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2020 Hindsight (long!)

Random observations on markets, funds, and life during a time of plague

* firstly, do everything possible so that you and your loved survive this.  set up containment quarters where ever you live, stock up on essentials, understand how an illness might develop and how it could be managed in your current situation.  hospitals are overwhelmed and aren't going to be safer/better than recovering at home for most people who get infected.  both the NYT/WSJ have some articles on what people would need, and steps they would have to take to survive.  we've had a friend die from this and more survive (and i'm sure everywhere here already knows comparables) so there are actions one can take on the margin that may help, or at least psychologically make one feel better.  on a more depressing note, preparations should also include  planning for what family has do if one doesn't survive.  if you have a complicated financial/family situation that may require a session with a lawyer.  but even basic documents explaining what everything going on will be of immense help to survivors; at the least it should cover housekeeping like: accounts, safe deposits, storage units, real property, insurance policies, pensions, employer benefits, autos, items custodied at other places etc.  do this while in a healthy situation.

* with that out of the way, consider your personal cash flow table closely.  most of this that is fixed with the liabilities people owe every month - property tax, rents, utility bills and so on.  But there may be freak cash requirements that flare up: a hospital that requires a payment for admittance, a family member whose housing complex is condemned due to infection and needs cash to move, and so on.  cash flows are also affected by expected income, and of course, those are stressed too.  if one is collecting rents or relying on employment income - clearly plenty of tenants are unable/unwilling to pay and with 22mm jobless claims in the last few weeks there is a huge loss in wage/salary income.  even professions that have historically been well insulated against the business cycle are getting hit.  (to wit: a friend who is a doctor at a big specialty practice had to a lay off 80% of their staff and all doctor/partners went to a $0 draw situation.)  for those who rely on investment portfolio income some guidelines to consider.  Equities dividends tend to track earnings, so as those drop, divs will too.  In the GFC, global divs dropped peak to trough about 25% although they eventually recovered and surpassed the old high, but it would take a half decade or so.  Some sectors will see much worse change (e.g. malls, hotels etc.).  Bond coupon income drops too, and may be much harder to recover.  Rates have gone down for default free bonds, and for credit risky bonds defaults will go up.  (the last reports I read last night suggest a 10% default rate is a reasonable estimate)  In general most investors have been experiencing low defaults (say 2%) over the last expansion cycle.  So income / NAV will be going down from bond funds.  Bake all that into your personal cash flow table, if you have been relying on portfolio / passive style income.

* For a variety of reasons, our household cannot obtain as much life insurance as we would prefer.  We compensate by carrying a blend of risky bond like holdings + cash like holdings.  The first component behaved as expected, even under a stress situation.  The second sleeve which was supposed to be more NAV stable ... didn't.  That cash like sleeve was a ladder (in terms of risk) of bank deposits, MMFs, short term non 2a7 ETFs (MINT/NEAR etc), a CP fund, and then a unlevered structured credit fund.  The latter two took much bigger mtm hits than I would expected, 7% for the CP and 15% for securitized.  The CP has recovered a little, and presumably as names pay off at par, should claw back.  The credit one probably will not, since unemployment is going to be pretty high, and that affects whether people pay off auto loans, credit cards, 2nd liens and all the stuff that goes into the crazy ABS world.  So those turned out to be slight surprises, as I had hoped to use some of them to rebalance in the last 30 or so days.  Instead, MINT turned out to be the source of funds.  I suspect there are investors who are  more shocked by these moves.  Which segues into my next point....

* some of these (previously!) stable funds have had massive boosts in their AUM in the last few years.  they have engaged wholesalers + distribution agents and gone on the hustings for AUM.  These are pretty low returning strategies in an absolute sense (maybe expected net returns in a perfect world of 4%) so paying 100-150 bps in fees and 12b1s always seemed strange to me, but people do it.  illiquid markets with consistent inflows end up looking much better during the upcycle for people who use quant metrics to assess funds (Sharpes etc.)  The main protection against that, if you don't know the underlying assets well, is to determine if the returns are auto correlated.  If they are, that can be a danger sign, and suggests liquidity could be a problem.  The shock moves in some of the worst names (IOFIX, SEMMX etc.) showed the danger was there.  They suffered drops that were 4-5x their expected returns, which is a bad ratio to me.  Those all reminded me of TFCIX maybe back in late 2014.  My feel is that the end game for that ilk is a liquidating trust structure.  It's very hard to be fair to redeemers and 'stayers' in any other way.  And of course, that's not the bargain that the capital was raised under.

