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Frequent Contributor

What do you all think about RIV?

I was browsing through something in the CEF Analyzer a few days ago. I came across this one. I traded this one last year but not for a keep. The name "River North" struck me and that was the reason why I tried it last year.

Is it a good buy for keep?

TIA.

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What do you all think about RIV?


@ECEPROF wrote:

I was browsing through something in the CEF Analyzer a few days ago. I came across this one. I traded this one last year but not for a keep. The name "River North" struck me and that was the reason why I tried it last year.

Is it a good buy for keep?

TIA.

        Assuring it wasn’t the name it looks like a stretch for yield in bad times. Being a managed CEF the payout is under more pressure then a lower yielding position. They’ve been pulling a Ponzi and paying out ROC for two years. On the plus side leverage is very low. If I remember correctly the payout was supposed to be a steady 12.5% so a decrease to there at least might be in store.
   
         Under current conditions I’d wait until that payout drops and pick up more shares as an investment for possible future cap gains if your a trader or wait until after a vaccine but before a full economic recovery.


 

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Explorer ○○

Re: What do you all think about RIV?

 Some of us income oriented investors currently hold RIV in portfolio and have watched it for a while now [previously on our "Watch List"]. Running a B+ report card. With that said....

....Current "abbreviated" analysis data [COB Friday] on RIV [sole opinion]:

1... Report Card Grade: 86 [0-100 rating system]

Power Rating: 85 [must be higher than the RptCard grade for any further buy consideration]

2... Star Rating: Positive: 8star [0-10star reference with 10 being the max]

... !3-wk Star Rating: Positive 8.57 stars

3.. MktPrc: 15.35 [COB Friday]
-Analysis Score for MktPrc/NAV past week: 312 [>300 required for positive week]
-Last average weeks market activity on the MktPrc: +0.03 [investors have been Buying]
-Discount: +0.96 ... Negative for current investors. Considered "overbought" currently by investors]..

4... Dividend: 14.07% for new buyers [$0.18/Month ... $2.16/Yr] ... x-div 8-13, 9-15 ... Pay 8-31, 9-30
...Next distribution announcement expected approximately 10-11

5... Last Insider buying activity: 3/23/20 2,500sh @ 9.39

6... Rf [risk factor for holding in one's portfolio]: Very Positive +1.020 [+0 to + 1.003 range for analysis evaluation]

7.. NAV: 14.76 [COB Friday] ... Overvalued Currently
-Change in NAV last week: -$0.11
-Change in Intrinsic Value [COB Friday]: -$0.08

8... Total analysis numb3rs: 1700/2556 [requirement is 1000/1400 for normal trading range and >2000/2500 for current buying activity]

9... Disclosure: Some of us currently hold a Phase #2 position [4% - 6% of total portfolio]....

One "single opinion" of the many I am sure....

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Participant ○○○

Re: What do you all think about RIV?

Xray - Eddie (if that's you... didn't you used to post under that name?):  these numbers are of little use to anyone unless you are willing to explain your methodology. You seem to have an analytical system that you believe in, but presenting it as 'given' without explanation or substantiation is not of any use to anyone. 

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Explorer ○○○

Re: What do you all think about RIV?

RIV's managed distribution is based on the 5 day NAV average for the last trading days of 2019 and they have declared at least through September. If they don't change this, you should get the same distribution through the rest of the year.

Because they have been beaten down so much by the covid crisis, the NAV still has a little room to grow as we recover (no clue when). I don't think the NAV will recover to 2019 levels by the end of the year - and so I think the distributions will tank in 2021.

I plan to sell my shares (2.25% of port.) before then. Might be good for a short ride if you buy now. I'm not buying more.

Flute 

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Explorer ○

Re: What do you all think about RIV?

Historically this CEF has traded at a small discount to NAV.  It's now trading at a small premium to NAV.   The fund has entered into a sales agreement with Jones Trading.  As long as it's trading at a premium Jones Trading can sell additional new shares into the market.  This will tend to place a cap on the premium.  IMHO, I would avoid this CEF for now.  There may be a better opportunity to Buy in the future if the discount is greater than 5%.

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Explorer ○○

Re: What do you all think about RIV?


@keppelbay wrote:

Xray - Eddie (if that's you... didn't you used to post under that name?):  these numbers are of little use to anyone unless you are willing to explain your methodology. 


He won't unless you sign up for his services. This guy has been mooching for customers on this board for years, luring them up with his nonseses.

What's regrettable is that Morningstar tolerates this.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What do you all think about RIV?

@ECEPROF , River North is a Chicago neighborhood close to you. There are many businesses there with River North in their names, including River North Capital that runs RIV, etc. Why is that alone attractive?   https://www.choosechicago.com/neighborhoods/river-north/

YBB
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Explorer ○○

Re: What do you all think about RIV?

To keppelbay...

 We all have different ways of analyzing securities and some of us express "single opinions" [time to time] to give a opinion on a particular security being asked about [and that we either we have in portfolio or on our "Watch List" and know about]. Since it is a single opinion, we do "not" want or try or to influence anyone [one way or another] but will share what our "single opinionated" analysis data indicates....

 Our [you, me and other] individual data looks at securities in many different ways. My analysis methodology is using "complex computer math" as a way to find undervalued securities. Yours, or others, will use "many" different ways to analyze securities [that many of us will not understand]. If/when I see a posted security analysis of interest, I always try to work it into my system for comparison to see if we agree or disagree. If disagreeing, we should always try to look into our own analysis methodology for possible correction since our investing capital is being put to risk into a market that is very high and also very volatile. If we agree on a posted security being analyzed, we will then have a better control of how many shares we will be buying....

 None of us can basically understand each other analysis variations being presented from others but should always be thankful that some investors have made a pro/con comment to possibly assist them [or help]. Morningstar has lost a lot of pro/con opinions by many very good analysts [that I used to converse with] because of individuals who want what they want and do not use their analysis as a method to invest in a good security to meet their individual yearly goals and objectives....

 I have been using my type of methodology since the 1990's when Morningstar was running their excellent training program in CEF's. It has served me and others well if/when I post concurring and opposing viewpoints....

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What do you all think about RIV?


@yogibearbull wrote:

@ECEPROF , River North is a Chicago neighborhood close to you. There are many businesses there with River North in their names, including River North Capital that runs RIV, etc. Why is that alone attractive?   https://www.choosechicago.com/neighborhoods/river-north/


I know it. After looking at the picture, it struck me immediately. The office is located in the next building where we own a rental unit. That should not be reason why I should I buy it anyway.

Thanks folks for all you input. I will stay away from that because I have open-ended ETFs - VTI, VGT, and QQQ - for equity exposure. MS blew away the earnings today. I hope that I can make a ton of money tomorrow.

The only security that was down today in portfolio was PCI. All others -  8 of them were up, including all my BDCs. I have some good CGs in these BDCs but I am not selling any of them.

 

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