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Explorer ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

My Old Average Bond Funds I've Hidden alot of Stoelen over paid Income $ for Yrs to this day..

BSV-Short Term(But if your taller than 6ft? Sorry can't get it.

BIV-Intermediate Bond fund 

BLV-Long term and beyond the grave..( Unless being Like me, creamated and I plan to have 5-$10k bundles of $50 bills burned with me just to aggravate my worthless heirs!

GTO- a little New Aggressive  Bond fund

PCI-A Reckless Clsed End Fund that follows the Stock market- More like a Stock than should be a bond, but outrageous Dividends

My Biggest Surprise? My Retirement State of Wi.'s Utility> WEC and LNT stock..been adding to it every yr..since I retired back in 05'..Now over 40% in it for my trustee to play with it!

With Extra $ made from these guys( made since14')..once I got up $25k bought some TECL-300% Leveraged Techs..

but only with Extra $ you can afford to loose 50% , otherwise-R stay out!

And don't go giving $ to Charities until you die in your will..I knew some guy had $5 million and his wife spent it all and left him and he died broke and had donated over $1 million while in his last 10 yrs..!

Peace Brodder.. I'm the last of the guys that got Drafted, now, the rest all died .( of old Age) but The Good old US of ARMY gave us all a Present.. Got COPD and many of us kept on Smoking when we got out, all hooked..and I hate people who say..Thanks for your Service!  If the troop didn't Enlist? He was Drafted and Forced to served and Shoot People!  didn't he? so don't thank him, jusy say, your Sorry you got Drafted, but glad you did and went in , iinstead of my Dad or I wouldn't have been born..living this Good Life! 

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

I know this is OT. Hey limoman. Good to hear from you. Peace brodder, rm

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@dtconroe wrote:

@perrywinkle wrote:

Has anyone found muni bond funds with SD <3,duration < 5 and distribution yield > 3% (or at least > 2.7%) which have held up well in the recent market?  BTMIX (and others that have been suggested) yield <2%).  My search on Schwab has not turned up anything but maybe I missed something.  I currently hold NVHAX, which fits the bill, but it showed some cracks like other HY munis last week.


Have you looked at AAHMX--its SD is 1.29, duration is 2.77, TTM distribution yield is 2.75%, has held up well in the recent market? I would also mention VWAHX--SD 2.88, Duration 6.13, TTM Distribution Yield is 3.20, and it has held up well in the recent market turmoil--I know the duration is a  bit longer than your criteria but it is a well known Muni fund that is highly regarded.


@dtconroe:  I did look at AAHMX based on your original post. A couple of things gave me pause.  First, I typically stay away from funds with less than $500M in assets, particularly ones that have been around a while.  AAHMX is $284M  after 6+ years.  Also, as FD mentioned, the monthly distributions seem to be trending down, which may be due to the general interest rate environment but their Q4 commentary also discussed some missteps in asset selection in the BB rated holdings. 

Date                  Price     Income  ST CG    LT CG     ROC      Total

Feb 28, 202010.370.02280.00000.00000.00000.0228
Jan 31, 202010.330.02170.00000.00000.00000.0217
Dec 31, 201910.250.02400.00000.00000.00000.0240
Nov 29, 201910.250.02440.00000.00000.00000.0244
Oct 31, 201910.250.02440.00000.00000.00000.0244
Sep 30, 201910.250.02400.00000.00000.00000.0240
Aug 30, 201910.300.02340.00000.00000.00000.0234
Jul 31, 201910.230.02380.00000.00000.00000.0238
Jun 28, 201910.210.02510.00000.00000.00000.0251
May 31, 201910.210.02430.00000.00000.00000.0243

 

VWAHX / VWALX is a favorite long time holding of mine and has held up pretty well and I may add to it.  It's too bad you can't buy the Admiral Shares (VWALX) at Schwab other than through an advisor.  You also can't add to existing Admiral Shares as a retail client. 

Thanks for taking the time to respond to my post.

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Contributor ○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@RetiredLimoman wrote:

My Old Average Bond Funds I've Hidden alot of Stoelen over paid Income $ for Yrs to this day..

BSV-Short Term(But if your taller than 6ft? Sorry can't get it.

BIV-Intermediate Bond fund 

BLV-Long term and beyond the grave..( Unless being Like me, creamated and I plan to have 5-$10k bundles of $50 bills burned with me just to aggravate my worthless heirs!

GTO- a little New Aggressive  Bond fund

PCI-A Reckless Clsed End Fund that follows the Stock market- More like a Stock than should be a bond, but outrageous Dividends

My Biggest Surprise? My Retirement State of Wi.'s Utility> WEC and LNT stock..been adding to it every yr..since I retired back in 05'..Now over 40% in it for my trustee to play with it!