* non traded REIT s are pregnant with that same devil spawn baby too!  some of the custodians who have big business lines supporting FA's who sell those (LPL etc.) have stopped accepting new subscriptions in those since no one knows if the NAVs are correct (likely overstated) and some of the REITs of have suspended redemption's.  There is even one which has stopped its regular rent distributions.  Much of the original rationale (which to me was always stretched) for these vehicles makes no sense now, and one should note this is 2nd or 3rd time the industry has had this issue.  The big kahuna in this space, Blackstone, will be the bellwether to watch.  If that gets locked down, I'm not sure how the industry will recover that business, as they will have a lot of angry intermediaries getting heat from their doctors & dentist clients.  Perhaps BX can figure out other ways to provide liquidity to exiting shareholders since they have a strong sponsor with some billionaires who could do things the Schorch types can't.  But first they have to mark the structure; even that isn't simple and is going to cause plenty of heartache, esp. if redemption's are allowed.  

* which segues into NAV!  There are times and places when 'NAV style investing' as described by Marty Whitman in his classic letters and books, works well.  I don't think is one of those times.  NAV is hard to ascertain, and is shifting (mostly down!), which blows up the general idea of buy cheap, and ride the roller coaster, then sell less cheap.  When trading around CEFs the volatility of discount/premia changes sets some bounds on the additional edge the active investor can add.  Maybe one buys at -10% and sells at -5% and just rinse, lathers, repeats during the cycle.  However when NAV itself becomes very volatile and has a 20-30% type of volatility that game doesn't make sense.  Whatever edge one pursuing that strategy gets overwhelmed with the underlying noise in the NAV.  So one needs to have strong, informed views on where the NAV is going to make it work.  In particular, I see a lot of articles on the wretched CLO equity funds/structures, and discussions on how they are all cheap w/r/t some reported NAV.  That is crazy to me.  God knows what NAV really is, as its a mess to even mark the dodgier tranches, and who knows what will happen to the Z pieces over the next year.  My personal instinct is that these crazy funds will end up in the 1 handle or something.  There is a good reason why firms with genuine franchises were never willing to offer pure plays in these.  The reputation damage that happens after these get effectively zero'd wipes out years and years of diligent efforts in other products, good client service, and thoughtful investor communications.  

* there are lots of other spaces where the bards are singing the NAV fable - REITs, mREITs, BDCs and so on.  Right now, no one knows how to appraise rarely traded chunky properties.  There are stories of retail landlords collecting 25-40% of their April rents; plenty of hotel properties with 10% occupancy rates.  In residential space, which ought to be more robust, there are jurisdictions which are banning eviction for non payment.  It's difficult to know what a commercial property - being valued on some multiple of its rents - is worth when the rents are unknown/volatile/declining.  All of that feeds into the loans that are associated with said property, which are the purvey of the mREITs.  It looks like the agency RMBS sector has won some policy support (Fed etc) but the white label paper has no white knight riding up to save them.  It didn't help their case that for the last decade they had resisted any supervision from Washington (and thus control over exec comp!) so in their time of need they found no friends at Mnuchin & Co.'s Bailouts-R-Us.  My personal view is that BDCs will see the same thing happen too: if one stylizes their portfolio its just a ton of loans to sponsor backed non essential businesses: 13% loans to pool supply cos, or 12% paper from yoga studios, pet grooming salons, teeth brightening shops etc.  These are either deep cyclical, specialty retail, or luxury services that a cruel new world of 17+% u/e rates will no longer tolerate.

