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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I think right now Munis would be my highest bond conviction asset.  There was a lot of carnage but the Fed is supporting treasuries and Munis.

I don't want to be in treasuries which relate to rates
Don't want HY which correlates to stocks.
Munis may be OK no matter what rates or stocks are doing.  The Muni ETF are exploding and yesterday Muni funds were up
 
muni.PNG
 
 
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Follower ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

FD,

GIBCX has held up well but perhaps time to sell? Same with AGG?

VIMBX has held up well. I hope it's making some opportunistic purchases and positioning itself for some reasonable gains.

Thank you,

Paul

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Contributor ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I am holding on to aggregate bond funds.  The higher the credit, the more likely the fund will rebound.

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FatKat wrote:

I am holding on to aggregate bond funds.  The higher the credit, the more likely the fund will rebound.


The higher-rated bonds will rebound but not as much as the lower rated bonds like HY, Bank loans, Munis because higher-rated held pretty well and the highest rating such as treasuries (and even BND) are up YTD.   So, if you are looking to make more money, like me, you want to buy lower-rated bonds.

But, if higher-rated bonds are part of your LT AA and ballast your stocks then do nothing.

Special MBS funds such as IOFIX,SEMMX,VCFAX are still in the dog house,

bnd.PNG

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

I think right now Munis would be my highest bond conviction asset.  There was a lot of carnage but the Fed is supporting treasuries and Munis.

I don't want to be in treasuries which relate to rates
Don't want HY which correlates to stocks.
Munis may be OK no matter what rates or stocks are doing.  The Muni ETF are exploding and yesterday Muni funds were up
 
 

In addition to what I said yesterday.

Corp bonds are going up too but harder to figure out because they go from junk to high-rated but...are high-rated bonds really high when the company is in trouble.


MBS is untouchable 


Multi can be another option if you don't know what to do.  JMUTX,JMSIX lost their way.  PIMIX looks OK, PDIIX rebound is better + AUM is smaller + much more diversified

FundPIMIXPDIIX
AUM(in Billions)1374.4
Effective Duration (Years)2.425.47
Sector Allocation (%)1MVMV
US Government-Related 2-2.1824.19
Securitized 679.6219.15
Invest. Grade Credit9.1219.10
High Yield Credit11.3126.57
Non-U.S. Developed-16.7011.24
Emerging Markets 318.7726.91
Other 42.784.00
Net Other Short Duration Instruments 5-2.73-31.17
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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

High quality mortgages like high quality muni are both doing well . VMBS and MBB as examples 

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Sortatino2 wrote:

High quality mortgages like high quality muni are both doing well . VMBS and MBB as examples 


I'm not looking for a category that did well but where I will make more money from here.  High quality MBS did well but not Muni or HY Muni

muni.PNG

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Observation for last week:

1) The Fed support helped stocks + bonds

2) As expected Core and core-plus IG bonds (BND,BCOIX,PINCX) made about 3%

3) Multi were all over, the worse were specialized MBS (IOFIX,SEMMX,VCFAX), some (JMUTX,JMSIX) were negative but PIMIX at 3.8 and PDIIX at 5.6

4) Munis + HY Munis were by far the best with 9-11% return and my highest conviction category.

5) Pimco is shining again with PIMIX,PIGIX,PDIIX.  Maybe investors are not pulling that much money out.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

FD:"5) Pimco is shining again with PIMIX,PIGIX,PDIIX.  Maybe investors are not pulling that much money out."

Just my opinion for whatever its worth, but this is one point in your post that I have more doubts about.  These funds fell hard when equities were tanking, and now they appear to performing better as equities have rebounded this week.  Since I don't trust equities to continue their rebound of last week, I would be skeptical of these funds recent positive performance to continue.  I prefer to trust Munis and Investment Grade Intermediates, over multisector and Corporate bonds, at this point in time.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

dt: "prefer to trust Munis and Investment Grade Intermediates, over multisector and Corporate bonds, at this point in time."

dt, are you referring to HY Munis and Investment Grade Munis?

Hootz 

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:

FD:"5) Pimco is shining again with PIMIX,PIGIX,PDIIX.  Maybe investors are not pulling that much money out."

Just my opinion for whatever its worth, but this is one point in your post that I have more doubts about.  These funds fell hard when equities were tanking, and now they appear to performing better as equities have rebounded this week.  Since I don't trust equities to continue their rebound of last week, I would be skeptical of these funds recent positive performance to continue.  I prefer to trust Munis and Investment Grade Intermediates, over multisector and Corporate bonds, at this point in time.


Sure, I agree that Munis is the top category and where I have most of my money.

After looking again you are correct on YTD basis, the Pimco funds are doing fine but not above average but looking from the bottom PIGIX is doing better than VCIT.  PIMIX,PDIIX are doing better than the category but they may get worse again.  Good catch.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Hootz wrote:

dt: "prefer to trust Munis and Investment Grade Intermediates, over multisector and Corporate bonds, at this point in time."

dt, are you referring to HY Munis and Investment Grade Munis?

