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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@PN wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:

Dt ...  I don't plan to post here.  But when I inadvertently see FD in his infamous style re-write history implying it was "skeptics" (I call them alternative investing stylists) who cast the first stone, that is just not accurate and I will defend myself and the other alternate investors.  He needs to look into a mirror to see who cast the first stone. 


Who cast the first stone? Is that the issue?


Sounds like the Hatfields and the McCoys feud has no end in sight.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@PaulR888 wrote:

Without an ignore button, I need to work on mentally tuning out any FD posts.  

 

And with an ignore button you could mentally tune out FD's posts?

Sorry, @PaulR888, but that sounds like a rather lame excuse.

You must have noticed by now that FD's posts are marked with big fat blue letters of his initials, how can you miss them? Why don't you really, really try to "work on mentally tuning out any FD posts", and stop this tiresome charade that's polluting this thread? An otherwise very informative thread started by FD, by the way.

Good luck,

Fred

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@fred495 wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:

Without an ignore button, I need to work on mentally tuning out any FD posts.  

 

And with an ignore button you could mentally tune out FD's posts?

Sorry, @PaulR888, but that sounds like a rather lame excuse.

You must have noticed by now that FD's posts are marked with big fat blue letters of his initials, how can you miss them? Why don't you really, really try to "work on mentally tuning out any FD posts", and stop this tiresome charade that's polluting this thread? An otherwise very informative thread started by FD, by the way.

Good luck,

Fred


It's gotta be back-breaking carrying FD's "water" all the time. The fantasy of perpetual well-timed OEF bond trades based on momentum sounds like t a modernized version of the "The Emperor's New Clothes". 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes

Some "see" clothes.

P.S. There are no clothes.

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Contributor ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Anitya wrote:

I called MetWest about MWFSX expense ratio.   The Rep tried to talk in vague assurances that the ER will not change and that the 9.2% mentioned in prospectus is for regulatory purposes only.  After talking to his boss he said there is no communication re what the ER is likely to be in August.   As to gross vs net ER, he said it is accurate to state they are the same, notwithstanding the prospectus has different numbers - no point trying to educate him and I did not pursue.

Personally, I think it is a high probability that the claw back of waived expense is not likely to occur.  My reasoning is,

  • it would be bad publicity for the fund family
  • substantial amount of AUM is the managers own money and the claw back would apply to their money as well
  • managers will not be able to recoup all the claw back applied to their own money because TCW is owned by a third party company

I am taking the risk on claw back based on the above.

 


Just an FYI and disclosure:  Last week we talked about other items about this fund that do not add up.   MWFSX is also overweight securitized + ABS.   For the sake of the gallery, I am rolling IOFIX into MWFSX with a slight lag; so actually going to diversification but different risk.   The point that is in favor of the fund is the heavy ownership by the managers.  

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@VA-Tech wrote:

@fred495 wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:

Without an ignore button, I need to work on mentally tuning out any FD posts.  

 

And with an ignore button you could mentally tune out FD's posts?

Sorry, @PaulR888, but that sounds like a rather lame excuse.

You must have noticed by now that FD's posts are marked with big fat blue letters of his initials, how can you miss them? Why don't you really, really try to "work on mentally tuning out any FD posts", and stop this tiresome charade that's polluting this thread? An otherwise very informative thread started by FD, by the way.

Good luck,

Fred


It's gotta be back-breaking carrying FD's "water" all the time. The fantasy of perpetual well-timed OEF bond trades based on momentum sounds like t a modernized version of the "The Emperor's New Clothes". 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes

Some "see" clothes.

P.S. There are no clothes.


@VA-Tech ad hominem attacks against fellow community members are neither necessary nor welcome here. Please stay out of the discussion if you aren't going to contribute anything worthwhile.

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Explorer ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@RyanM wrote:

@VA-Tech wrote:

@fred495 wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:

Without an ignore button, I need to work on mentally tuning out any FD posts.  

