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Participant ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

My exact same list along with ARBIX . Unfortunately, I can’t buy the following at Vanguard: 

DPFNX

IOFIX

HOBIX 

What are your thoughts on ARBIX. I like that it is a completely different animal than The  rest which are securitized (apart from HOBIX) but has that same steady progression with limited drawdown/volatility. If you look at It’s performance as a hedge fund prior to it converting to mutual fund along with performance after conversion it is a steady 5  percent a year. Not amazing but solid for when I am short of ideas other than securitized. 

On HOBIX I am really really intrigued and may shift some money over to Schwab (have an existing small dollar account) to play interest rate cycles . It really spikes nicely on rising rates and holds it own in all markets . I like a lot better than Floater Funds (SPFLX, EIFAX) for those scenarios . 

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Participant ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

 
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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Sortatino2ARBIX is a solid risk/reward fund but not for me.  I have done better every year compared to it because I use momentum and sell when risk is elevated but it may be good for others.  It could be used as another category to stocks+bonds.  Over the years most alternative disappointed as a LT hold.

 20182019YTD
ARBIX2.076.386.2

 

As a trader it's time to move to another broker.

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Participant ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Fully invested now in BDKAX, SEMMX, and ARBIX. HSA is IOFIX. May drop ARBIX when junky securitized continue to go up every day . Today:

BDKAX + 0.14

SEMMX + 0.11

IOFIX + 0

Continuing to  track High Yield Muni. NHMRX is top of my list and may replace ARBIX with entry investment in NHMRX. 

Also on my radar are HOBIX and TSIIX . Unfortunately can’t buy HOBIX at Vanguard and would need to shift money to existing Schwab account . 

Having said all that, hard to justify anything other than the beautiful junky securitized charts for BDKAX, SEMMX, and IOFIX. Rocket ship up .

 

 

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Doesn’t it concern anyone these funds which have been “rocket ship up” since end of March/early April have suddenly been discovered on the investing boards.  The best trades are the ones where the crowd isn’t all in.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Junkster wrote:

Sent you a private message.  But doesn’t it concern anyone these funds which have been “rocket ship up” since end of March/early April have suddenly been discovered on the investing boards.  The best trades are the ones where the crowd isn’t all in.


This doesn't concern me since I would never purchase any of the three "rocket ship" funds.
Although I may have missed the steep ascent, I don't have to fret about potentially steep declines in the future.
Being somewhat contrarian, I agree that the best trades are often unpopular at the time.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Novices/newbees beware of lead on by some on secret bond funds. Strange what kind of folks this thread is drawing now.

YBB
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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@yogibearbull wrote:

Novices/newbees beware of lead on by some on secret bond funds. Strange what kind of folks this thread is drawing now.


Snipe.jpg

https://blog.nature.org/science/2014/01/14/the-snipe-hunt-myth-and-reality/

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Contributor ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Yugo racing (which I would define as stretching for returns in bond OEFs) has been profitable. Not nearly as profitable as timing the equity market. But it is like the equity market in slow motion. When there is a market meltdown the OEF bond fund declines begin more slowly and there is more time to get out.

Unfortunately, when something bad happens, there is a ‘go to cash’ mentality that is destructive to market structures. In correcting this hopefully, the FED can restore confidence to all markets. But non-liquid markets are outliers.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@VA-Tech wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

Novices/newbees beware of lead on by some on secret bond funds. Strange what kind of folks this thread is drawing now.


 

https://blog.nature.org/science/2014/01/14/the-snipe-hunt-myth-and-reality/


VT/GB, as expected

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

These funds and others have been mentioned for years already.  Great funds don't have to be a "secret" to do well, so let’s mentioned several.  I have been recommending the following for years:

PIMIX had amazing years investing in securitized (and some where IOFIX does) and its AUM grew to be one of the biggest.  

PRWCX as one of the best allocation funds.  It has been a great fund for 10-15 years.  It ranks at the top 1% for 3-5-10-15 years.