Hootz 


For me personally, I prefer Investment Grade Munis, as a very cautious investor, looking for a relatively low risk re-entry option in this bear market.  I suspect good traders see more earning potential in the HY Muni options--did you see how NMHAX went from one of the worst, to one of the best performing funds in its category last week?  

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:

@Hootz wrote:

dt: "prefer to trust Munis and Investment Grade Intermediates, over multisector and Corporate bonds, at this point in time."

dt, are you referring to HY Munis and Investment Grade Munis?

Hootz 


For me personally, I prefer Investment Grade Munis, as a very cautious investor, looking for a relatively low risk re-entry option in this bear market.  I suspect good traders see more earning potential in the HY Muni options--did you see how NMHAX went from one of the worst, to one of the best performing funds in its category last week?  


dt: "For me personally, I prefer Investment Grade Munis, as a very cautious investor, looking for a relatively low risk re-entry option in this bear market"

Have you considered VWIUX? I am not certain if Admiral Shares are available at Schwab.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Hootz: "Have you considered VWIUX? I am not certain if Admiral Shares are available at Schwab."

I follow VWITX on a watch list.  VWIUX is not available to retail customers at Schwab. Its a good fund.

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Another observation most/all of the shorter duration HY Munis with the best=highest Sharpe ratio have the same volatility as the intermediate M* group for YTD performance.

YTD...NVHAX -6%...WHYIX -5.9%...ISHAX -6.45...(chart)

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Valued Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Special securtotized category

I think that non-agency RMBS/CMBC/other will come around in several months(maybe weeks) and where I will start buying again.
The question is do I want to be in funds with mostly securitized (IOFIX,EIXIX,SEMMX,VCFAX,DPFNX) and making more money potentially or take a less risky approach and buy something like PIMIX(more diversified) or both.
If I look at YTD (chart), EIXIX would be my choice to get back into this category but we are not there yet :-)

In the Multi category, PTIAX looks like a good option to start nibbling.  It invests mainly in securitized + Munis and credit quality isn't bad either.

ptiax.PNG

 

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Explorer ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Hi FD & M* valuable Contributors here,

I see many funds discussed here as a potential Watch list/BuyList coming up soon
as a Muni Bond Funds or Bond & Equity funds.

Seems many discussed funds are "I" Institutional class or not in NTF network  & No-load funds type?
Where/How do you purchase these funds? 
From which Brokererage House? From Fidelity, TD Ameritrade or Schwab?
or gladly Pay Transactions Fees up to $50 Buy/$50 sell = $100 RT?
or Pay upfront Low % Load?

Any detailed /Info like where/How to Buy or Which Class of Equivalent NTF Fund or at Which brokerage will help.

as I was able to buy from Wells Trade WT Wells Fargo & Vanguard
but closed out accounts due to poor service.
My Lower transaction fees "Scottrade" a/c got Hijacked by TD Ameritrade.
& now TD Ameritrade may get merged with Schwab...sometimes this year... Yet T.B.D. To Be Determined.

Thanks in Advance.
Majick.

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I am not familiar with brokerages other than Fidelity so I can only speak for that one. If you search for the fund by name rather than ticker, often you will find the investor version of the fund. In some cases Fid will do little more than list an institutional fund yet have full info on the investor class. Case in point PIMIX/PONAX.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Majick wrote:

Hi FD & M* valuable Contributors here,

I see many funds discussed here as a potential Watch list/BuyList coming up soon
as a Muni Bond Funds or Bond & Equity funds.

Seems many discussed funds are "I" Institutional class or not in NTF network  & No-load funds type?
Where/How do you purchase these funds? 
From which Brokererage House? From Fidelity, TD Ameritrade or Schwab?
or gladly Pay Transactions Fees up to $50 Buy/$50 sell = $100 RT?
or Pay upfront Low % Load?

Any detailed /Info like where/How to Buy or Which Class of Equivalent NTF Fund or at Which brokerage will help.

as I was able to buy from Wells Trade WT Wells Fargo & Vanguard
but closed out accounts due to poor service.
My Lower transaction fees "Scottrade" a/c got Hijacked by TD Ameritrade.
& now TD Ameritrade may get merged with Schwab...sometimes this year... Yet T.B.D. To Be Determined.

Thanks in Advance.
Majick.


I am only with Schwab now.  When you use the Schwab screening function for various different fund categories, you can select no load and no fee funds, which will give you a wide array of funds available, including some institutional class funds and many funds in which loads have been waived.  Some Institutional share class funds have special reductions of the minimum investing amounts to much lower than normally charged.  You can also select no load funds that do charge transaction fees but with lower required minimum investments.

I think each brokerage is different in their contractual arrangements with various funds, so you almost have to become familiar with the details of those brokerages to better understand their differences.

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Contributor ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

What I do is cumbersome and time-consuming.  M* used to have a nifty feature that unfortunately was dropped.  You used to be able to find a share class, hit the Purchase tab and see all the share classes of the fund.  Now, I find a share class on Fidelity website and go to top of page for the Prospectus.  The Prospectus will list all the share classes.  Then I search each one on Fidelity and find the cheapest share class available to me like an F-1, R6 or I-3 share class.  

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