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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@RainGater wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@RainGater wrote:

Bank loans are screaming today. SPFLX up .04 or 0.41%. Let's see what EIFAX does today.

Bonds are rocking in general as 10 yr is sinking and good for the bond land!


I have a hard time believing in that since I didn't see it during trading hours.  SPFLX is not a typical BL.  See a (chart)

Rates are going down and why I don't want to hold BL.  EIFAX,FFRHX made nothing today.


I know it's not a big deal but SPFLX did move 4 cents the other day. It took a while for them to correct it. It's down 2 cents today though and it's no surprise as the 30 year hit a record low today! FWIW, EIFAX is down a little bit more.

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/spflx/quote

 


RG, I just don't understand why you want to be in bank loans when other bond categories are exploding up?

HY Munis defies gravity :-)

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:
RG, I just don't understand why you want to be in bank loans when other bond categories are exploding up?

HY Munis defies gravity :-)


Bank loans (SPFLX and EIFAX) are my contrarian play and I have about 8% on them. I have the usual bond high fliers as well (VCFIX, PFINX, SEMMX, PIMIX, JMSIX). 

Yes, HY munis are bond OEF TSLAs - I couldn't get myself to buy NHMAX in the 18.20s and now it's at 18.72. Unbelievable!

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@RainGater wrote:


I created a free trial and can see the fund minimums and the TF (Lesser of 3% Trade Value or 14.95, per Transaction). I see that PRWCX is available for a minimum of $2,500. Is it for real as I thought it is closed everywhere?


Last I check it was closed to new investors.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Vcfix , Semmx, Pimix ... Are not “ high flyers”. IOFIX and NHMRX/ORNAX/OPTAX are high flyers . 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I ran a test at IB on PRWCX and it let me go up to the point of submit to buy it so it looks like it is possible . Don’t officially know unless I press submit. 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Sortatino2 wrote:

I ran a test at IB on PRWCX and it let me go up to the point of submit to buy it so it looks like it is possible . Don’t officially know unless I press submit. 


I talked to the IBKR customer support via chat and they are clueless. Initially the agent said that it's available. Then, I told them that it is closed according to the T Rowe website and he says then I have to go with what is mentioned in T Rowe website. Clueless!

Their customer support chat system is so horrible that I cannot even believe how people put up with this nonsense.  It will say that it's connecting to an agent and nothing will show up for several minutes. When you lose all interest, someone will show up. Every response usually takes 2 - 5 minutes. This is after struggling for more than 30 minutes yesterday and 20 minutes today. Compared to Ameritrade's customer service, they are not even in the same league. Horrible! Fidelity's chat is miles ahead and at least you will know that someone will respond.  

IBKR website including the order entry and portfolio pages look like 1990s all over again. They have to either look at Ameritrade or Schwab or Fidelity and fine tune a lot or maybe, redesign the whole site. I lost all interest in them after my horrible experience with their chat as well as the navigation.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Sortatino2 wrote:

Vcfix , Semmx, Pimix ... Are not “ high flyers”. IOFIX and NHMRX/ORNAX/OPTAX are high flyers . 


If I want real high fliers, I will stick with stocks, like TSLA or MSFT or NVDA or AMD as they provide the best bang for the buck. I want the bond funds to zig while equities zag and vice versa. I prefer bond OEFs to return in the 4 - 6% range with a low SD, less volatility, and very low drawdowns. If they return a little bit more, I am happy but that is not a primary objective of why I am in the bond funds.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

FD1001 & Everyone here,
We're both retirees, on Social Security with Medicare,already downsized & expenses are met & under control...
 I like this Bond fund analysis thread...very informative & points me in the right direction.

My basic question is as Bond mutual funds, Bond ETF's Portfolio Investor now...
1. How should I direct my fund's all Income may be generated Monthly/Qtrly/Semi or Annually?
...Into to my Fidelity Money Market MM & Cash a/c?
2. Or Reinvest into the same Bond Fund? is that Possible?

Btw, just returned from 2 Months trip to India & Only M* forum notification I got was on this "2020  bond funds analysis"
on iPhone/email with a link & I was able to see it all without any issue!
I'd appreciate your help & any comments.
Thanks in Advance.
Majick

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Majick wrote:


My basic question is as Bond mutual funds, Bond ETF's Portfolio Investor now...
1. How should I direct my fund's all Income may be generated Monthly/Qtrly/Semi or Annually?
...Into to my Fidelity Money Market MM & Cash a/c?
2. Or Reinvest into the same Bond Fund? is that Possible?


