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American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.

==================

From the Barron link above

american.PNG

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.


Just to complete the analysis though, FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.  PRIOR to that, the benchmark had been leading for almost four YEARS, and POST that, it was basically a dead heat.  I realize this is coming from the Baron's article, but I'm not sure a two-week difference really means anything.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.


Just to complete the analysis though, FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.  PRIOR to that, the benchmark had been leading for almost four YEARS, and POST that, it was basically a dead heat.  I realize this is coming from the Baron's article, but I'm not sure a two-week difference really means anything.


Barron's article didn't mention ANBEX but mentioned several other AF bond funds [6 of 18]. It focused on how AF has invested significantly into its bond operations.

YBB
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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.


Just to complete the analysis though, FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.  PRIOR to that, the benchmark had been leading for almost four YEARS, and POST that, it was basically a dead heat.  I realize this is coming from the Baron's article, but I'm not sure a two-week difference really means anything.


Let's show that it's more than 2 weeks.  

On 2/25/2020 ANBEX had the same performance as BND.  Since that day ANBEX made 11.8 % while BND made only 3.3%. 

anbeX-2.PNG

Let's look deeper, see 3 periods 

1) From 2/25 to 3/8 ANBEX made 5% while BND 2.6%

2) From 3/8 to 3/19 ANBEX lost about 5% while BND lost 6.4%

3) From 3/19 to last Thursday ANBEX made 11.3% while BND 6.8%

Bottom line: ANBEX performance is better for several months.

 

anbex.PNG

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

Sorry, just assumed the article and the fund you were focused on went together. 

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.


Just to complete the analysis though, FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.  PRIOR to that, the benchmark had been leading for almost four YEARS, and POST that, it was basically a dead heat.  I realize this is coming from the Baron's article, but I'm not sure a two-week difference really means anything.


Let's show that it's more than 2 weeks.  

On 2/25/2020 ANBEX had the same performance as BND.  Since that day ANBEX made 11.8 % while BND made only 3.3%. 

anbeX-2.PNG

Let's look deeper, see 3 periods 

1) From 2/25 to 3/8 ANBEX made 5% while BND 2.6%

2) From 3/8 to 3/19 ANBEX lost about 5% while BND lost 6.4%

3) From 3/19 to last Thursday ANBEX made 11.3% while BND 6.8%

Bottom line: ANBEX performance is better for several months.

 

anbex.PNG


Or... How about instead of switching funds, we just stay with the chart YOU posted instead?  You know, the one that my comments were in reference to?  Why bring in BND; just to be ‘right’?  How is that equivalent to “intermediate core-plus”?  For the record, had you posted the BND/AMBEX chart to BEGIN with, I’d have agreed with you. 

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.


Just to complete the analysis though, FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.  PRIOR to that, the benchmark had been leading for almost four YEARS, and POST that, it was basically a dead heat.  I realize this is coming from the Baron's article, but I'm not sure a two-week difference really means anything.


Let's show that it's more than 2 weeks.  

On 2/25/2020 ANBEX had the same performance as BND.  Since that day ANBEX made 11.8 % while BND made only 3.3%. 

anbeX-2.PNG

Let's look deeper, see 3 periods 

1) From 2/25 to 3/8 ANBEX made 5% while BND 2.6%

2) From 3/8 to 3/19 ANBEX lost about 5% while BND lost 6.4%

3) From 3/19 to last Thursday ANBEX made 11.3% while BND 6.8%

Bottom line: ANBEX performance is better for several months.

 

anbex.PNG


Or... How about instead of switching funds, we just stay with the chart YOU posted instead?  You know, the one that my comments were in reference to?  Why bring in BND; just to be ‘right’?  How is that equivalent to “intermediate core-plus”?  For the record, had you posted the BND/AMBEX chart to BEGIN with, I’d have agreed with you. 


From the inception of ANBEX to 2/25/2020 it was a tie with BND.  Since 2/25 ANBEX is way ahead which is several months.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.