With Extra $ made from these guys( made since14')..once I got up $25k bought some TECL-300% Leveraged Techs..

but only with Extra $ you can afford to loose 50% , otherwise-R stay out!

And don't go giving $ to Charities until you die in your will..I knew some guy had $5 million and his wife spent it all and left him and he died broke and had donated over $1 million while in his last 10 yrs..!

Peace Brodder.. I'm the last of the guys that got Drafted, now, the rest all died .( of old Age) but The Good old US of ARMY gave us all a Present.. Got COPD and many of us kept on Smoking when we got out, all hooked..and I hate people who say..Thanks for your Service!  If the troop didn't Enlist? He was Drafted and Forced to served and Shoot People!  didn't he? so don't thank him, jusy say, your Sorry you got Drafted, but glad you did and went in , iinstead of my Dad or I wouldn't have been born..living this Good Life! 

 


Hi Dennis The Menace (aka DTM, RetiredLimoman) ...  Good to hear from you.  Glad you are still ticking after taking a licking.  I love your comment about about heirs.  I feel the same way.  Got the millennial heirs.  Very selfish bunch.  Hey, how and who did you decide to be your trustee and administrator of your trust.  I need to solve that problem, probably sooner than later.  Also, I disagree with your comment about being drafted.  I do thank you for your service.  You could have fled to Canada instead and  if everybody did that where would we be???  Ciao ciao DTM.  

P.S.  Comment on bonds, the whole yield curve is below 1% today.  Not a good way to make money.  Gundlach on CNBC the other day said probably best to be in cash.  

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

Do you think he is serious about that statement? Doubleline has no MMF I am aware of. That sure sounds negative for a man in his position.


@PaulR888 wrote:

@RetiredLimoman wrote:

My Old Average Bond Funds I've Hidden alot of Stoelen over paid Income $ for Yrs to this day..

BSV-Short Term(But if your taller than 6ft? Sorry can't get it.

BIV-Intermediate Bond fund 

BLV-Long term and beyond the grave..( Unless being Like me, creamated and I plan to have 5-$10k bundles of $50 bills burned with me just to aggravate my worthless heirs!

GTO- a little New Aggressive  Bond fund

PCI-A Reckless Clsed End Fund that follows the Stock market- More like a Stock than should be a bond, but outrageous Dividends

My Biggest Surprise? My Retirement State of Wi.'s Utility> WEC and LNT stock..been adding to it every yr..since I retired back in 05'..Now over 40% in it for my trustee to play with it!

With Extra $ made from these guys( made since14')..once I got up $25k bought some TECL-300% Leveraged Techs..

but only with Extra $ you can afford to loose 50% , otherwise-R stay out!

And don't go giving $ to Charities until you die in your will..I knew some guy had $5 million and his wife spent it all and left him and he died broke and had donated over $1 million while in his last 10 yrs..!

Peace Brodder.. I'm the last of the guys that got Drafted, now, the rest all died .( of old Age) but The Good old US of ARMY gave us all a Present.. Got COPD and many of us kept on Smoking when we got out, all hooked..and I hate people who say..Thanks for your Service!  If the troop didn't Enlist? He was Drafted and Forced to served and Shoot People!  didn't he? so don't thank him, jusy say, your Sorry you got Drafted, but glad you did and went in , iinstead of my Dad or I wouldn't have been born..living this Good Life! 

 


Hi Dennis The Menace (aka DTM, RetiredLimoman) ...  Good to hear from you.  Glad you are still ticking after taking a licking.  I love your comment about about heirs.  I feel the same way.  Got the millennial heirs.  Very selfish bunch.  Hey, how and who did you decide to be your trustee and administrator of your trust.  I need to solve that problem, probably sooner than later.  Also, I disagree with your comment about being drafted.  I do thank you for your service.  You could have fled to Canada instead and  if everybody did that where would we be???  Ciao ciao DTM.  

P.S.  Comment on bonds, the whole yield curve is below 1% today.  Not a good way to make money.  Gundlach on CNBC the other day said probably best to be in cash.  


 

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

Gary: "Do you think he is serious about that statement? Doubleline has no MMF I am aware of. That sure sounds negative for a man in his position."

Gundlach talks alot, but I bet he is not cashing out his holdings in his mutual funds.  As a brokerage client at Schwab, I clearly would go to my Schwab money market account, if I decided to sell any Doubleline fund I own, which I don't.  I suspect Gundlach, as the Chief Marketing Officer, at Doubleline, wants you to sell all your other nonDoubleline mutual funds, go to your own cash choice, and then reinvest it in Doubleline when you are ready to come out of cash.

