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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:


Good idea, FD.  I also sometimes change the subject when I'm losing a debate.  Insist that your opponent answer an irrelevant question. 

Just to remind you, the subject is the feasibility of trading your identification of ANBEX as "dominant" after the fact.  

As for comparing funds of multiple categories, you've compared bond OEFs to Wellesley more times than I've asked Scarlett Johansson for a date.  So what?

N.


Now, we can continue.  The discussion here is specifically about ANBEX vs Core plus.  It is also true that I compared Wellesley to bond OEFs but I also explained the merit of it such as

1) certain bond fund like PIMIX used to be, there is another option to get similar performance with lower SD 

2) I also posted many times about VWINX vs VWELX and why I like VWELX for retirees.  If you look LT VWELX made about 10-12% more with about 50% more SD.  I also like PRWCX LT vs SPY for similar reasons.

You never bothered (or just don't like to admit) to read the whole context of my thread.  I point out many funds with good ST and LT results plus risk attributes(SD, Sharpe...).  It depends on the subject and goals. These are subjects for discussion, more options and the rest is up to each one to do whatever they want. In the past, I always used some of the funds I post about.  Please show where I promised a guaranteed future return.  It's clear that my system worked for my goals pretty well.

Several posters, including you, think is all BS, others like it. I'm OK with that.  


FD,

I see.  Comparing fund categories makes sense when you do it, but not when I do it.  Got it.

You also don't read my posts very carefully.  If you did, you'd know that I think you're smart and that you come up with good ideas from time to time.  You uncover some good stuff.  You also helped me become aware of the investing opportunity in MS bond funds.

I specifically dispute one thing only: the ability for investing mortals to successfully use short-term performance (mom + vol) to predict future performance.  That's all.  ANBEX is an example.  Not a reason for you to contact Mossad to have me taught a lesson.  Besides, I used to date Ziva David. 

N.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@ignatz wrote:

There's never been a more common reason to dismiss anything than that it's contrary to what one believes to be true or important. It underlies nearly all discussions here.


No doubt.  One can never learn anything new that way, however. To not learn, to fail to see other points of view, is a waste of one's abilities.  You don't have to end up agreeing, but actual data shouldn't be ignored.  Imo, of course.  And, despite your assertion, I've found that most folk here will keep an open mind and actually at least LISTEN so long as the data is clear and the reasoning is logical - as long as one avoids obviously partisan topics!  :-)

I like FD personally, and I appreciate the time and energy required to generate the data he provides.  I take no position on investing on the basis of short-term data, nor on who is good at it.  I seldom outright argue with him.  My sole concern is that data found in charts be analyzed correctly.  I've been looking at that kind of thing for over 50 years now, and it's seldom as straightforward as some believe.  In THIS case, the analysis was misleading, and I sought to, and hope I did, correct that analysis for others here.  It has nothing to do with FD, or his way of doing things.  It was ALL about the data and chart.

Just repeating for the cheap seats, to get the 10% ($1k on a $10k investment) FD talked about, you HAD to invest fully ON 2/23 and then hold until the end of the chart.  Any delay from 2/23 cost you some of that 10%.  The key thing, though, is that if you FAILED to invest before 3/19, then you gained virtually nothing ($67 on a $10k investment).  So you had 30 days to get ANY improved return.  How many could see that pattern and get in within 30 days?  How many would get chased out by the first drop from 3/5 to 3/19 (prior to which you would have made about $500 on a $10k investment)? 

For those who may be wondering, you started the 3/19 climb up about $700 over the reference fund.  From THERE, both funds did approximately the same, but, starting ahead, AMBEX GAINS more money (compounding on the lead).  THAT'S where the confusion is coming in; AMBEX didn't do BETTER than the reference after 3/19; it merely compounded on the LEAD it had (plus that $67 actual advantage).


Rac, I'm really sorry if you can't look at a simple chart and see the difference.  It's below

anbex-4.PNG


No need to be nasty...

Ok...  I finally reproduced the chart I was looking at; so much time had passed that I wasn't sure what it had been.  I apologize for the date error I made, but the chart was from 3/21, not 3/19 and ran to 7/06 when I made the first post.  So I was off by two days.  Not sure why I didn't catch that, but the principle is unchanged.  The period of import was therefore from 2/23 to 3/21; which, btw, also isn't 30 days - It's 28.  So now that I looked at YOUR point and acknowledged it, will you do the same for mine?  Please adjust your chart to begin at 3/21, look at it, and see if what I'm telling you is correct or not.  Fair?


Absolutely fair, but based on what you said there were several nasty posts by other posters.  The chart below according to your dates 3/21 to 7/6 still shows that ANBEX is close to 0.5% ahead.

anbex.PNG


Yes, $48 out of a $10k initial investment.  Is that significant or not?  If we look between 3/19/2016 and 3/21/2020, we find the reference ahead by...wait for it... $48 out of a $10k initial investment.  So outside of that little squiggle area we have... nothing.  THAT'S what I've been trying to make clear all along.  You HAD to move inside that small time frame to really benefit.  Now this last 0.5% MAY be the start of something - or not; hard to say.  ANBEX clearly better?  Not so sure we can SAY that based on the chart.  Again, fair?