 

And with an ignore button you could mentally tune out FD's posts?

Sorry, @PaulR888, but that sounds like a rather lame excuse.

You must have noticed by now that FD's posts are marked with big fat blue letters of his initials, how can you miss them? Why don't you really, really try to "work on mentally tuning out any FD posts", and stop this tiresome charade that's polluting this thread? An otherwise very informative thread started by FD, by the way.

Good luck,

Fred


It's gotta be back-breaking carrying FD's "water" all the time. The fantasy of perpetual well-timed OEF bond trades based on momentum sounds like t a modernized version of the "The Emperor's New Clothes". 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes

Some "see" clothes.

P.S. There are no clothes.


@VA-Tech ad hominem attacks against fellow community members are neither necessary nor welcome here. Please stay out of the discussion if you aren't going to contribute anything worthwhile.


Ryan, please lighten up.  Many more than you realize share the sentiments expressed by VA-Tech.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

(link)  from Raymond James: Municipal Bond Investor Weekly (July 6, 2020)

The changes in the first six months of 2020 could not have been more profound or volatile. Even seasoned investors
have been shocked. Some retail clients saw the next Great Depression unfolding as the Fed completely reversed course
and sent Fed Funds to the zero lower bound. In March, the entire yield curve reached unprecedented levels, with all rates under 1.00%. Talk about a wild ride!

What are the implications for municipal investors? Over the past 12 months, the 10 year Treasury has moved from 2.00% to just 0.70%: however, you want to measure that, a 65% decline, a 130 basis point move, it’s been dramatic. In muni land, the decline has been steep, but not quite as dramatic: 10 year AAA muni rates have been cut in half, from ~1.60% down to ~0.85%, but now munis yields consistently exceed the yield on Treasuries, when six months ago the 10 year muni yield was only 70% of the 10 year Treasury yield. Black swans have a way of disrupting things. We don’t see things changing anytime soon. As the Fed provides massive amounts of liquidity and credit support to the markets, it is highly unlikely the Fed Funds are moving higher. This is why, for muni investors with an income-focused, longer term, buy monitor-hold perspective, we continue recommending portfolio strategies buying longer-dated bonds to capture significantly higher yields in a yield-starved environment, while managing to a duration target of 6 – 8 as a way of limiting portfolio volatility.

=============

(link) from Alpha Gen Capita

The V-shaped recovery is now firmly what the market is trading on, as well as lingering supply issues.

Tax-exempt supply has been noticeably low as the corporate investment grade market, assisted by federal facilities, has prompted many municipal issuers to issue taxable bonds instead of tax-exempt — both for new money and advance and current refundings. Taxable issuance at 35% of total municipal issuance year-to-date has created scarcity in the tax-exempt space.

What about high yield munis?

Many investors are focusing on quality, as I am. High-yield munis have been really hit hard as investors anticipate seeing a wave of muni defaults. That certainly is a possibility but looking less likely to me.

  • Over an eight-week period beginning in early March, high-yield municipal bond funds saw record outflows, totaling nearly $15 billion and over 10% of the entire high yield muni fund complex.
  • There has been negative news flow on high profile municipal projects as the economic impact of COVID-19 threatens more speculative issues.
  • The extended period of outflows, negative news flow and related selling has driven yields higher for high-yield munis, a stark contrast from investment grade munis with short-term AAA munis currently experiencing record low yields.
  • The result is spreads on high-yield munis are at the highest level seen relative to Treasuries, Investment Grade munis, and high-yield corporates (after-tax) in many years.

=============

Disclaimer: I have more than 50% of my portfolio in HY Munis since early May.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Spreads between IG/HY munis may be at a record high, but if states postpone reopening plans or resume shutdowns because they cannot control the pandemic, their treasuries will dry up.

These analyses appear rather conventional when circumstances are very unconventional.

I never sold any HY so I am still quite heavily invested, but my last additions to munis were IT/LT investment grade, and my next addition will probably be as well. With tax rates likely to rise in the future, munis should have some tailwinds.