* high quality co's have - at least in market prices - handled this downdraft better than I would have expected.  ACWV, SCHD, EFAV, VIG etc. toughed it out better than junky bonds.  keep an eye on the divs, which is mgmt's estimate of how business has been long term impacted.  The US financial sector seems to pretty intent on paying their owners, but they are not really asking for much of a bailout currently, and if anything, are being even a bit proactive with forebearance.  (See BAC for some surprising humanity).  The unhealthy EU banks are not in such a position, and as part of their bailouts, are cutting divs/bonuses.  I guess it shows that the big US banks learned something over the last decade. (or maybe their prudential supervision did)  Still a long term world with interest rates flat-lining make it hard for regulated financials to make money.  Most financial firms fundamentally need a positive sloped yield curve to provide their services (credit inter-mediation, maturity transformation, risk sharing etc.).  They can tolerate temporary bouts of a flat/inverted curve; over the long haul its much harder.  Look at the long term track record of Japanese financials once their bubble broke and the BOJ started QE decades before the West did.  (Levered credit, in a world of deleveraging corps sort of worked in Japan though)

* as always, keep an eye on co-investors and governance.  if fellow travelers in an investment vehicle have taken out margin loans on their holdings, there's additional volatility as/if/when a downdraft hits, and some margin clerk somewhere hits the 'sell' button, immune to the desperate wailings of a CEO and his relationship banker.  this happened in mREIT land too, not just equities.  The real cheap funding forms - overnight repo - come with that bargain: they are not flexible when things go wrong.  If repo was a murky, confusing bargain the financing supply (money market funds, real money asset owners, etc.) would not be willing to provide finance under those terms.  Mark to Market dependent financing is dangerous but cheap for that reason.  I can't understand how firms which blew up on this just weeks ago are out raising new investment funds currently.  It doesn't speak to a risk aware culture, even if an IR person claims that was in some other investment class silo.  "Oh so what if we blew up the distressed CRE loan fund, this new distressed corp credit fund won't have that happen, because the staff involved in that are 3 cubicles away...."  

* maintain the focus on long term financial objectives, rather than performance metrics.  most people don't own assets for the entertainment value of playing the investment game: the assets are there to meet needs.  if you can meet all your needs/goals with what you have, it doesn't really matter if someone else did better or worse.  undoubtedly, after this shakes out, there will be investors irate with their advisors (paid or not) and go looking for new ones.  there will always be someone who timed cash moves perfectly, and their siren song will be hard to resist, since 20/20 hindsight is the best.  instead, i suggest looking at the road maps one has been provided and if they were sensible a priori.  if one wants to cross check their investment counsel, there are plenty of firms that will provide low cost/gratis plans (vanguard, schwab etc.) that are worth a look, even if they are not going to be customized for personal circumstances.  (in general if you have those issues unique to you, you'll know about it and it should not be some massive surprise)

* muni bonds were hard hit in the last couple of months.  some have legit long term problems (look at the MTA, yikes! ridership down 90%, and farebox revenue is typically a big component of their cash flow, and they have a 45 bln in paper out there....) but there are others which have ok situations, and better risk profiles, yet were hit with the general need for investors to find liquidity somewhere.  additionally there is a belief that fiscal/monetary policy will end up supporting the muni space.  it's more tolerable for society to provide support for chicago public schools rather some casino mortgage loan B piece held by a hf.  it hasn't fully shaken out yet, and the Fed is (legitimately) leery of getting too involved here.  They don't want to be in the position of asking some locality to pay back a note at the expense of raising taxes, or laying off cops/teachers/sanitation.  Blue states need unified control of Federal government to get the full bailout they might hope for, but even they don't achieve that, there is  potential for positive surprises to happen in the muni sector this year.  (I mean good in the sense of helping the bond prices go up, or ratings downgrades being postponed etc.  I doubt society is better off in the long run letting the Detroits, PRCs etc never fix their issues but that's a discussion for another time).