In my retirement accounts I have it set up to automatically Reinvest the Dividends and Capital Gains distributions from OEF bond funds back into the same fund (To manually deal with distributions each month seems like a waste of time to me).

At Fidelity, to set this up --

  • Hold curser over ‘Accounts & Trade’ tab (upper left hand corner) and select Account Features
  • Then click on Brokerages & Trading
  • Then click on Dividends and Capital Gains

Note: In taxable account, I generally don't automatically reinvest dividends, because that would set up a separate tax lot for each auto-reinvest.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Analysis at the end, after the performance.

Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020

    • Multi
    • PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
    • PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
    • JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
    • JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
    • PTIAX….3.7….1.0
    • Multi(high % securitized)
    • PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0
    • EIXIX…..1.6….-0.1
    • VCFAX...1.75...-0.05
    • IOFIX.....2.85....+0.1
    • SEMMX...1.8....0    (ST duration, 3 year SD<1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    • DHEIX….1.4….0.35 (ST duration, 3 year SD<1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    • HY Munis
    • PHMIX…..4.6.....1
    • NHMAX....5.35.....1
    • MMHAX....4.15.…..1
    • OPTAX.....6.3.....1.
    • ORNAX….5.3……1.3
    • GHYAX......4.4......1
    • GWMEX….5.3…...1.5  (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    • NVHAX……2.8……0.4  (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    • Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    • USIBX.......3.4.....0.7
    • BCOIX......3.5…...0.9
    • PINCX……3.5..…0.9
    • BND….......3.7…....1.1
    • Bank Loans/Floating rate
    • EIFAX.......-1.05.....-1.6
    • Uncontrain/Nontrad
    • IISIX..........0.4....-0.6
    • PUTIX......-0.1….-0.2
    • PAJZX……-1.45….-3.6
    • HY +EM
    • HYG.........-1.75.....-2.6
    • PHIYX.......-1.5.....-2.4
    • ZEOIX……-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY, 3 year SD<1)
    • FNMIX……0.2……-2.4
    • Corporate
    • PIGIX….…3.2.….-0.15
    • VCIT……..3.4…..0.8
    • Preferred
    • PFINX…...-0.4……-3.2
    • OTHER
    • FXAIX.…..-8.3..…-11.4  (SP500)
    • PCI………-5.4... -7.6  (CEF)
    • “CASH” SUB (most with 3 years SD<1 or close to it)
    • SEMMX...1.8....0     
    • DHEIX….1.4….0.35
    • ZEOIX…-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY)
    • DBLSX….0.75….0.1
    • LALDX….1.0….0.1
    • SSTHX….-0.85….-1.2  (ST HY)
    • MWCIX….1.0.….-0.1
    • PMZIX….1.3….0.25
    • BTMIX….1.3.…0.3 (ST Muni but I prefer NVHAX for LT)

 

Observations:

Last week was a clear way to separate the winner from the loser. Rates were down dramatically, stocks are in correction and panic is in the air. Since last week was such a major one I decided to post about YTD + one week.

Multi- mixed bag last week.  PIMIX+PUCZX lost badly while PTIAX shined. Most in securitized did OK

HY Munis continues to be a great category with 1+% for the week and very strong YTD and much better than Inter-Term higher rated funds..

Inter term – did well as expected when rates are down

Bank loans – as expected were down but not as much as HY.  I use this category only when I know rates are going up.

Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and not impressive which tells you it’s usually not a good category LT

HY+EM – both lost money last week and not doing well YTD.

Corp – This category did well last week and YTD but PIGIX didn’t do well last week.

SP500-in correction

PCI-as expected from a CEF it was down last week.  At times like this CEFs are exposed.

“CASH” Sub-a unique category to make more money with minimal risk at SD<1.  It is obvious the best funds(SEMMX,DHEIX,PMZIX) are mostly in securitized which is my favorite category anyway. DHEIX has 80+% in investment-grade bonds if you like "safer" bonds.  SEMMX has the best peformance. PMZIX has done well YTD but not as good as the first 2 for 3 years.

===========================

Generic Views

My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.

HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.  OPTAX has done best YTD

The Multi funds I’m interested are SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,PIMIX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX,PUCZX.  SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7. VCFAX+EIXIX are pretty good and invest at 85-90+% in securitized.  JMUTX+JMSIX are more diversified, actually, JMSIX was a nice surprise by losing just -0.1%.   PIMIX+PUCZX are funds with moving parts and did worse than others, they are now going to my second-tier list. PTIAX has the best momo YTD so I have to pay attention.