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Explorer ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Um....  last I checked Doc this still is the USA.  Us "troublemakers" as you deem us have the same right to be here as you and FD.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FredMD wrote:

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.


It's a tradition on investment discussion forums to discuss, debate, and question. We ask critical questions and hate BS.

Smart, honest, and candid posters like Capecod, JRinNY, and Chamois are much appreciated. These individuals know their stuff, are transparent, and are honest.

These three contributors are gone. One died and two departed on their own. They are missed. 

N.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@norbertc wrote:

@FredMD wrote:

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.


It's a tradition on investment discussion forums to discuss, debate, and question. We ask critical questions and hate BS.

Smart, honest, and candid posters like Capecod, JRinNY, and Chamois are much appreciated. These individuals know their stuff, are transparent, and are honest.

These three contributors are gone. One died and two departed on their own. They are missed. 

N.


Norbert, thank you again for stopping by and offering great analysis/opinion on the subject of this thread :-)

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

@FredMD wrote:

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.


It's a tradition on investment discussion forums to discuss, debate, and question. We ask critical questions and hate BS.

Smart, honest, and candid posters like Capecod, JRinNY, and Chamois are much appreciated. These individuals know their stuff, are transparent, and are honest.

These three contributors are gone. One died and two departed on their own. They are missed. 

N.


Norbert, thank you again for stopping by and offering great analysis/opinion on the subject of this thread :-)


No sweat.  Just thought I'd offer an explanation to FredMD, who raised the subject.  Honesty is always best.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@norbertc wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

@FredMD wrote:

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.


It's a tradition on investment discussion forums to discuss, debate, and question. We ask critical questions and hate BS.

Smart, honest, and candid posters like Capecod, JRinNY, and Chamois are much appreciated. These individuals know their stuff, are transparent, and are honest.

These three contributors are gone. One died and two departed on their own. They are missed. 

N.


Norbert, thank you again for stopping by and offering great analysis/opinion on the subject of this thread :-)


No sweat.  Just thought I'd offer an explanation to FredMD, who raised the subject.  Honesty is always best.



@norbertc wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

@FredMD wrote:

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.


It's a tradition on investment discussion forums to discuss, debate, and question. We ask critical questions and hate BS.

Smart, honest, and candid posters like Capecod, JRinNY, and Chamois are much appreciated. These individuals know their stuff, are transparent, and are honest.

These three contributors are gone. One died and two departed on their own. They are missed. 

N.


Norbert, thank you again for stopping by and offering great analysis/opinion on the subject of this thread :-)


No sweat.  Just thought I'd offer an explanation to FredMD, who raised the subject.  Honesty is always best.



@norbertc wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

@FredMD wrote:

I have been reading FD's postings for more than 10 years now. I like his investing style and I have gained a lot of benefits from his postings. The M* forums are to serve people with different investing skills, styles, and interests. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of readers who do not agree with FD's views. In which case why don't they simply skip FD's posting and move on? Why do these people need to incite petty arguments? There is no justification for vicious personal attack in M* forum. I wish Ryan had been quicker in kicking those trouble makers out of M*.


It's a tradition on investment discussion forums to discuss, debate, and question. We ask critical questions and hate BS.

Smart, honest, and candid posters like Capecod, JRinNY, and Chamois are much appreciated. These individuals know their stuff, are transparent, and are honest.

These three contributors are gone. One died and two departed on their own. They are missed. 

N.


Norbert, thank you again for stopping by and offering great analysis/opinion on the subject of this thread :-)


No sweat.  Just thought I'd offer an explanation to FredMD, who raised the subject.  Honesty is always best.


