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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

VaTech:"I once had great sympathy for those who got swept up in the hoopla exemplified by many of the funds that have been much touted on this thread. Now I realize it's part of a learning process that some investors must go through. The real shame is that this thread can be misinterpreted as a "buy list" for investors wanting a lower-risk haven only to realize later that they have stepped onto a land mine."

VaTech, I have never seen this thread as a "buy list".  It is a huge list of Bond Oefs, many of which are listed because many other posters requested that their portfolio bond funds be included.  FD discusses a huge list of of bond oefs, focusing on total return performance.  When FD does periodically discuss what he has done recently with his own personal portfolio, he is clearly a trader, who buys and sells rather frequently, and he tells you that, and he also tells you that he would not recommend others do what he does.  I look at his huge list of funds,  and currently I don't use any of the funds on his list, but I do treat this thread as a resource, which may stimulate some due diligence analysis, to see "IF" the funds meet my personal criteria for fund selection--often they don't and often I choose to not include those funds on my personal watch lists.  I find as much value, maybe more value, from posters other than FD, who periodically are willing to discuss bond oefs they are using.

I personally do not need you to "save" me from FD and his fund listings and analysis.  If you have bond oefs that you personally use, and you are willing to list those with the reasons you selected them, then I would value your participation on this thread.  However, if you want to just continually attack FD, attack his personal strategy in fund selection,  then I would just say that I don't value that kind of participation and find it very disruptive and distracting.

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:

VaTech:"I once had great sympathy for those who got swept up in the hoopla exemplified by many of the funds that have been much touted on this thread. Now I realize it's part of a learning process that some investors must go through. The real shame is that this thread can be misinterpreted as a "buy list" for investors wanting a lower-risk haven only to realize later that they have stepped onto a land mine."

VaTech, I have never seen this thread as a "buy list" ...

I personally do not need you to "save" me from FD and his fund listings and analysis. 


I think we can agree that "you" are not the target audience for my concern. I think we can agree that not every forum reader brings the same background and knowledge to the table. The allure of momentum-trading bond funds (based on purported results) could entice the less knowledgeable into a regretful action. I think we can agree that commentary from OTHER posters on this rather long thread indicates that some clearly did not know or understand what those risks were, especially in "bond-land", generally thought lower-risk. I think we can also agree that several highly-touted funds on this thread have performed abysmally; at least one fund mentioned many times, over a long period of time, advocated as a cash-sub (SEMMX) was legendarily bad at a time that "real-cash" would have been a haven in the #@$^@^-storm.

Having a contrarian voice in the room is not a crime. If you think my posts violate M* posting guidelines, then report.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:

VaTech, I have never seen this thread as a "buy list".  It is a huge list of Bond Oefs, many of which are listed because many other posters requested that their portfolio bond funds be included. 

I personally do not need you to "save" me from FD and his fund listings and analysis.  If you have bond oefs that you personally use, and you are willing to list those with the reasons you selected them, then I would value your participation on this thread.  However, if you want to just continually attack FD, attack his personal strategy in fund selection,  then I would just say that I don't value that kind of participation and find it very disruptive and distracting.


 

As usual, well said, dt.

By the way, not a bond fund, but FD recently mentioned a market neutral fund, ARBIX, which has an excellent risk/reward profile and could be useful if you are interested in some diversification away from a bond heavy portfolio.

The fund has a low SD of 2.87, along with an excellent YTD total return of 6.15% and a three year return of 5.4%. Except for a 3.1% loss during the recent March market crash, the fund's biggest monthly loss during its three year history was 0.38% in November 2018.

Good luck,

Fred

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@VA-Tech wrote: Having a contrarian voice in the room is not a crime.

 

But, beating a dead horse may be a crime.

You may not realize it, but your obsession with FD and the repetitive nature of your posts is actually quite tiresome.

Here is a suggestion, if you are so concerned about forum readers who do not "bring the same background and knowledge to the table", why don't you consider doing something positive, like starting a bond thread for "the less knowledgeable" among us, for example? Wouldn't that be a more productive use of your time?

Fred


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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Fred,

We all know why VA-Tech has been posting on this thread.  I still didn't see a post of verification or denial related to his previous M* name.

=======================

This morning I was looking for bond OEFs with the following YTD>0 + One month>1% + SD<5 + reasonable looking chart for 1-3-12 months. 

I got several inflation protected funds HIPYX,SWRSX,PITAX + PMZIX + PFIIX + SVARX (interesting fund).  Then I added several other funds from my existing lists GIBLX,MNCPX,JSIAX,PTIAX,TSIIX

 Total ReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Week1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
PFIIX0.060.82.961.313.643.454.52HighHigh
PMZIX0.141.032.633.394.83.433.44Above AverageLow
HIPYX0.261.063.737.048.334.113.57AverageAverage
PITAX0.220.663.58.189.24.563.93AverageAverage
SWRSX0.250.663.288.979.785.283.78Above AverageAverage
SVARX0.081.216.0417.9519.758.714.82HighAve
          
GIBLX0.340.223.6411.8911.625.873.27HighLow
MNCPX00.533.644.566.253.63.6AverageLow
JSIAX00.152.73.144.2133.77AverageBelow Average
PTIAX0.30.343.073.693.954.544.63HighLow
TSIIX0.140.663.735.096.434.754.92Above AverageBelow Average

 

hipyx.PNG

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

We all know why VA-Tech has been posting on this thread.  I still didn't see a post of verification or denial related to his previous M* name.