* some employers are offering staff golden handshakes, pension lump-sum buyouts, early retirement packages etc.  in some cases they are doing this because they have accepted support that came with 'no layoff' provisions, so a voluntary program may be their only path to resize.  companies typically don't give enough time to fully consider these, considering the huge stakes involved, maybe a few weeks if one is lucky.  if offered one of these, talking to co workers is fine to get their input, but this is a one time no do over decision, so it is worth getting professional advice.  if you get it on a fee only / hourly paid basis you have a better chance of avoiding bias in the opinion.  if health care insurance support is offered, try to understand what it really entails; most likely it will not be real contractual support.  employers can do things like push (early) retirees to o-care/exchanges, or simply carve up their risk pools between actives/retirees, or a million other ways to abrogate the promise once it become inconvenient/painful.  (e.g. one of our local employers sent letters to their retirees in August telling them that all spouses were being removed from retiree health care plans for the Fall enrollment, and suggested the obamacare website as a place to check out!) be careful about taking a lump sum of a pension in particular - its very hard to replicate that structure in today's market and almost certainly the employer will not be offering a value that approximates today's interest rates.  annuities/pensions are one of the only deflation/depression fighting instruments ordinary people may have access to.  (delaying social security is mostly comparable too, there are specialist firms who provide counsel in that space such as Kolotnikoffs)  the worst of all worlds is taking the lump sum, watching interest rates grind down, and then 3 years later in the next down cycle of lower rates / higher credit losses....annuitizing it with an insurance company at a much lower imputed rate.  (i've seen that happen to friends/family; its frustrating) . for most corporate / public pensions, generally one does not have to worry about default risk.  the exceptions to that are (a) if one has retired very early, with a big package, from a stressed corp employer that will likely flip its obligations over to PBGC (b) the hapless multi employer union run plans like Central States (c) a non ERISA promise from an ecclesiastic affiliate (diocese run hospital, church book publisher etc.), or (d) an Illinois, Puerto Rico (or similar stressed sub-sovereigns) pension .  Those are all edge cases and even if they blow up, it doesn't happen instantly.  Health care promises will likely break far earlier, even for non damaged sponsors, simply because there is less legal protections for that.  

As always, I post to hear feedback, especially where people provide an opposing view point.  It's helpful to hear where I'm missing something.   So please chime in if willing.  

16 Replies
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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

You mentioned looking at Japanese financials from the time of their equity bubble popping decades ago. I don't really know where to start, can you give a brief synopsis of what happened?

 

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

Thanks for your well thought out perspective on the market and this pandemic.  Perhaps the wisest and most sage advice I've read in a long time exists here:

* and finally maintain the focus on long term financial objectives, rather than performance metrics.  most people don't own assets for the entertainment value of playing the investment game.  they are there to meet needs.  if you can meet all your needs with what you have, it doesn't really matter if someone else did better or worse.  undoubtedly, after the shakes out, there will investors irate with their advisors, and go looking for new ones.  there will always be someone who timed the cash moves perfectly, and their siren song will be hard resist, since 2020 hindsight is the best.  instead, i suggest looking at the road maps one has been provided and if they were sensible a priori.  if one wants to cross check their investment counsel, there are plenty of firms that will provide low cost/gratis plans (vanguard, schwab etc.) that are worth a look, even if they are not going to be customized for personal circumstances.  in general if you have those kinds of issues, you'll know about it and it should not be some massive surprise.

 

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

Nearly 6 years into my retirement, this market has given me a finer appreciation for William Bernstein's rhetorical "When you’ve won the game, why keep playing it?" Just last week, I calculated that my fat pile of cash can keep me out of trouble for (my) forever and what's left to play with is what I consider house money.

Great post, aub.

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

@aubergine  Great post, one of the best I've read in quite some time.  Some very, very thoughtful observations and comments.

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

wayoutwest:Nearly 6 years into my retirement, this market has given me a finer appreciation for William Bernstein's rhetorical "When you’ve won the game, why keep playing it?" Just last week, I calculated that my fat pile of cash can keep me out of trouble for (my) forever and what's left to play with is what I consider house money.

I never held a large amount of cash LT and probably never will. BND performed so much better than cash/MM (link) and YTD is up too.

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

 

Thanks aubergine

Need to digest a little while.