For your initial claim 3/19 to 7/6 ANBEX was better by 2.4%, which is significant.  From 3/21 only 0.48 not so much.  One month 0.4% and that's not bad.  

But, please look at the whole context. March 2020 was a black swan month, many funds, including bond funds, were going down.  Many funds in the bond core plus were down 9-10% while ANBEX was down only 5% and positive for the year.  The Fed + Gov had a huge support and markets rebounded.  We know it now in hindsight.  

For the record, I bought ANBEX, it was an easy buy for wild markets, I wanted to be fully invested, ANBEX was one of several funds I selected, then the rebound was clear, I switched.  My decisions are made based on markets and many other things. That's my style, no surprises. 

and of course, if you read my bond thread, we have discussed many other funds. ANBEX was only one option. The first time I mentioned ANBEX I posted the following (below). I offer options, I show you numbers. After that, you must do your own due diligence according to your style and goals.

==================

I looked at the above and I have more options.  

FUNDYTDMarch3 YRSDpeak to troughYield
FSTGX5.22.13.92.6-1.61.7
VFIIX3.41.53.72.2-2.22.6
ANBEX9.42.655.83.2-5.81.2
SCCYX8.52.75.53.4-51.8
CBPSX6.31.74.33.5-61.5
CPTNX5.81.84.73.2-3.82.3
 
 
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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@norbertc wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:


Good idea, FD.  I also sometimes change the subject when I'm losing a debate.  Insist that your opponent answer an irrelevant question. 

Just to remind you, the subject is the feasibility of trading your identification of ANBEX as "dominant" after the fact.  

As for comparing funds of multiple categories, you've compared bond OEFs to Wellesley more times than I've asked Scarlett Johansson for a date.  So what?

N.


Now, we can continue.  The discussion here is specifically about ANBEX vs Core plus.  It is also true that I compared Wellesley to bond OEFs but I also explained the merit of it such as

1) certain bond fund like PIMIX used to be, there is another option to get similar performance with lower SD 

2) I also posted many times about VWINX vs VWELX and why I like VWELX for retirees.  If you look LT VWELX made about 10-12% more with about 50% more SD.  I also like PRWCX LT vs SPY for similar reasons.

You never bothered (or just don't like to admit) to read the whole context of my thread.  I point out many funds with good ST and LT results plus risk attributes(SD, Sharpe...).  It depends on the subject and goals. These are subjects for discussion, more options and the rest is up to each one to do whatever they want. In the past, I always used some of the funds I post about.  Please show where I promised a guaranteed future return.  It's clear that my system worked for my goals pretty well.

Several posters, including you, think is all BS, others like it. I'm OK with that.  


FD,

I see.  Comparing fund categories makes sense when you do it, but not when I do it.  Got it.

You also don't read my posts very carefully.  If you did, you'd know that I think you're smart and that you come up with good ideas from time to time.  You uncover some good stuff.  You also helped me become aware of the investing opportunity in MS bond funds.

I specifically dispute one thing only: the ability for investing mortals to successfully use short-term performance (mom + vol) to predict future performance.  That's all.  ANBEX is an example.  Not a reason for you to contact Mossad to have me taught a lesson.  Besides, I used to date Ziva David. 

N.


If that's correct how could my portfolio achieve the performance and SD?

It's not all momentum, it's also paying attention to other risk attributes (SD, Sharpe, Max Draw, Sortino).  I'm not looking for the highest performance.  I will switch to another bond category. In certain and unique times I will be in cash.  I trade very ST stocks/ETF/GLD/CEFs and whatever else I see right. Sometimes like the scary times of the black swan I wanted to be fully invested so ANBEX looked like a good choice at that time. There is never a guarantee for future returns, no problem, I switch :-) if sometimes I get a market return and sometimes I get a better return and sometimes I hit a home run (with 50+% in it), it pays very nicely.  

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

Again, only looking at the chart, not the eventual use of it. 

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

It isn't all about FD. I called him out when he suddenly propped up ANBEX he has been boasting about on an alternate ST bond trading forum [that he was requested to stay away by the OP of that thread]. I called him out on this thread [his own] when he sort of implied that Barron's piece supported HIS ANBEX recommendation, it didn't.

I try to avoid posting on FD and DT threads unless something factual has to be posted.

YBB
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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@yogibearbull wrote:

It isn't all about FD. I called him out when he suddenly propped up ANBEX he has been boasting about on an alternate ST bond trading forum [that he was requested to stay away by the OP of that thread]. I called him out on this thread [his own] when he sort of implied that Barron's piece supported HIS ANBEX recommendation, it didn't.

I try to avoid posting on FD and DT threads unless something factual has to be posted.


You have been calling on many funds that do not belong to VG, Fidelity, Pimco and known shops.  You were wrong about OPTAX for years.  It turned out to be an excellent fund and it did much better than the category during the meltdown. So again, not everybody uses your style or have your goals. 

