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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

@RainGater wrote:

Bank loans are screaming today. SPFLX up .04 or 0.41%. Let's see what EIFAX does today.

Bonds are rocking in general as 10 yr is sinking and good for the bond land!


I have a hard time believing in that since I didn't see it during trading hours.  SPFLX is not a typical BL.  See a (chart)

Rates are going down and why I don't want to hold BL.  EIFAX,FFRHX made nothing today.


I pointed out 2 weeks ago why I don't want to be in BL and regardless of my other bond funds.  See (chart).

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Rates are down sharply so it's not a surprise that higher-rated bond funds are doing pretty well...but..what about the rest

HY Munis are not working since last week and why I'm still waiting.

PTIAX continues to shine.

IOFIX is doing best within securitized.  SEMMX is great for SD < 1.

JMSIX is coming from behind, I usually don't ask for advice but this time I asked my FI specialist and he recommended JMSIX because they increased their higher rated bonds and lengthen their duration and why it's up nicely over 1% since last week ER=0.40 is low and no fees at Schwab.

JMUTX is behind the leaders.  PUCZX is watching the above from behind and PIMIX fell off the tracks.  

HY-as expected are down but Bank loans continue their downtrend too.

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Contributor ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

This is silly exercise, evaluating short term performance of bond funds that are managed based on market forecasts 6 mo+.  If only comparable time spent on asset allocation, the equity selection side of the ledger where the future portfolio growth will be, and portfolio beta.  If the one furlong positions for a distance race is your raison d'etre, check out PTTNX.  I think your funds are looking up its rear at the one furlong call.  

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Explorer ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

   if this isn't your cup of tea, why bother checking out the thread, much less posting to it?  you know who FD and how he works.  nothing to see here for you?  move along.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

FD, I noticed the early data on High Yld muni and JMUTX also. Not enough data to move yet. BCOIX and VBILX are on my standby list

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@PaulR888 wrote:

This is silly exercise, evaluating short term performance of bond funds that are managed based on market forecasts 6 mo+.  If only comparable time spent on asset allocation, the equity selection side of the ledger where the future portfolio growth will be, and portfolio beta.  If the one furlong positions for a distance race is your raison d'etre, check out PTTNX.  I think your funds are looking up its rear at the one furlong call.  


Ladies and Gents, Mr Paul is in my house.

So let's look at PTTNX...mmm...of course, this fund did well, after all its in higher rated bonds which have higher correlation to rates.  If you knew it 3 months ago you should be invested in TLT or EDV.

This type of funds is pretty easy, they are basically similar to BND or you can diversify and own VBILX which is 50/50 Corp/US bonds.  This is one year (chart) that shows that VBILX is better than PTTNX and is also better for 3-5 years.

But, this thread is about more complex questions: finding funds with better risk/reward + higher yield + making more without extra volatility + managers that can navigate better in all markets + maybe make changes at critical junctures you are welcome to do that....OR just pass on it  ;-)

There is a reason Paul is not participating too much in these discussions of how to find best funds because he own many of them...Billionaire investor Warren Buffett famously stated that "diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."

So Paul, if you want to add to the discussion at hand please do but stay on topic  :-)  

BTW, if you need help with Core/Core Plus funds I can do it for you  :-)

 

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@fffloyddd wrote:

if this isn't your cup of tea, why bother checking out the thread, much less posting to it?  you know who FD [is] and how he works. nothing to see here for you?  move along.


Well said, @fffloyddd.

Never understood why the M* Investing Forum generates so much personal animosity from certain posters. Don't see that kind of immature behavior on the Fidelity or the MFO forums. This kind of behavior is very tiresome, indeed.

If FD is not your cup of tea and you have nothing constructive to contribute, do us all a favor and "move along", please.

Fred

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Last week was a good test for your bond funds.

Multi-SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,JMUTX,JMSIX.  PTIAX(1.1%) continues its momentum which tells me they own higher rates bonds than the rest.  JMSIX(0.5%) had a nice week too.  IOFIX (0.40) continues to be the best-securitized YTD.

"Cash sub"-  DHEAX (0.2%) proved why high IG bonds is important.  SEMMX surprisingly lost -0.1.