Just to complete the analysis though, FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.  PRIOR to that, the benchmark had been leading for almost four YEARS, and POST that, it was basically a dead heat.  I realize this is coming from the Baron's article, but I'm not sure a two-week difference really means anything.


Let's show that it's more than 2 weeks.  

On 2/25/2020 ANBEX had the same performance as BND.  Since that day ANBEX made 11.8 % while BND made only 3.3%. 

anbeX-2.PNG

Let's look deeper, see 3 periods 

1) From 2/25 to 3/8 ANBEX made 5% while BND 2.6%

2) From 3/8 to 3/19 ANBEX lost about 5% while BND lost 6.4%

3) From 3/19 to last Thursday ANBEX made 11.3% while BND 6.8%

Bottom line: ANBEX performance is better for several months.

 

anbex.PNG


Or... How about instead of switching funds, we just stay with the chart YOU posted instead?  You know, the one that my comments were in reference to?  Why bring in BND; just to be ‘right’?  How is that equivalent to “intermediate core-plus”?  For the record, had you posted the BND/AMBEX chart to BEGIN with, I’d have agreed with you. 


From the inception of ANBEX to 2/25/2020 it was a tie with BND.  Since 2/25 ANBEX is way ahead which is several months.


Which relates to my last post how?  BND was not a part of YOUR originally posted chart.  What is the rationale for dragging that into the discussion?  Your original chart had a limitation.  I pointed it out.  Bringing up a whole different chart has no bearing on the issue.  Was BND the benchmark for “intermediate core-plus bond” in your chart?  If not, what bearing has it on what I wrote?

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance



Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance

YTD CAGR BND = 6.6%. For ANBEX = 14.9%. 

Why did ANBEX pop so well? The portfolio looks like BND. More or less. The only REAL differences I can see is the use of LEVERAGE and a good (lucky?) nimble manager. GSD for both funds is about the same.

For me when a bond fund uses leverage and or non-investment grade bonds I no longer classify it as FI. But as "equity".

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@galeno wrote:

YTD CAGR BND = 6.6%. For ANBEX = 14.9%. 

Why did ANBEX pop so well? The portfolio looks like BND. More or less. The only REAL differences I can see is the use of LEVERAGE and a good (lucky?) nimble manager. GSD for both funds is about the same.

For me when a bond fund uses leverage and or non-investment grade bonds I no longer classify it as FI. But as "equity".


I don't see any leveraged and I'm sure ANBEX portfolio is different than BND.  ANBEX duration is 8.6 while BND is 6.2. Below is ANBEX(link).  ANBEX turnover > 400 but BND < 50.  

anbex.PNG

 

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@galeno wrote:

YTD CAGR BND = 6.6%. For ANBEX = 14.9%. 

For me when a bond fund uses leverage and or non-investment grade bonds I no longer classify it as FI. But as "equity".


 

Checking ANBEX's portfolio on M* indicates that 90.4% of its portfolio is in investment grade bonds, i.e., bonds rated AAA - BBB. And there is nothing that indicates the use of leverage.

Where do you get your information, @galeno?

Using your definition, most bond funds would probably have to be reclassified as "equity".

Fred

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.


Reading this makes my skin crawl. This is exactly the sort of analysis I never want to have to think about. Trying to extract reality from short term noise.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@chang wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.


Reading this makes my skin crawl. This is exactly the sort of analysis I never want to have to think about. Trying to extract reality from short term noise.


Understand.  I was originally just eyeballing it quickly; so it wasn't a big thing.  FD preferred getting down into the weeds, so I reluctantly followed!  ;-)   And anyway, you're going to see a lot worse in your classes soon!  8^b

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@chang wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.


Reading this makes my skin crawl. This is exactly the sort of analysis I never want to have to think about. Trying to extract reality from short term noise.