R48

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

Certainly lots of lessons and things for me to ponder, in this most uncertain of times.  I usually hate to hear the word "uncertainty" when it comes to the market, but this is miles beyond the continuous, everyday uncertainty of markets and life.  Even though I did start buying two individual stocks last month, Coca Cola and Wells Fargo, I also started investing in three mutual funds.  

This might seem counterintuitive, considering that I did buy the two stocks, but overall, my eyes have been opened to how stocks that have been great investments for a long time all of a sudden were some of the worst stocks to own.  Energy, casinos, hotels and motels, and many more.  You get the idea.  So I'll pacify my inner pretensions of being a stock market operator by buying a stock here and there.  But the majority of my money is going to go into mutual funds (actively managed), on the off chance that seasoned fund managers might be able to run a stock portfolio better than me.

Off and on over the last year or so, I had been semi-serious about buying a bit of gold and silver, and I could never make up my mind whether it would be better to buy physical gold and silver, or the corresponding ETFs.  There is a coin shop within easy walking distance of my apartment, very reputable.  And I am on a mailing list for JM Bullion out of Texas, and from what I could see after running some inquiries was that they looked legit.  So if I went the physical route, I was going to buy through the mail from JM Bullion, to avoid a bigger markup at the coin shop, and sell to the shop if and when I needed/wanted to.  And I would store the items in a safety deposit box at my credit union.  Well, like just about everyone else, I sure wasn't expecting businesses to be closed up for an extended period of time.  Nothing that couldn't be overcome, but it would take a few days, and that's not good.  So that's one lesson.  If I do buy and gold and/or silver it will be through ETFs in my Charles Schwab account.

I forget who put up the post about not playing the game if you've already won, and he was content to have a big wad of cash that could take him for several years.  While I'm buying stocks and mutual funds right now, it's only because the prices are depressed so much.  If and when the market sustains a significant move to the upside, I'll keep what I have but not buy more, and just start accumulating cash.  I've always liked to have a nice cash balance, and after this coronavirus thing, I really, really, really don't care if someone else thinks holding cash is a mug's game.  I've quoted him before, but my favorite economist, Woody Allen said "I've never been in a situation where having cash made it worse".  

And I'll close on a more down to earth subject, stocking up for an emergency.  Two or three years ago, I started the practice of stocking up on nonperishables right before cold weather set in.  I didn't want to be dealing with bulky items like paper towels and toilet paper, or heavy and bulky items like cat litter, in crappy winter weather.  And I gradually found myself staying stocked up as much as possible year-round, since I live in Delaware and we get a lot of backwash from hurricanes going up the eastern seaboard, and every great once in a while we'll get something like Superstorm Sandy that makes landfall and scares the beejezus out of everybody - and knocks out the power, and shuts everything down for a while.  It really helped me that I had plenty of essentials already laid in when the virus came to town.  You don't have to stock up all at once, but whenever you are shopping, buy a couple of extra items, cans of soup, whatever.  And buy stuff you wouldn't mind having to eat.  I still look at cans of beef stew and think, that might be a good thing to stock up on, and then remember that the few times I've actually tried canned beef stew, I was underwhelmed.  So if I bought any, it would probably just sit in my pantry forever.  Anyway, Aubergine said he wanted comments, so for what it's worth, these are some of my thoughts.

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

Thank you, aubergine! That may be the best post I've ever seen on M*. Obviously a lot of thought and care went in to this community service post. I plan to copy and paste this into another document to refer to often. Please take good care and stay well. rm

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

         Well I agree about not investing anymore when you’ve won the game or if you can’t stand the downside of investing. If events like these are a surprise you might be better off with professional help. I do feel if you hold cash and keep adding to it your maintaining your buying power. These are only prime investment opportunities to us. We income invest so values only matter to heirs or a LTC facility. As always any market slumps are accompanied by human suffering.

          While markets “may” provide more upside long term the older you get the less “long term” you have. This will go away some day like all the other economic shocks. It’s hard for me to believe after 2 million years of evolution I will be here for the end of mankind. Certainly the odds of a market recovery are better then that. My own long term has even shorter odds. Ha. Ha.