“CASH” Sub-Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX(ZEOIX is off the list)  as a cash sub LT, see 3 year SD<1(link).  In taxable you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT

IISIX disappointed.  Last year It looked like a better option for 3 years but VCFAX is the winner.  Again, funds with too many moving parts(PIMIX,PUCZX,PUTIX,PAJZX,IISIX) didn’t do well at this time of need.

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Be careful with bond CEFs. They can surprise on the downside. I am just watching Pimco complex PKO, PDI, PCI. Damage may not be done yet.   https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PKO&compare=PDI,PCI&id=p00782954410

Muni CEFs started to break only last Thursday/Friday. Again, don't rush into them. I am watching them to add to positions and have limit-orders in place.   https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=NMZ&compare=NZF,PML,XMPT&id=p18964758673

YBB
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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I've been perusing one of the issues with Pimix drag within the sector and know last year there had been some drag on not only Pimix but their cef Navs due to an expectation of yield curve steepening. Looking at their latest portfolio they are now short 5yr, long 10yr and long 30yr ultra. Where is their under performance coming from?

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

IMO, the PIMCO investment committee hasn't really changed their tune much since el-Erian published When Markets Collide back in 08(?). At least in the one PIMCO OEF that I follow, they have consistently shorted LT Developed Market debt and stayed long Emerging Markets debt. Not a great strategy when the herd rushes toward safety.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@DJANG0 wrote:

IMO, the PIMCO investment committee hasn't really changed their tune much since el-Erian published When Markets Collide back in 08(?). At least in the one PIMCO OEF that I follow, they have consistently shorted LT Developed Market debt and stayed long Emerging Markets debt. Not a great strategy when the herd rushes toward safety.


Well, that would be Robert Arnott's feeder funds PAAIX/PAUIX. Someday he would be right. I think his firm makes more money on Fundamental Indexing than on his market calls.

YBB
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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

https://www.schwab.wallst.com/Prospect/Research/mutualfunds/portfolio.asp?symbol=PIMIX

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/mutual-funds/income-fund/inst

The Holdings Report on the 2nd link to pimco.com - income fund lists individual holdings.  

Added by edit: Click on See More under Category Fund Literature.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I think the Fed will cut more and rates will continue to drift lower.

I was looking for a fund to park my money until things come down but also make some money and searched for the followings:

1) higher rated bonds.

2) flexible.   The above 2 mean...the Intermediate Core-Plus category.

3) The securitized category should be the biggest because this category behave better in rate changes.  Also some IG Corp bonds.

4) higher income than 3% which is harder to find in a fund with higher rated bonds.

5) ST+LT + last 1-2 weeks with good performance

and I found only one winner  PINCX(link).      ER=0.74        AUM=2.7 Bill         yield > 3%       IG rating > 90%   Duration=5.1    securitized > 62%

TGLMX has better performance YTD but not 1-3 years and no corp but Yield=3.9.  PTIAX is another possibility, mainly in lower-rated securitized + some Munis, yield about 3.9%.  PINCX has better performance for YTD+one year.  Chart of all 3.

BCOIX.DODIX,USIBX,PDBZX  performance trails for YTD,1,3 years and yield < 3%

I don't want to be in a typical Multi like JMUTX,JMSIX and not in all over 90% securitized funds such as DHEIX,SEMMX,VCFAX.  Of course, it depends on what other funds you own

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

@FD1001:  Have you looked at muni's for taxable accounts?  NVHAX has held up well.  GHYAX has also done OK, still up for the week despite a down day, but may be time to take cap gains.  The question is whether to just sit in cash or redeploy in another muni offering.  Any thoughts on the subject?

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@perrywinkle wrote:

@FD1001:  Have you looked at muni's for taxable accounts?  NVHAX has held up well.  GHYAX has also done OK, still up for the week despite a down day, but may be time to take cap gains.  The question is whether to just sit in cash or redeploy in another muni offering.  Any thoughts on the subject?


I also looked at Munis this morning and decided to wait. 

See one month chart of several Inter-longer duration HY Munis.  They are all down from their top of last week.

Looking at shorter duration HY yield NVHAX,WHYIX,ISHYX (chart-today's numbers will show up on the chart later) and they are also down from last week. 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

@FD1001: Thanks for your thoughts. Wednesday's another day. Overnight futures currently show equity futures up 1.25%+ but given current market volatility that doesn't mean much.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

 

thanks YBB That makes the most amount of sense. It did seem as though they flipped the switch on their yield curve bet that I thought was causing them some pain last August. But I guess the emerging/developed is the overwhelming culprit.

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