The issue is that good healthy debate and discussion gets sidetracked with rather insulting terms like "Yugo Racing", debates using very insulting language against not only FD but other participants on the thread (such as the VA-Tech post that led to a reprimand by M*Ryan), and a series of never ending school yard arguments about who started it first and who threw the first stone.  It is FDs thread, and if you don't like him or his way of investing, the simple action for those detractors, is just to not read the thread and to stop posting on the thread, not continue a seemingly never ending debate about investing styles. I don't invest the same way as FD, but I find value in the funds presented on this thread, so I can do my own due diligence to see if the fund might fit "my" investing criteria.  For example, I have followed all of the recent debate about ANBEX, and I actually owned it for a short period, but then I decided it did not fit my investing criteria, and I moved on to other funds.  I think ANBEX is a fine fund, that seems to be heavily promoted by FD, but I currently am interested in other bond oefs for my particular portfolio needs and investing style.  I don't have any need to get into the debate about ANBEX, and I don't care if others use it or not.

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@PaulR888 wrote:

Um....  last I checked Doc this still is the USA.  Us "troublemakers" as you deem us have the same right to be here as you and FD.  


M* is a business and like Costco can enforce rules, regulations, and deny service to violators. Of course, one can behave like the middle aged "Karen" in a WA State Costco, refusing to wear the mask hanging from one of her ears, sit down on the floor in a temper tantrum, shouting this is a free country.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:

I have followed all of the recent debate about ANBEX, and I actually owned it for a short period, but then I decided it did not fit my investing criteria, and I moved on to other funds.  I think ANBEX is a fine fund, that seems to be heavily promoted by FD, but I currently am interested in other bond oefs for my particular portfolio needs and investing style.  I don't have any need to get into the debate about ANBEX, and I don't care if others use it or not.

Just to clarify since I seem to have started all this, my point is not about AMBEX per se, or differing methodologies for investing.  It's only about data, charts, and analysis.  I went into this casually, didn't cross all my T's and dot all my I's, and flubbed a couple times as a result of being TOO casual.  Despite that, I've tried to make a point about interpreting charts; which I HOPE has come across despite my blunders on specifics along the way.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@jmrdnc wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:

Um....  last I checked Doc this still is the USA.  Us "troublemakers" as you deem us have the same right to be here as you and FD.  


M* is a business and like Costco can enforce rules, regulations, and deny service to violators. Of course, one can behave like the middle aged "Karen" in a WA State Costco, refusing to wear the mask hanging from one of her ears, sit down on the floor in a temper tantrum, shouting this is a free country.


You totally missed my point jmr. 

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Contributor ○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Sure, everyone has the right to post here. Can we stay on topic? Helpful guideline for doing so, is people are not the topic. Peoples investing style is not the topic, nor is their choices of what they invest in. 

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Contributor ○○

Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

The old M* forums did not have this level rancor.   The old forums had an occasional food fight or sniper fire but it got cleaned up pretty quickly.  I am attributing the current level of rancor to M* deliberately wanting it by taking away the Ignore button and instituting a Kudos button.  No human social system is this lopsided.  I think M* is watching the behavior on these forums for entertainment.  It must be part of the M* employee bonus system to allow certain number of hours of reading posts on the forum.

M* can disprove me by instituting a "Disapprove" button to go along with the "Kudos" button.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@Anitya wrote:

The old M* forums did not have this level rancor.   The old forums had an occasional food fight or sniper fire but it got cleaned up pretty quickly.  I am attributing the current level of rancor to M* deliberately wanting it by taking away the Ignore button and instituting a Kudos button.  No human social system is this lopsided.  I think M* is watching the behavior on these forums for entertainment.  It must be part of the M* employee bonus system to allow certain number of hours of reading posts on the forum.

M* can disprove me by instituting a "Disapprove" button to go along with the "Kudos" button.


@Anitya I can assure you that is the last thing Morningstar wants. The ignore functionality was not intentionally taken away; it was a feature on the previous platform and is not available on the current platform, or I would have enabled it a long time ago.

I hesitate to lock a thread that has been going since January, but I will do so if you all cannot stay on topic and refrain from attacking each other personally. I appreciate your consideration.

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