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

Best paragraph:

"* maintain the focus on long term financial objectives, rather than performance metrics. most people don't own assets for the entertainment value of playing the investment game: the assets are there to meet needs. if you can meet all your needs/goals with what you have, it doesn't really matter if someone else did better or worse. undoubtedly, after this shakes out, there will investors irate with their advisors (paid or not) and go looking for new ones. there will always be someone who timed the cash moves perfectly, and their siren song will be hard to resist, since 2020 hindsight is the best. instead, i suggest looking at the road maps one has been provided and if they were sensible a priori. if one wants to cross check their investment counsel, there are plenty of firms that will provide low cost/gratis plans (vanguard, schwab etc.) that are worth a look, even if they are not going to be customized for personal circumstances. (in general if you have those specific issues unique to you, you'll know about it and it should not be some massive surprise)"

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

@aubergine 

Like others, great post, and a good summary of the debt markets.

"maintain the focus on long term financial objectives, rather than performance metrics. most people don't own assets for the entertainment value of playing the investment game: the assets are there to meet needs."

In basic terms, it has always been stocks for growth, bonds for income, with stock market returns in the 10% range, SD risks in the 18% range, and bond market returns in the 6% range (all nominal).  What I wrestle with these days is the possibility that stock market returns are flat, or negative, for, say, the next decade while bond market returns are in the 3% range or so, going forward!

Setting aside leverage considerations for a moment, ifn my long term, say, 10 years, financial objective is to have my investments worth twice what they are worth, today, I would use the Rule of 72 to invest in something that I expect to return about 7%/year for the next 10 years.

Let alone whether we are in stagflation, deflation, or inflation.  I'm talking about the markets and investments, not the economy.

I don't have an answer.  I'm just expanding on your question!

Personally, I'm happy that my 'long term' isn't out 30-40 years, like the younguns.  I'm planning to get into next year!  8-))

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)


@steelpony10 wrote:

         Well I agree about not investing anymore when you’ve won the game or if you can’t stand the downside of investing.


In football, if you are up by 21 points at the start of the 4th quarter, you have almost "won the game" and play conservatively on offense (more running than passing) in order to maximize the chances of winning. It does not matter if you win by 1 point or 31 points.

Investing and spending are different. More money is always useful, and I don't think there is a monetary cliff below which life suddenly becomes unpleasant. If things go better than expected, you can spend more on nice things and give to your children and charities. On the downside, for the relatively affluent people who have money to invest, there are many ways to reduce spending.

So I think you should keep investing and taking reasonable risks even when you have reached financial goals. In general the world would be poorer if rich people did not take risks and demanded absolute safety instead of making investments with positive expected value.

 

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)


@marymary wrote:

Thanks for your well thought out perspective on the market and this pandemic.  Perhaps the wisest and most sage advice I've read in a long time exists here:

* and finally maintain the focus on long term financial objectives, rather than performance metrics.  most people don't own assets for the entertainment value of playing the investment game.  they are there to meet needs.  if you can meet all your needs with what you have, it doesn't really matter if someone else did better or worse.  undoubtedly, after the shakes out, there will investors irate with their advisors, and go looking for new ones.  there will always be someone who timed the cash moves perfectly, and their siren song will be hard resist, since 2020 hindsight is the best.  instead, i suggest looking at the road maps one has been provided and if they were sensible a priori.  if one wants to cross check their investment counsel, there are plenty of firms that will provide low cost/gratis plans (vanguard, schwab etc.) that are worth a look, even if they are not going to be customized for personal circumstances.  in general if you have those kinds of issues, you'll know about it and it should not be some massive surprise.

 

Agreed fully.  A lot of the write-up is beyond me and not applicable to my situation; but this part is general for all; especially the portion in bold.  All my sense but cannot write it out so concisely and precisely. 

 


 

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)


@DJANG0 wrote:

You mentioned looking at Japanese financials from the time of their equity bubble popping decades ago. I don't really know where to start, can you give a brief synopsis of what happened?

 


Here's the banks, for exampleSnag_576902b5.png

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

Thank you for your words of wisdom and many contributions to this board.

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Re: 2020 Hindsight (long!)

@aubergine ,

Thanks for the chart.

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