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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Oops, I divided by 100, but should have divided by 1,000. At least the dollars are right.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Today was a good day to test someone's theory. I know, it's only one day.
lower volatility.
IISIX -0.1%
SEMMX+PUTIX both lost -0.3% and it's a lot

PIMIX -0.2%

Higher volatility funds
EIXIX +0.1 IOFIX 0% PUCZX 0%

And HY Munis continue to march on with +02 to 0.3%

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

what is in SEMMX that caused it to lose 0.3% when PIMIX lost only 0.17%?  I thought SEMMX is safer.

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Anitya wrote:

what is in SEMMX that caused it to lose 0.3% when PIMIX lost only 0.17%?  I thought SEMMX is safer.


If you are worried about a one or two TENTHS of a percent move difference in a bond fund, you need to to be in a money market fund. It’s a freaking rounding error.

Put it in some perspective people. 

Energy XLE lost another 2.77% and OIH lost almost 5%

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@BigTom wrote:

@Anitya wrote:

what is in SEMMX that caused it to lose 0.3% when PIMIX lost only 0.17%?  I thought SEMMX is safer.


If you are worried about a one or two TENTHS of a percent move difference in a bond fund, you need to to be in a money market fund. It’s a freaking rounding error.

Put it in some perspective people. 

Energy XLE lost another 2.77% and OIH lost almost 5%


SEMMX/SEMPX were incorrectly priced first time around.  SEMPX was corrected to be UP 0.10% in lieu of the previously reported DOWN 0.29%

Nothing wrong with Anitya's perspective.  This fund should NOT have lost money today.

And upon further review by the powers that be, it didn't.

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Just because Intel, which I own, lost 4+% today does not mean I should not understand what is in SEMMX that causes it to deviate from general expectation.  I have plenty of stuff that lost more than 2+% on the day and I know (or at least I think I know) why they lost that much. 

What is up with lecturing? 


@BigTom wrote:

@Anitya wrote:

what is in SEMMX that caused it to lose 0.3% when PIMIX lost only 0.17%?  I thought SEMMX is safer.


If you are worried about a one or two TENTHS of a percent move difference in a bond fund, you need to to be in a money market fund. It’s a freaking rounding error.

Put it in some perspective people. 

Energy XLE lost another 2.77% and OIH lost almost 5%


 

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Anitya,

Please see my previous post.

arriba

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Thanks for the update, arriba.

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

VCFAX is my only bond OEF out of 5 that is up today. I was going to sell it a month or so ago because it was lagging my others but lately (past month) it has been making up for lost time. FCOR was alsp up. 

Edit: long term treasuries up too.  

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Interesting to me is the only bond funds with a drop (minor) were my 2 multi-sector bonds, PIMIX and JMUTX. HY Munis, intermed-core/+, short term, all were modestly up.

Brian

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Analysis at the end, after the performance.

Performance..1 month...YTD as of 1/31/2020

  • Multi
  • PDIIX……1.5.....
  • PUCZX….1.1..…
  • JMUTX....1.15....
  • JMSIX.....0.8……. (JGIAX)
  • Multi(high % securitized)
  • PIMIX.....0.8….
  • EIXIX…..1.1….
  • VCFAX...1.3...
  • IOFIX.....1.8....
  • SEMMX...1.3....  (ST duration, 3 year SD<1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
  • DHEIX….0.6…..4.85 (ST duration, 3 year SD<1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
  • HY Munis
  • PHMIX…..2.1.....
  • NHMAX....2.7.....
  • MMHAX....2.0.…..
  • OPTAX.....2.4....
  • ORNAX….2.6……..
  • GHYAX......2.1......
  • GWMEX….2.6…...  (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
  • NVHAX……1.7……. (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
  • Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
  • USIBX.......2.1.....
  • BCOIX......1.9…....
  • PINCX……2.1..…….
  • BND….......2.0…......
  • Bank Loans/Floating rate
  • EIFAX.......0.5.....
  • Uncontrain/Nontrad
  • IISIX..........0.7....
  • PUTIX......-0.1….
  • PAJZX……0.7….
  • HY +EM
  • HYG.........-0.5.....
  • PHIYX.......0.....
  • ZEOIX……0.3…….(ST HY, 3 year SD<1, good as cash sub)
  • FNMIX……1.4…….
  • Corporate
  • PIGIX….…2.5..….
  • Preferred
  • PFINX…...1.5……
  • OTHER
  • FXAIX.…..0..…(SP500)
  • PCI………0.9... (CEF)

 

Observations:

2020 OPENED WITH A BANG FOR BOND OEFs. Rates were down and many funds did nicely.

Multi-  Another good month, especially for IOFIX and also for SEMMX (per its lower SD).

HY Munis continues to be a great category with 2+% for a month. 