I didn't want to go thru this but the conclusion is pretty simple and can be seen on a chart very quickly.  Since 2/24 ANBEX made 10+% more than M* core plus.  If you think that this is a noise I'm OK with that  :-)

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@chang wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.


Reading this makes my skin crawl. This is exactly the sort of analysis I never want to have to think about. Trying to extract reality from short term noise.


But isn't that the very essence of racing Yugos? You (figuratively, not you in particular Chang) look back at short-term performance and make commentary as to why that short-term performance occurred. The trickier part is to convince others that the move was foreseeable, actionable, warranted an investment, AND that you made money on the trade. But of course, now you are on to another "foreseeable" event, to be revealed at a later date.

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@chang wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.


Reading this makes my skin crawl. This is exactly the sort of analysis I never want to have to think about. Trying to extract reality from short term noise.


I didn't want to go thru this but the conclusion is pretty simple and can be seen on a chart very quickly.  Since 2/24 ANBEX made 10+% more than M* core plus.  If you think that this is a noise I'm OK with that  :-)


I didn't go through this for YOU, FD.  I understand that you see a difference in money that comes from compounding, etc IN ADDITION to the actual details of WHY it's there.  THIS is to explain the WHY behind it all.  Chang is getting what I'm saying here; it isn't the 10%, AFTER THE FACT, that matters so much as the difficulty in identifying the OPPORTUNITY which was only present if you identified it IMMEDIATELY and invested fully IMMEDIATELY.  WHO'S going to DO that?  Take away that 30-day period, and there is NO disparity in the funds!  Getting in, even three months ago, would have availed you NOTHING.  Getting in NOW?  Maybe it COSTS you a little; who knows?  Look at the numbers I gave you.  You like data; there it is; take the time to really look at it and try to understand what I'm attempting to get across to you.  Don't just dismiss it because it's contrary to what you believe to be true or important.  30 DAYS, FD, that's all the time that there was that would earn you that 10% you're talking about.  Even YOU would have trouble moving that quickly and decisively!  If you don't care about getting that deeply into the weeds, I understand, but OTHERS may find the data helpful. 

Folks, if you couldn't/didn't identify and move on the data within a few days of seeing it, there's nothing on that chart which helps you AT ALL.  I hope you can SEE that!

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@chang wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:


Racq: FD, ANBEX's outperformance stems almost completely from a two-week period March 5-19 of this year, where it lost less than the intermediate core-plus benchmark.

OK, I see your point now, you only mentioned the inter core plus but what I said before is still valid (link).  From 2/25 to the end of last week which is clearly more than 2 weeks, ANBEX was better.  See the arrows below 1+2+3.

Arrow 1 shows 2/25 to 3/5...ANBEX 6.2%...Core plus 1.4%

Arrow 2 shows 3/6 to 3/19...ANBEX -5.3%...Core plus -8.3%

Arrow 3 shows 3/20 to 7/3...ANBEX 12%...Core plus 10%  (change the end date to 7/3 to get core plus)

 

anbeX-2.PNG


Ok; good; now we can talk...

In your (and my) region 3, if you move your starting point over to 3/24, each fund starts at $10k.  On July 5, AMBEX is up by a whopping $67 out of roughly $11k.  That's noise.

My region 1 would be from the chart beginning to that little peak you're climbing and calling 1.  In that 3.75 years, AMBEX is down about $200 out of roughly $11k.  THAT'S noise (and cancels out region 3).

Everything happens in the swiggle area.  If we count that entire area, as you are, it encompasses a period from 2/23 to 3/19 or about one month.  So fine, we'll go with that.  In that time, AMBEX gains $57 (out of $10k) while the reference loses roughly $700 out of its $10k.  Clear outperformance by AMBEX, but it's only a month!