On a more realistic note, if you wanted to stay at Doubleline in some super safe mutual fund, you would probably look at DBULX/DLUSX or DBLSX/DLSNX.  There a number of posters who prefer the safety of an ultrashort bond oef fund, as close enough to cash.

 

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

I still own DBLSX and it has behaved well during this correction. I too am at Schwab so my DBLSX would be redeemed there. It appeared to be an irresponsible statement by Gundlach but I do not know the context. 


@dtconroe wrote:

Gary: "Do you think he is serious about that statement? Doubleline has no MMF I am aware of. That sure sounds negative for a man in his position."

Gundlach talks alot, but I bet he is not cashing out his holdings in his mutual funds.  As a brokerage client at Schwab, I clearly would go to my Schwab money market account, if I decided to sell any Doubleline fund I own, which I don't.  I suspect Gundlach, as the Chief Marketing Officer, at Doubleline, wants you to sell all your other nonDoubleline mutual funds, go to your own cash choice, and then reinvest it in Doubleline when you are ready to come out of cash.

On a more realistic note, if you wanted to stay at Doubleline in some super safe mutual fund, you would probably look at DBULX/DLUSX or DBLSX/DLSNX.  There a number of posters who prefer the safety of an ultrashort bond oef fund, as close enough to cash.

 


 

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Contributor ○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

Hi Gary ...   I need to run out and do some things but here is full video of Gundlach with Wapner.  

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/05/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-jeffrey-gundlach.html?&qsearch...

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Valued Contributor

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@PaulR888 wrote:

Hi Gary ...   I need to run out and do some things but here is full video of Gundlach with Wapner.  

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/05/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-jeffrey-gundlach.html?&qsearch...


Gundlach lost his credibility when he predicted in 11/2016 that rates are going to 6% in the next 4-5 years(link).

I stopped listening to him years ago.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

Interesting Mr. Gundlach felt we were near the bottom when the 10 year was at .9% yield. Today it is .5%. He was quite right when he said  "you would be better off in cash" at .9%. Who doesn't know we are headed towards 0% rates?

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Follower ○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

@dtconroe What did we/you learn today?

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Valued Contributor

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@dtconroe wrote:

Given the recent turmoil in the markets, that has led to a correction, and threatens to become a recession, I thought it might be appropriate to start a thread for "more conservative investors".  The thread attempts to talk about Bond OEFs, that are lower risk, in their bond categories, that might be appropriate for longer term investors, who would like to stay as fully invested as possible.  To get started, I am listing a few funds, in the Multisector Bond, NonTraditional Bond, HY Muni Bond, and Short Term Bond categories.  All of these funds carry a M* Risk Rating of "Low" in their M* categories, and I am providing Total Returns for 2020 only to highlight the correction impact.  Please feel free to list Bond OEFs that you consider appropriate for more conservative investors, for longer term investing.

Multisector Bond OEFs

1. ANGIX/ANGLX: M* Risk Low, SD .96, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns .60/.99/1.82

2. VCFAX/VCFIX: M* Risk Low, SD 1.56, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns -.10/.46/1.70

3. TSIAX/TSIIX: M* Risk Low, SD 1.42, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns .29/.60/1.29

NonTraditional Bond OEFs

1. SEMMX/SEMPX: M* Risk Low, SD .93, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns -.13/.34/1.65

2. PMZIX/PMZAX: M* Risk Low, SD 1.06, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns -.06/.53/1/22

3. MWCIX/MWCRX: M* Risk Low, SD 1.05, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns .04/.28/1.01

HY Muni Bond OEFs

1. AAHMX: M* Risk Low, SD 1.29, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns -.06/.60/1.55

2. PDSZX/PDSAX: M* Risk Low, SD 1.63, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns .21/1.11/2.38

Short Term Bond OEFs

1. DHEAX: M* Risk Low, SD .71, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns .20/.83/1.53

2. DBLSX: M* Risk Low, SD .65, 1wk/1m0/YTD Total Returns .10/.41/.85


We learned several lessons today

ANGLX -0.9%

TSIIX -0.92%

SEMMX -0.48%

PMZIX -0.46%

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Contributor ○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@FD1001 wrote:

1. DHEAX: M* Risk Low, SD .71, 1wk/1mo/YTD Total Returns .20/.83/1.53

2. DBLSX: M* Risk Low, SD .65, 1wk/1m0/YTD Total Returns .10/.41/.85


 


I do like these above, but I do not think they are very conservative. Look at FCONX, same with FSHBX, both fit the bill. I don't own it, but I think they are conservative bond funds. I know the yield is too low at this time, but it is a very conservative. Now a nice easy one to hold is VUSFX

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Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@Bobpa wrote:

@dtconroe What did we/you learn today?