QQQ as one of the best growth funds. It ranks at the top 2-9% for 3-5-10-15 years

===============

BTW, I mentioned IOFIX and used it on/off for months during the last 2-3 years but always was dancing at the exit.  It's a niche/unique fund and one of the biggest in legacy RMBS with AUM=3.2 Bil.  If you were looking for best performing bond funds in 2019 up to 02/2020 IOFIX would show up at the top for 3 year return.  The "secret" was out long time ago.

I see an improvement because IOFIX invest only in the mid 70" in RMBS instead of 90+% before + it has 9% cash + 1.9% VG MBS ETF + 1.9% in Ishare MBS ETF.  This will help for redemption in the future.  

 

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Participant ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Momo funds by definition are popular or they would not be going up . I don’t see everyone on this thread investing in these funds as evidenced by recent posts. I rode 1/2 of my portfolio in IOFIX last year into this year and hopped out at first moment of stress. All documented on Buy Sell and Why Thread . I have been in and out a few times since then . Not a new find to me . Over last 1.5 years have been shifting between High Yield Muni and Multi Sector including pure Securitized as momentum dictates . I have a very quick trigger to pull the plug . 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Sortatino2 wrote:

Momo funds by definition are popular or they would not be going up . I don’t see everyone on this thread investing in these funds as evidenced by recent posts. I rode 1/2 of my portfolio in IOFIX last year into this year and hopped out at first moment of stress. All documented on Buy Sell and Why Thread . I have been in and out a few times since then . Not a new find to me . Over last 1.5 years have been shifting between High Yield Muni and Multi Sector including pure Securitized as momentum dictates . I have a very quick trigger to pull the plug . 


Yep, this thread is for several types of investors and risk.

BTW, Novices/newbees beware of investing in CEFs, trade several times a year, change asset allocation and own more than 5 funds which are done by the same posters who worry about Novices/newbees and why it's hilarious.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Interesting that some come to read and think they have found  "free" investment advisors  on the internet. Who in their right mind would spend money blindly without learning and doing research? But there is a lot of good info here and you can learn.

For a free advisor start with Christine Benz.


@yogibearbull wrote:

Novices/newbees beware of lead on by some on secret bond funds. Strange what kind of folks this thread is drawing now.


 

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Perhaps readers just want to see what posters are doing with their bond funds, like moving from one type to another or cashing out. Why assume readers intentions to follow in step? 

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Follower ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I'm scared freckless when the bondies are buying what I own. May be time to move on and look for a new goldmine.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Thanks for the disclaimers intended for newbies. Yes, we got caught up buying funds mentioned here without adequate due diligence ... we learned.

But you have to admit that these boards had/have some phenomenally successful investors who shared invaluable insights. Perhaps that's the appeal of these boards ... that you'll find some timely 'pearls' that would be missing from Christine Benz's structured analyses.

Obviously, we could pay for financial advice ... but some of us want to pursue a DIY approach with some reliance on these boards. NOT a whole lot of reliance, but some.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Now that you forced me to read morningstar's front page, here's something interesting from Wednesday's commentary:

'It's been a banner year for taxable-bond funds. To be sure, their $240 billion of outflows in March was brutal. Yet they gathered a whopping $450 billion in the other seven months, including $77 billion in August. Some of that likely owed to rebalancing away from a hot equities market. Investors targeted core bond exposure, plowing a combined $34 billion into intermediate core and intermediate core-plus bond funds.'

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

(link) "The Federal Reserve has bought more than half of $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) since March. That is a record pace for just over 6 months, surpassing previous quantitative easing (QE) efforts by the US central bank. Before the coronavirus outbreak, the Fed had begun to unwind some of its holdings in 2018 and 2019. But the US central bank quickly reversed course as the magnitude of the pandemic unfolded, as this QE measure has been among the most substantial actions taken by the US to blunt the negative economic impact of COVID-19."

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Just so there is no confusion the Fed is not buying back and has not bought back any non agency rmbs.  

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