Over the entire chart, there is a difference of $1k between the two out of about $13k.   There isn't enough there to give a decisive edge to one over the other.  That short a time period, accounting for ALL the difference over 4 years, boils down to MAYBE a short-term trade (one month - IF you can see it developing at all).  I'm not seeing a clear advantage between the funds; just something strange that happened over a short time period which may never be repeated.  My only objection here is that you seem to be inferring a long-term advantage that the data doesn't support as strongly as you believe.


Reading this makes my skin crawl. This is exactly the sort of analysis I never want to have to think about. Trying to extract reality from short term noise.


I didn't want to go thru this but the conclusion is pretty simple and can be seen on a chart very quickly.  Since 2/24 ANBEX made 10+% more than M* core plus.  If you think that this is a noise I'm OK with that  :-)


I didn't go through this for YOU, FD.  I understand that you see a difference in money that comes from compounding, etc IN ADDITION to the actual details of WHY it's there.  THIS is to explain the WHY behind it all.  Chang is getting what I'm saying here; it isn't the 10%, AFTER THE FACT, that matters so much as the difficulty in identifying the OPPORTUNITY which was only present if you identified it IMMEDIATELY and invested fully IMMEDIATELY.  WHO'S going to DO that?  Take away that 30-day period, and there is NO disparity in the funds!  Getting in, even three months ago, would have availed you NOTHING.  Getting in NOW?  Maybe it COSTS you a little; who knows?  Look at the numbers I gave you.  You like data; there it is; take the time to really look at it and try to understand what I'm attempting to get across to you.  Don't just dismiss it because it's contrary to what you believe to be true or important.  30 DAYS, FD, that's all the time that there was that would earn you that 10% you're talking about.  Even YOU would have trouble moving that quickly and decisively!  If you don't care about getting that deeply into the weeds, I understand, but OTHERS may find the data helpful. 

Folks, if you couldn't/didn't identify and move on the data within a few days of seeing it, there's nothing on that chart which helps you AT ALL.  I hope you can SEE that!


Racq, with all due respect, I already showed the extra performance is more than one month and why I clearly posted 3 periods with their performance. 

Are you saying that investing based on short term uptrend chart doesn't work?

Let's agree to disagree.  

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Re: American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance


@FD1001 wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

I didn't go through this for YOU, FD.  I understand that you see a difference in money that comes from compounding, etc IN ADDITION to the actual details of WHY it's there.  THIS is to explain the WHY behind it all.  Chang is getting what I'm saying here; it isn't the 10%, AFTER THE FACT, that matters so much as the difficulty in identifying the OPPORTUNITY which was only present if you identified it IMMEDIATELY and invested fully IMMEDIATELY.  WHO'S going to DO that?  Take away that 30-day period, and there is NO disparity in the funds!  Getting in, even three months ago, would have availed you NOTHING.  Getting in NOW?  Maybe it COSTS you a little; who knows?  Look at the numbers I gave you.  You like data; there it is; take the time to really look at it and try to understand what I'm attempting to get across to you.  Don't just dismiss it because it's contrary to what you believe to be true or important.  30 DAYS, FD, that's all the time that there was that would earn you that 10% you're talking about.  Even YOU would have trouble moving that quickly and decisively!  If you don't care about getting that deeply into the weeds, I understand, but OTHERS may find the data helpful. 

Folks, if you couldn't/didn't identify and move on the data within a few days of seeing it, there's nothing on that chart which helps you AT ALL.  I hope you can SEE that!


Racq, with all due respect, I already showed the extra performance is more than one month and why I clearly posted 3 periods with their performance. 

Are you saying that investing based on short term uptrend chart doesn't work?

Let's agree to disagree.  

That’s fine, FD, but if you refuse to look at my data or even attempt to understand it, then any attempt at discussion is pointless anyway, and the fact that I CLEARLY proved that the ENTIRE ‘difference’ you see was due to something that happened over a TOTAL of 30 days is falling on deaf ears.  I just hope that others will take the time to look at it; it’s important to understand.  There ARE charts which indicate an advantage of one fund over another, but THIS one doesn’t. 

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