It was one of the worst market days in our history, and bond oefs were challenged, but not near as much as equities.  Very conservative nontraditional bond oefs (PMZIX, SEMMX, MWCIX) were down, but less than .5%, but more risky bond oefs like JMSIX, PUCZX, JMUTX were hit harder with over 1% losses.  MUNIS held up pretty well with either a positive day or small losses.  Short term bond oefs had a lot of inconsistency, but overall held up fairly well with most having small losses.  I was not terribly surprised with what I saw, but hope we do not have more days like we had today.  

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Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

BAGIX lost a point and BCOIX lost a few points, while DODIX a few more points, therefore one might expect PIGIX to lose more, I did not check my smaller holdings of JMUIX and PUCZX, but I have not had much luck with them since the market has fallen.

I'm hanging on to short term simple bond funds until I can see what interest rates are doing.

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Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

@dtconroe  Regarding your most excellent post on Sunday, I would like to add my thanks for sharing your insights and observations.  I've been investing since the early 1980's, started when the DJIA was bouncing between the high 700's and low 800's, but I had never invested in an all-bond fund until about mid-2018.  I knew next to nothing about bond funds, and while I know I have a lot more to learn, your posts have been an education for me.  Of course, I've gleaned a lot of good information from various posters here, but I am always picking up tidbits from you.  Thank you very much.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

I think we learned SEMMX is not a cash sub. And in general bond OEFs are not cash subs. Convexity is playing out. 

I also learned how comforting cash positions are. My retirement is SS and me so I will never lose sight of how important cash is. 

I am still positive in my bond funds. Do I take Gundlach’s suggestion and go to cash? He also said thing will get worse. I hope to hear what everyone thinks about that. 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors


@Gary1952 wrote:

I think we learned SEMMX is not a cash sub. And in general bond OEFs are not cash subs. Convexity is playing out. 

I also learned how comforting cash positions are. My retirement is SS and me so I will never lose sight of how important cash is. 

I am still positive in my bond funds. Do I take Gundlach’s suggestion and go to cash? He also said thing will get worse. I hope to hear what everyone thinks about that. 


It depends on goals, how you invest and understanding of risk.  MM will pay around 1-1.2%(currently) while DHEAX will get you around 3%. That is a great risk/reward IMO....and in most cases it's never all or nothing.  While SEMMX lost 0.5, DHEIX lost only -0.1%.

Do I want to hold lots of cash long term? not me.

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Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

I would remind posters that this thread is to discuss "low risk", not "no risk", bond oefs, for investors who are not traders, and hope to hold funds for a longer period of time of at least a year.  There was no suggestion that these funds are "cash subs", or that when you have one the worst one day market days in our histories, low risk funds will have no losses.  In 2019, all we were getting is outstanding performance by bond oefs, and risk was on, but 2020 is just the opposite now experiencing a major correction and going toward a potential recession.  Panic selling in 2020 is becoming commonplace and each investor has to decide what kind of investor they want to be.

Here is what has happened to the M* Low Risk funds, that I mentioned in the OP, noting % Total Return.

Multisector Bond OEFS

1. VCFAX: 1 day -.29, 1 week -.21, YTD +1.41

2. ANGIX: 1 day -.90, 1 week -.40, YTD +.92

3. TSIAX: 1 day -.92, 1 week -.70, YTD +.33

NonTraditional Bond OEFs

1. MWCIX: 1 day -1.00, 1 week -1.03, YTD +.03

2. SEMMX: 1 day -.48, 1 week -.58, YTD +1.21

3. PMZIX: 1day -.46, 1 week -.49, YTD +.80

HY Muni Bond OEFs

1. AAHMX: 1 day -.10, 1week -.14, 1 week +.51

2. PDSZX: 1 day +.09, 1 week +.31, 1 week +2.49

Short Term Bond OEFs

1. DHEAX: 1 day -.10, 1 week +.10, YTD +1.43

2. DBLSX: 1 day -.20, 1 week -.10, YTD  +.65

Investors who want to stay invested, will have to answer the personal question of how much they are willing to lose on one of the worst market days in our history, what kind of bond oefs that meet their risk criteria, what is an acceptable peak to trough loss they can tolerate and stay invested, etc.  

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Valued Contributor

Re: Bond OEF Investing for More Conservative Investors

DT, very well said.  I find PDSZX as a good choice I didn't know about.  More ideas/options are what we need.

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