I don't understand what you are writing. Are you sure you haven't written something that was later "cleansed" by a moderator?

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Another inflation fund to consider is American Funds BFIAX (A shares).  Top quartile rank last 5 years, ytd 12.37% , 3 mo. 3.17%, 1 year 13.67%, 3 year 5.82, SD 3.40. M* rates it below avg risk, high return.  No dividend yet this year, but total return has been decent, second only to ANBAX.  I've been in it since March when I sold all my stock funds, and added to it on 9/01 after selling half of my Corp Bd fund as the dividend has been steadily declining.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

SVARX is kind of interesting.  I went into it and then out of it PDQ because at times it can act pretty weirdly.  At least to me it seemed to do so.  YMMV.

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Explorer ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I am not an M* premium subscriber.  Hence, my access to the Portfolio of SVARX is limited.  M* does say that the ER is 2.95% (!) and that 75% of the assets are in the top 10 holdings, which would seem quite concentrated.  Switching to Fidelity, it provides that SVARX is largely a fund of funds, so it would appear that one is paying almost 3% just to own mostly other funds.  As well, it looks like 35% of the fund is invested in BDKNX  and IOFIX.  It would seem better to purchase these funds outright, rather than through SVARX, although perhaps that is not possible through some brokerages.  Just FYI.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@SeahawksFan wrote:

I am not an M* premium subscriber.  Hence, my access to the Portfolio of SVARX is limited.  M* does say that the ER is 2.95% (!) and that 75% of the assets are in the top 10 holdings, which would seem quite concentrated.  Switching to Fidelity, it provides that SVARX is largely a fund of funds, so it would appear that one is paying almost 3% just to own mostly other funds.  As well, it looks like 35% of the fund is invested in BDKNX  and IOFIX.  It would seem better to purchase these funds outright, rather than through SVARX, although perhaps that is not possible through some brokerages.  Just FYI.


Good catch and definitely not worth to invest in it.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

@judger wrote:


My purpose for my post is not any kind of criticism of any discussion here but a reflection on how an inexperienced investor in these areas can get in way over their head and encounter serious losses.

I have emphasized a number of securities above that I have read about on these forums, was dazzled by the performance and got bitten to various degrees by. Losses in IOFIX are still HUGE. SEMMX did NOT turn out to be the "Steady Eddie" it looked like. JMSIX wasn't good. Even a large PIMIX investment is still down a couple of %. 

My message, especially to non-traders, is to be very careful of being dazzled by the "performance" and not understanding the potential HUGE losses.

I just thought that a caution to others based on my own missteps might help others to really understand new investment areas before jumping in. A hard learned rule might be to try a small amount and critically evaluate before jumping with no parachute. Another lesson learned is to forget great performance when you are really only looking for a safe dry powder location.   :-(((


I "appreciate" the above warning...BUT...we discussed the above ad nauseam in this thread.

If you want to continue with this please open your own thread.


WOW, FD!!!!! I have never disrespected you here. In fact, I have expressed admiration for your detailed knowledge of this area. You claim that you have expressed your focus " ad nauseam in this thread". Sorry, new and naive investors need to know and understand that you have ONLY one focus: YOU TRADE!

So a thread entitled "2020 - bond funds analysis" is missing a very important phrase. You need to add every thread title you create "FOR TRADERS ONLY!!!!" so that newbies can't miss the point.

Please accept my suggestion in order to avoid new investors going down a primrose lane when they misinterpret "potential SHORT TERM gains" from your well researched bond TRADES.

No criticism meant of your research, only your lack of a very explicit statement ALWAYS of your orientation and the potential losses for those who miss that while looking for income. 

PEACE!!!     :-))))

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@judger wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@judger wrote:


My purpose for my post is not any kind of criticism of any discussion here but a reflection on how an inexperienced investor in these areas can get in way over their head and encounter serious losses.

I have emphasized a number of securities above that I have read about on these forums, was dazzled by the performance and got bitten to various degrees by. Losses in IOFIX are still HUGE. SEMMX did NOT turn out to be the "Steady Eddie" it looked like. JMSIX wasn't good. Even a large PIMIX investment is still down a couple of %. 

My message, especially to non-traders, is to be very careful of being dazzled by the "performance" and not understanding the potential HUGE losses.

I just thought that a caution to others based on my own missteps might help others to really understand new investment areas before jumping in. A hard learned rule might be to try a small amount and critically evaluate before jumping with no parachute. Another lesson learned is to forget great performance when you are really only looking for a safe dry powder location.   :-(((


I "appreciate" the above warning...BUT...we discussed the above ad nauseam in this thread.

If you want to continue with this please open your own thread.