Bank loans - lost too much and the category is at -2.1% for YTD and similar to HY performance which has a much higher duration.

HY Muni-all the ones I follow lost but  GHYAX -1%(bigger loss)...OPTAX only -0.3 and even ST duration NVHAX -0.5%.

For core plus: PINCX 1.8%...BCOIX 1.5%....DODIX only 0.8%...UBISX 1.15%..PTTRX 1.6%


But we also learned last week that funds with low SD for 3 years didn't perform that well exactly when you needed them...IISIX -0.2%...JMUTX -0.2%...PIMIX -0.3%...SSTHX -0.3% While much "riskier" IOFIX with SD = 2.7 performed extremely well YTD=3.2% and one week=0.4%

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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

FD1001 and YBB,

Thank you for your posts this week on Bond Funds. I have to sell some of my holdings in Muni funds (Taxable accounts) since they have been losing money for a week or so. In IRA funds, I have IOFIX which I will keep. I have sold PUCZX. will sell JMUTX and JGIAX. will study the better fund suggestions you have and switch part of my funds to them.  I have held the non-performing funds for 2 months. 

I am reduced my holdings in PIMIX. PIMIX has lost 1% in the last month. Still keeping it. 

I have also bought TLT in the last few days. Since it is an ETF, I can buy or sell with less hassle.

I have about 6 bond funds at a time in the IRA and 4 municipal bond funds. I am OK will less returns and some losses.

Because of market down turn, I have reduced my equity. Not able to take the losses. Now I have 20% equity 50% Bonds and 30% cash.

SRT 

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Participant ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

This past week, I bought BAGIX, TGLMX, VBILX, and VCOBX, all more conservative OEFs than those I sold the week before and are available through VBS. Kept EIXIX and DHEIX.

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Lots of stuff today to cover

Multi-  PTIAX at 0% was fantastic.  VCFAX at -0.3% and IOFIX at -0.4 was not bad when SEMMX was down -0.46.  JMUTX+JMSIX -1.3% was another proof why securitized is the best.  Second-tier PUCZX at -2.9% and PIMIX lost -1.7%.  PDIIX lost -2.4%.  The Pimco guys are not doing well at all.

HY Muni lost about -0.5 to -0.7 but OPTAX just at -0.37

Bank loans - fell sharply.  EIFAX -3.1 and SPFLX -2.35

HY lost even more at least at -3% to -4%

"Cash sub" - DHEAX confirmed itself as a great choice for performance and stability with just -0.1

Cose plus - PINCX -0.13...BCOIX -0.4....DODIX -1%(as expected)...USIBX -0.45...BND -0.2...FIJEX -0.95

==========

Rates were down dramatically but higher rated bonds didn't go up.  I see it as a problem.  The markets are crazy, volatile and without a direction. I did nicely YTD and will start buying when markets tell me what to do.

I sold my 3 funds (huge % in PINCX, smaller % in BCOIX and a small % in IOFIX...I bought PINCX+BCOIX earlier last week)  and now at 99% cash.  I lost today -0.22% which was a surprise because I thought I will make money. 

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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I am still 100% cash . With today’s action I don’t trust anything . Even gold was down and then turned positive. Quality mortgages and Treasury were the only thing holding up today . Suspect my next move is equities not Bond OEF of any kind except Securitized . BDKNX which I have brought up a few times did the best  of the bunch losing 0.19 today . I have had my eye on this fund for some time . Also perpetually sits on the top of the heap across all asset classes of funds for 3 year sharp ratio and Sortino. 

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Yesterday was ugly, pretty simple.  Monday was a telling day.  Rates were down sharply and bond funds should be up but even BND (simple higher rated index) was down. 

Yesterday Even PTIAX lost 1%.  EIXIX was up 0.3.

I like to see how bonds (except treasuries) get priced when everybody sells at the same time.