Inter term – did fantastic because rates were down

Bank loans – are lagging

Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and PUTIX fell off the cliff

HY+EM – HYG lost money and EM did pretty well.

Corp – This category was on fire because of the rate cut.

SP500-made zero YTD

===========================

This was one of the best month for my 3 bond funds portfolio at 2%(actually 1.97%).  The majority was invested in HY Muni (2 funds) + one Multi.  Just keep it going ;-)

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Explorer ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

FD - There are two inter plus bond funds that do not make your list, and are not discussed on here, but which I like and have had for quite a few years -

PDBZX    2.46 YTD and 11.97 for 2019 (M*Silver)  - .49 ER - NTF at Schwab - recommended by Schwab

WACPX  1.78 YTD and 12.28 for 2019 (M*Gold) -  .45 ER - $49 purchase fee at Schwab but fee is generally waived on request

I have done as much research on these as I can, and I am aware of the checkered histories of their corporate parents, but given their performance and their portfolios, I was wondering if there is anything about these funds that you find at all cautionary.   I have always valued your bond fund insight, and your comments would be very welcome.  If anyone else has comments, I would welcome those as well.  As I said, for whatever reason, these two funds are not discussed on here.  I realize that BCOIX and DODIX are the traditional favorites, and I can see that M* assigns lower risk ratings to both BCOIX and DODIX than to PDBZX or SEQUX but I do not actually understand the reason.  DODIX has the best Sharpe ratio of the four at 1.36 but BCOIX has the worst at 1.07.  Given their superior performance over the years, I would think PDBZX and WACPX would be the preferable choices.  Any helpful insights would be appreciated.  Thanks.      

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

@BD 

Your 2 funds are pretty good. 3 year comparison(link) shows that USIBX+ PINCX are also pretty good. A quick look at M* shows that PDBZX has over 85% in IG, WACPX  over 90% which is good.

 

PortfolioCAGRStdevBest YearWorst YearMax. DrawdownSharpe RatioSortino Ratio
WACPX6.12% 3.47%12.28%-1.49%-3.95% 1.272.49
USIBX5.69% 2.69%11.06%-0.99%-1.68% 1.483.45
PINCX6.28% 2.87%11.18%0.46%-1.47% 1.594.44
PDBZX6.13% 3.18%11.04%-0.73%-2.57% 1.393.11
DODIX4.93% 2.13%9.75%-0.31%-1.34% 1.533.63
BCOIX5.17% 2.84%10.11%-0.51%-2.25% 1.242.64

 

Running different history performance will show different results.  Predicting risk attributes can be tricky in a real meltdown.

PINCX looks like the best choice from the above table for 3 years.  Pay attention to your 2 funds SD + Max Draw which are worse than the others.

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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Thanks FD . I made 1.75 this month using your momentum approach. I held IOFIX and JMUIX in IRA and IOFIX, OPTAX, and NHMRX in Taxable.  I would have been closer to 2% if I had moved a little quicker into my overweight on HY Muni. I appreciate / understand what you do and it is working really well for me since last year . Keep up the great work and contributions . 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

HI Archer,

I go to a lot of Fidelity Webinars. Tom DeMarco is my favorite fixed income presenter. Take a look at the "Deeper Dive" presentation HERE

As you know, there is a lot more to bond investing than just "chasing price performance". Yield is inversely related to price, so there comes a point when yield is so low that depending on the continued price performance of the previous 12 months is impractical.

Are these slides from the webinar that you attended?

Thank you

Holiday

Bond Callan.jpgmuni 1.jpgmunicipal bond issuance.jpgtotal debt outstanding.jpgmuni weighting.jpg

corporate market.jpgTreasury trend.jpg

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I have heard for several years that

1) rates can only go up(one example: Gundluch said they will be at 6% in 2020-1)

2) bonds would have very low returns

3) riskier bonds would collapse soon

4) that concentration isn't a good idea while the best funds are. 

5) and sometimes it's "easier" while many experts were wrong.  If the Fed says they will lower rates or the Fed announce repo operation what do you think rates are going to do?

I mainly pay attention to trends regardless ;-) 

 

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

@Holiday Yes the slides are from the same webinar I referred to earlier. Thanks for posting the slides. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Looking at FD’s table, I feel smart selling PUTIX at the end of last year. Usually anything I do is the wrong thing ... but this time, though.
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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

PUTIX once had a muni component. The latest M* portfolio

Exposure
vs. Category 
Sectors Fund % Cat %
 Government22.6524.70
 Municipal0.000.61
 Corporate17.7017.09
 Securitized24.9532.84
 Cash & Equivalents17.8118.31
 Other16.896.45
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Follower ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Chang what do you mean by "IF" and "IG"? I realize they are investing lingo, but what do they stand for?

On a related story, what do you think of VMLUX as a substitute for a money market fund in taxable account? Thanks.

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