WOW, FD!!!!! I have never disrespected you here. In fact, I have expressed admiration for your detailed knowledge of this area. You claim that you have expressed your focus " ad nauseam in this thread". Sorry, new and naive investors need to know and understand that you have ONLY one focus: YOU TRADE!

So a thread entitled "2020 - bond funds analysis" is missing a very important phrase. You need to add every thread title you create "FOR TRADERS ONLY!!!!" so that newbies can't miss the point.

Please accept my suggestion in order to avoid new investors going down a primrose lane when they misinterpret "potential SHORT TERM gains" from your well researched bond TRADES.

No criticism meant of your research, only your lack of a very explicit statement ALWAYS of your orientation and the potential losses for those who miss that while looking for income. 

PEACE!!!     :-))))


As I said we discussed the above ad nauseam in this thread so why post it again.

I and others make comments about many bond funds including ones for longer term hold. It's a discussion board and thread. I have posted more warning than anybody else on M*.  Different investors have different styles and needs.  The purpose of this thread is to discuss bond funds and not to manage someone portfolio based on their goals.

So again, if you don't like this thread start a new one according to your needs.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

judger: who made you judger? whyn't you and VA-t go start your own FD-corrective thread and leave off with this nonsense of yours?

btw / i sometimes think about when FD decided to stop posting here and, for a while, the whole darn forum basically went into mothballs, but for the thread about him leaving, until he returned and the place came back to life. ha!
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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

judger, you are off base with your comments. You have no standing to tell posters what they should say. Take it up with M* about any disclaimers for people reading this forum.

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Participant ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Gary1952 wrote:

judger, you are off base with your comments. You have no standing to tell posters what they should say. Take it up with M* about any disclaimers for people reading this forum.

Plus linter prior post


Please read VERY carefully what I posted: "My purpose for my post is not any kind of criticism of any discussion here but a reflection on how an inexperienced investor in these areas can get in way over their head and encounter serious losses."

Mine was NOT any attack on FD or anybody here. Just a warning for newbies that might be dazzled by the area before understanding the risks. In all of the years that I have participated on M*, I have always tried to be respectful and have NEVER attacked anybody.

Given this stated purpose, I thought that FD's terse response was not very appropriate.

Enough said, but I am disappointed!   :-(((

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Hey guys - I for one, actually appreciate judger's and VA-Tech's comments and advice to newbies. It's easy to enthusiastically and perhaps unwisely jump in and purchase bond funds that get discussed here ... without sufficient due diligence. I was guilty of that (with losses to show), so am gun-shy now. And that's a good thing.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Ryan - Is there any way to create a private invitation only message board For like minded folks to have an uninterrupted conversation . Separately   someone can create an open for all newbie thread or a long term hold thread etc. In general this is a message board on the internet and I can not understand why anyone would believe anything they read on the internet and take action without doing their own research. And if they get burned why blame anyone other than themselves and why keep coming back to the source of your angst. 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@fred495 wrote:

@VA-Tech wrote: Having a contrarian voice in the room is not a crime.

 

But, beating a dead horse may be a crime.

You may not realize it, but your obsession with FD and the repetitive nature of your posts is actually quite tiresome.

Here is a suggestion, if you are so concerned about forum readers who do not "bring the same background and knowledge to the table", why don't you consider doing something positive, like starting a bond thread for "the less knowledgeable" among us, for example? Wouldn't that be a more productive use of your time?

Fred



Excellent suggestion @fred495 , I have started threads on more simple higher quality, less risky bond funds. Problem is there is not near the variety and it takes less investigation to become familiar with these bond funds.

FD provides an interesting read,  however, many typical bond investors are not looking for a higher rick for higher yield and prefer to risk on the equity side for greater growth.

Nevertheless,  I think FDs thread is worth reading and those who have a problem with the thread would be better served by ignoring it for the benefit of themselves and others. 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I am now 50% invested across all accounts with investments in BDKAX, ARBIX, and SEMMX in that order based on size. I also have an HSA with Fidelity that holds IOFIX. Any spike in VIX of 35+ , steep drop in Junk Bonds, and/or 2 day crash in market I am out of the market again. I continue to track NHMRX which seems to have stabilized and doing best of the HY Muni as of late. Still a bit early to make an entry investment in HY Muni. I am hoping for an opportunity to re invest in HY Muni as trend becomes more clear/sustainable in next week(s)

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Sortatino2,  See below my top funds sorted by one month.  They are all part of my Multi/MBS list. All the funds are specializing in securitized except HOBIX.  I don't follow M* category.

 Total ReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Week1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
IOFIX1.635.0310.92-15.17-13.050.4123.65Below AverageHigh
DPFNX0.782.214.6-1.37-0.442.3510.11Below AverageAbove Average
BDKAX0.442.186.32-31.68-30.66-8.6631.87LowHigh
HOBIX0.532.076.490.562.383.7110.45HighHigh
SEMMX0.531.694.89-12.32-11.42-1.1213.69Below AverageHigh
EIXIX0.441.253.14.496.66------------
PIMIX0.081.193.711.614.273.85.59Above AverageBelow Average
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