 

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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

This post starts on topic but goes a bit off. Looking across the carnage one fund really stood out for me. I say this in context of vanguard BND going down  5.44 percent. Another Vanguard fund Lifestrategy  Income which is 20 stock and 80 bonds was down 2.68 percent. I have  been spending time looking at various top ranking risk return allocation funds ( based on 3 year sharp using fidelity screener) tilted towards equities to ride the eventual market recovery. Vlaix and jbalx are at the top of the list. I was surprised to see vasix which  is bond tilted but also at the top of the list and beats Wellesley on 3 year Sharp. I see it’s magic today. 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Sortatino2 wrote:

This post starts on topic but goes a bit off. Looking across the carnage one fund really stood out for me. I say this in context of vanguard BND going down  5.44 percent. Another Vanguard fund Lifestrategy  Income which is 20 stock and 80 bonds was down 2.68 percent. I have  been spending time looking at various top ranking risk return allocation funds ( based on 3 year sharp using fidelity screener) tilted towards equities to ride the eventual market recovery. Vlaix and jbalx are at the top of the list. I was surprised to see vasix which  is bond tilted but also at the top of the list and beats Wellesley on 3 year Sharp. I see it’s magic today. 


Sharpe is a pretty good indicator BUT you got to dig deeper.  

VASIX looks great here because we are in a bear market. A 20/80 index fund isn't the one I would use for recovery and/or investing LT unless it's part of your total AA.  On another thread someone mentioned that VWINX worked pretty well YTD, I posted that VASIX worked better and BND worked even better than that...of course, they did!!...the more bonds they have the better they did in a bear market.  YTD (chart).   But, why would I use VASIX at all when I can use Multi sector bond funds with better risk/reward (performance,SD,Sharpe,Sortino)

For recovery, you look for momentum, not for slow movers. At the minimum, you want to use moderate allocations and you correctly mentioned Vlaix and jbalx.

Another interesting fund is CTFAX.  In the last 3 years it has a better Sharpe (link) than VLAIX,VASIX,VWINX but VLAIX performance is much better (almost double).

But, this thread is about bond funds and there are lots of opportunities in this category.  Many forget that bonds are contracts and why they usually rebound faster.  HY Munis, Munis, HY and others are down 5-10%, they will turn around too.

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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Totally agree. No practical use for vasix when top bond oef have better return with better risk metrics . Stock tilted balanced funds I am interested in for recovery. 

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I continue to believe in high % in cash.  You can read my latest thread(link).

Since we are in a bear market then bear market rules apply.  Raise cash, use best ideas, wait for charts/trends/prices to tell you your next buy, be patient you are no missing anything. If you see a high probability trade, take it, ST guerilla war applies.

Even if you are not a trader, you can use buckets and average up because it's better than DCA.

Since I'm looking for lower volatility in general but also for opportunities I will also watch HY and preferred but I have a feeling that HY munis will have a good momo, after all, they were hit too hard. 

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

OMG is how I describe this market. 

IOFIX - after a free fall in the last several days is still ranks at 29 YTD.  We all knew that securitized will have its moment but the other funds are falling apart too....YTD...IOFIX -6.8...JMUTX -8.9%...only PTIAX at -1.85.  most of the carnage happened for one week where many fell 5-9%.

After the 10 yr treasury rates fell all the way to under 0.5, it is climbing back pretty fast and why higher-rates funds are crashing too. Until rates are not stabilized I don't see a good future for bonds or stocks.

Several ETF completely got crushed...HYD (HY muni) is down over 33 for YTD while NHMAX is down only -8.5%

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Well, I already posted OMG so nothing is left now.

Securitized=IOFIX -10.7...SEMMX -5.4...VCFAX -4.65

HY Muni=NHMAX -5.95...ORNAX-4.65...GHYAX -4.75     Even high-rated muni...MUNI -2.7%

But wait MINT -1.35% is that supposed to be another "CASH SUB"?

So, we are now finding the meaning of leverage, misprice, no buyers, illiquid bonds and only treasuries are a real price...2008 Deja Vu.

Didn't I tell you to sell weeks ago?   Do you still believe in stay the course no matter what?

It makes me really sad and sick.

Disappointed Face on Google

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Any ideas on why PCI did so well today? I consider it in the equity portion of my AA, and to today it tripled most of my equity funds.

 

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