For me, funds like NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX,IOFIX made a lot of money and I used them instead of stocks too.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

It isn't all about FD. I called him out when he suddenly propped up ANBEX he has been boasting about on an alternate ST bond trading forum [that he was requested to stay away by the OP of that thread]. I called him out on this thread [his own] when he sort of implied that Barron's piece supported HIS ANBEX recommendation, it didn't.

I try to avoid posting on FD and DT threads unless something factual has to be posted.


You have been calling on many funds that do not belong to VG, Fidelity, Pimco and known shops.  You were wrong about OPTAX for years.  It turned out to be an excellent fund and it did much better than the category during the meltdown. So again, not everybody uses your style or have your goals. 

For me, funds like NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX,IOFIX made a lot of money and I used them instead of stocks too.


That is your response about your misrepresentations about ANBEX?

YBB
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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:


Good idea, FD.  I also sometimes change the subject when I'm losing a debate.  Insist that your opponent answer an irrelevant question. 

Just to remind you, the subject is the feasibility of trading your identification of ANBEX as "dominant" after the fact.  

As for comparing funds of multiple categories, you've compared bond OEFs to Wellesley more times than I've asked Scarlett Johansson for a date.  So what?

N.


Now, we can continue.  The discussion here is specifically about ANBEX vs Core plus.  It is also true that I compared Wellesley to bond OEFs but I also explained the merit of it such as

1) certain bond fund like PIMIX used to be, there is another option to get similar performance with lower SD 

2) I also posted many times about VWINX vs VWELX and why I like VWELX for retirees.  If you look LT VWELX made about 10-12% more with about 50% more SD.  I also like PRWCX LT vs SPY for similar reasons.

You never bothered (or just don't like to admit) to read the whole context of my thread.  I point out many funds with good ST and LT results plus risk attributes(SD, Sharpe...).  It depends on the subject and goals. These are subjects for discussion, more options and the rest is up to each one to do whatever they want. In the past, I always used some of the funds I post about.  Please show where I promised a guaranteed future return.  It's clear that my system worked for my goals pretty well.

Several posters, including you, think is all BS, others like it. I'm OK with that.  


FD,

I see.  Comparing fund categories makes sense when you do it, but not when I do it.  Got it.

You also don't read my posts very carefully.  If you did, you'd know that I think you're smart and that you come up with good ideas from time to time.  You uncover some good stuff.  You also helped me become aware of the investing opportunity in MS bond funds.

I specifically dispute one thing only: the ability for investing mortals to successfully use short-term performance (mom + vol) to predict future performance.  That's all.  ANBEX is an example.  Not a reason for you to contact Mossad to have me taught a lesson.  Besides, I used to date Ziva David. 

N.


If that's correct how could my portfolio achieve the performance and SD?

It's not all momentum, it's also paying attention to other risk attributes (SD, Sharpe, Max Draw, Sortino).  I'm not looking for the highest performance.  I will switch to another bond category. In certain and unique times I will be in cash.  I trade very ST stocks/ETF/GLD/CEFs and whatever else I see right. Sometimes like the scary times of the black swan I wanted to be fully invested so ANBEX looked like a good choice at that time. There is never a guarantee for future returns, no problem, I switch :-) if sometimes I get a market return and sometimes I get a better return and sometimes I hit a home run (with 50+% in it), it pays very nicely.  


What a guy!

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

FD ... some advice ... stopping digging your own hole. Your shtick got exposed on this post. Or at least go back to a thread where it less likely others will pull back the curtain.

But as far was whether your portfolio meets your performance or SD goals <your rhetorical question>? How would anyone know? Perhaps you don't, or perhaps your goals are minuscule. Maybe a better question is why dwell or post for that matter on your personal performance? It's an anonymous forum.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

@VA-Tech 

Yes, that's what puzzles me.  Why would a successful, happy retiree spend hours on various Internet forums trying to persuade a jackass such as myself that he's a trading genius with x% rate of return for some arbitrary period of time?  Does he think it matters?  It's the kind of thing a child would do.

FD should read Dale Carnegie if he cares what other people think.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

The starting point in all Dale Carnegie courses is "Start In A Nice Way". Hee haw.


@norbertc wrote:

@VA-Tech 

Yes, that's what puzzles me.  Why would a successful, happy retiree spend hours on various Internet forums trying to persuade a jackass such as myself that he's a trading genius with x% rate of return for some arbitrary period of time?  Does he think it matters?  It's the kind of thing a child would do.

FD should read Dale Carnegie if he cares what other people think.


 

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@norbertc wrote:

@VA-Tech 

Yes, that's what puzzles me.  Why would a successful, happy retiree spend hours on various Internet forums trying to persuade a jackass such as myself that he's a trading genius with x% rate of return for some arbitrary period of time?  Does he think it matters?  It's the kind of thing a child would do.

FD should read Dale Carnegie if he cares what other people think.


I'm still happy but just to set the record, you were the one that started the food fight and still continues.  On one hand, you said you believed my record but on the other hand, you said it can't be done...mmm...so, which is it?

I know at least 3 investors(all used to post on M*) that use momentum very well, I still communicate with one of them for years and he is an extremely good momo trader mainly with stock OEF/ETF. He used ST trades and longer ones and all based on market conditions. It can be done.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

This is not a productive discussion. The thread is locked. 

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