 10 years.

3. They will throw the kitchen sink, dishwasher, refrigerator and the stove at the economy and everyone will want to be able to say they supported "saving the day".

4. What "is required", will always be secondary to optics.

5. Not to be political, but the sitting POTUS has the Senate wrapped around his little finger and I don't think he cares one bit about the under 30 crowd and neither does the Senate. Basically, neither cares about anyone they consider "not their base". Proof: the Tax Cut Act 0f 2018, re: blue states. Should of caused a revolt. Did not.

I absolutely do not want to bring politics into this thread, so if anyone wants to argue this, make a new thread in the OT forum. Happy to have an intelligent and respectful exchange of views over there. I just think it is relevant to gaming out the next moves here.

 

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@Heim wrote:

I started buying this week. Sure the market may drop another 15-20% but if you wait until the bottom you won't get in. I'm only in about 30% of my position so far, so it's not like risk is that high. If it goes up I make money, if it goes down 20% I just add in next 40% of the position. ...


This! I posted elsewhere that if you wait until a clear upward trend emerges (say up 15% for a few days total) it will be no different then buying 15% before the bottom. Buying 15% before the bottom, and at the bottom, and 15% after the bottom would be a better strategy numerically. Even better buying 15% before the bottom and at the bottom and being done with it. It IS risky. Buying equities is risky on the best of days. I do understand if a person cannot tolerate the risk. I thrive in chaos, always have. Maybe someday it will get me.

Notice that there is a severe disconnect between the people who are seemingly convinced this is way overblown and simultaneously not acting on that conviction. Those who profess to believe in DCA and rebalancing and are seemingly frozen in place. Cognitive dissonance and compartmentalization, coupled with fear! I'm not recommending anything to anyone here. I'm not criticizing anyone else strategy. Just offering my viewpoint. I believe that the biggest factor in investing and economics is psychology. The herd mentality worked for the wildebeest and the nomadic tribes. It is difficult to overcome.

Previously I shifted 3.5% into equities. Today, I shifted another 3%. I'm fully prepared to shift another 3-8%. I plan to be solvent much longer than the market is irrational.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

You can almost put me in the group you describe. Cash is very attractive now. But I have done some buying and was hoping to see some type of positive news. I have been following Holiday and his view of VTI being a proxy for coronavirus. VTI has had only a day this week of stability. All in all I think your thinking is correct. Plus these funds distribute the EOM. More shares for free. Have 3 limit orders in for today.


@DrVenture wrote:

@Heim wrote:

I started buying this week. Sure the market may drop another 15-20% but if you wait until the bottom you won't get in. I'm only in about 30% of my position so far, so it's not like risk is that high. If it goes up I make money, if it goes down 20% I just add in next 40% of the position. ...


This! I posted elsewhere that if you wait until a clear upward trend emerges (say up 15% for a few days total) it will be no different then buying 15% before the bottom. Buying 15% before the bottom, and at the bottom, and 15% after the bottom would be a better strategy numerically. Even better buying 15% before the bottom and at the bottom and being done with it. It IS risky. Buying equities is risky on the best of days. I do understand if a person cannot tolerate the risk. I thrive in chaos, always have. Maybe someday it will get me.

Notice that there is a severe disconnect between the people who are seemingly convinced this is way overblown and simultaneously not acting on that conviction. Those who profess to believe in DCA and rebalancing and are seemingly frozen in place. Cognitive dissonance and compartmentalization, coupled with fear! I'm not recommending anything to anyone here. I'm not criticizing anyone else strategy. Just offering my viewpoint. I believe that the biggest factor in investing and economics is psychology. The herd mentality worked for the wildebeest and the nomadic tribes. It is difficult to overcome.

Previously I shifted 3.5% into equities. Today, I shifted another 3%. I'm fully prepared to shift another 3-8%. I plan to be solvent much longer than the market is irrational.


 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold several of my bond funds yesterday:

VICSX- Vang. Int. Term Corp bonds

VBILX- Vang. Int. Term Investment grade bonds

VEMBX- Vang. Emerg. Mkts. bonds

VWEAX- Vang. High Yield Bonds

Just seems like a  bunch of the traditionally "safer" bond funds are steadily falling, so put them in cash. Cash close to 10% now. Will continue to add to equities as the market continues to drop. I'm fortunate- pretty large portfolio (down a bunch since January), still two years until retirement, will have a pension plus two SS payments when we retire.

Win
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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold

VG Limited-Term Bond (TLH of approx $1,000) - can’t see continuing to hold a cash-like instrument that’s dropping

ORNAX (TLH - very small holding)

Exchanged hefty chunk of TIAA TREA to TIAA Traditional (stable value for 3% return)

Best of luck to us all.

Brian

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

The problem with this free-fall market is nothing seems safe.

I sold all my bond funds, other than BAGIX, aggregate bond fund, VUSFX, ultra short term bond fund and VFSUX, short term bond fund in my IRA. I have held on to some ultra short ETFs in my taxable account, where I purchased some stock as market dropped.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Bought 400 KO @ $41.59. Why?  Cuz coke addicts gotta have their fix!

Note to self: Add SBUX to my list of potential buys.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@Heim wrote:

I started buying this week. Sure the market may drop another 15-20% but if you wait until the bottom you won't get in. I'm only in about 30% of my position so far, so it's not like risk is that high. If it goes up I make money, if it goes down 20% I just add in next 40% of the position. Then if armageddon hits and market drops 50%+ then I add in the final 30% and kick back to watch the end of the world. If you buy in tranches like that, then worse case if the market drops 50%, your cost basis is still at the 40% level. I don't think the market will drop 70%, because during the 'Great Recession' it took 5 months to bottom out, but I think the market damage will be priced in long before that in this case. Polls show the majority of people don't think this virus is a serious threat (that thinking has increased 10% since last month), and I think there will be an uprising by the 90% of healthy people long before then. I think by the end of April people will say to reopen everything and if people get sick, they get sick. It won't end the health problem but will end the economic problem.

How do know where the bottom will be 15% or 20%?

helmut


 

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Yesterday sold balance of SEMPX to retain profit that was left.  Reconsidering my buy and hold philosophy. Will see how CEF's retain div's as they have previously.

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