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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I don't post my trades in real-time anywhere - it isn't anybody's business. Nor do I post past performance anywhere.

I do post ad-hoc changes if they are relevant to the topic of the thread.

So, as noted by DT, during the March bond crash, I consolidated all MS at Schwab into one MS and that was the institutional MS JMSIX.

I have also decided that going forward, I will use core-plus [or, multi-lite] more than MS; before March, I didn't have much  core-plus. So, now that MS have rebounded a lot, I have made related changes. At Schwab, most of the JMSIX money went into muni core-plus [not a formal M* category but I have defined it before] in taxable account and core-plus in tax-deferred account. I also made corresponding adjustments in my Fido 403b [i.e. most MS to core-plus].

Another change that I have posted on elsewhere is relying on ultra-ST and ST bond funds for liquidity instead of m-mkt funds/accounts and ST CDs [ZIRP has made them bad]. I am willing to accept their small volatility in exchange for immediate access [no frequent trading restrictions at Vanguard; none for FCONX at Fido; some for SWSBX at Schwab].

 

YBB
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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

 


@FD1001 wrote:

@BigTom wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

I'm sure you didn't look at it seriously,

Why do I need to post anything per your request? you have been posting untrue information about me for years.

BTW, can you please stay out of this thread unless you have specific information and/or analysis about bond funds.


@RyanM are you going to allow this attack on my character to stand? What FD states is simply not true. 

@FD1001 , First of all, how would you know how much research I did on the fund? You have no idea. As for my analysis of the fund, I provided my opinion based on its portfolio composition and its small AUM. It’s a risky fund.

Just because you don’t agree with my opinion does not give you the right to suppress it.

Btw. Remember JMSIX? When you were “promoting” it, I mentioned, it too was a risky fund that held collateralized car loans and soon after, it tanked 17% within a few weeks...

 


For years you claim that I lie about my portfolio performance, I will not retire because I don't have money...and I did.

You claimed I didn't have stocks in 2009 and I proved I have a high % in stocks.

Just last week you posted on another site that I used to be a fund manager which is a lie, it was flagged and removed and I believe you got a warning.

Your name on M* used to be GatorByter so why did you change your name?

and now you posted "@RyanM are you going to allow this attack on my character to stand? What FD states is simply not true"  what a joke.


@FD1001 you’re out of line and BigTom is not Gatorbyter. 

Is it possible someone of your supreme intelligence could discuss investing without insulting your fellow members? Take 48 hours off. 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:


For years you claim that I lie about my portfolio performance, I will not retire because I don't have money...and I did.

You claimed I didn't have stocks in 2009 and I proved I have a high % in stocks.

Just last week you posted on another site that I used to be a fund manager which is a lie, it was flagged and removed and I believe you got a warning.

Your name on M* used to be GatorByter so why did you change your name?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

@FD1001, you obviously have me confused with another poster who must have been a critic of your posts.
I have no idea who GatorByter is and I definitely am not him.
You will also see that I have been posting on this board for a long time so your accusation of me 'changing' my posting name is incorrect. Ask @RyanM  to look up that poster's IP address and my IP address and you will see we are not the same person. 

I expect @RyanM  to remove the following comments because they have nothing to do about me and any further comments that attack my character or who I am or what I post will be deleted.  

For years you claim that I lie about my portfolio performance, I will not retire because I don't have money...and I did. 

You claimed I didn't have stocks in 2009 and I proved I have a high % in stocks.

Just last week you posted on another site that I used to be a fund manager which is a lie, it flagged and removed and I believe you got a warning.

 

As for the 'fund manager' comment, it was removed from MFO because it was considered off topic not because it was a 'lie'. So stop manipulating the facts.  

On that thread, you stated you weren't a 'fund manager' but a registered Financial Advisor. 
The point of my comment was to say you work 'in the industry' which is a true statement. 
You were registered in the state of Georgia.  

 

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@norbertc wrote:

@chang wrote:

@fred495 Well done to you. I’m just not skilled enough to trade in and out of bond funds.


I don't know how these guys manage to do it. There's so much noise and randomness involved in short-term FI OEF performance, that it seems impossible to consistently predict the winners. 

CEFs are another story. 

I wish that they'd run a "Yugo Racing Challenge" and post trades in real time. Then I could maybe learn how to do it.

N.


 

No problema, Norbert.

May I suggest the perfect vehicle for you to "learn how to do it", the 2020 Challenge. I think you know the rules since I seem to recall that you were also a participant in previous years.

But, just to refresh your memory, here are the rules of the game:

"At the start of the contest each participant is given ( by Boris ) $1,000,000.00 to invest wisely. Participants can join in at any time. Post your starting portfolio and post all buys and sells timely. At the end of each month I will ask all participants to post their current portfolio and balance so others in the group may learn from your progress (or lack there of)."

I think it's generally been agreed upon that to "post all buys and sells timely", means within 24 hours. Would that not meet your requirement to "post trades in real time"?

So, why don't you consider joining the contest again, apparently you "can join in at any time". But check it out with @RichinKansas who runs the 2020 Challenge. I am sure your investment acumen and financial insights would be much appreciated by some of the contestants.

But, keep in mind that this Challenge is not necessarily a "Yugo Racing Challenge", but also a learning experience, at least for me and some of the other contestants.

Here, for example, is my current conservative "Retirement Portfolio" with a YTD total return of 5.01%, as of 6/30:

ANBEX                $425,068.06              40.5%

SCCIX                   412,778.88               39.3

TSIIX                     212,260.42               20.2

Total                $1,050,107.36             100.0%

By the way, the monthly Bond Fund Analysis postings by the much maligned FD gave me the impetus to check out ANBEX, and dt made me aware of the excellent come back performance of TSIIX.

As I said, I am using the Challenge as a learning vehicle to test drive, not Yugo race, certain promising funds with excellent risk/reward profiles, some referenced and discussed by posters I greatly respect, e.g., FD and dt, before including them in my personal portfolio. Both posters have made me money. That's certainly more than I can say about a number of other posters who seem to be getting their rocks off engaging in a never ending crusade of very nasty and very tiresome ad hominem attacks.

See you soon as a new Challenge participant, maybe?

Fred

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:


 The great Chang, who Racqueteer gives some very positive comments regarding his bond fund analysis skills,


Wasn't me; you're misremembering.  I don't believe I've ever made any comment about Chang's choices with the possible exceptions of mentioning his tendency for having a longer-term time horizon and contrarian pov.  I actually think that my only comment about bond fund analysis was in relation to you and FD; CEFs being a separate consideration.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Hi Big Tom .....  I sympathize as I too have been stalked and falsely accused by same to which I refer to my Latin, Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus, and as such same has zero credibility.

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:


I am growing very weary of these negative comments, as if all the "stoking (and stroking)" was with one poster, who just reports fund data. [...]   

The only difference in these several posters, (and many others who are not mentioned), and with FD, is that he has chosen to continue monthly bond oef fund discussions with his long term thread.  If you do not find his data useful, then quit reading it.  He constantly discusses his investing style, based on shorter term momentum data, but he always puts in a disclaimer to not invest like he does, [...]

 


As always, dt, well said.

But, unfortunately, certain posters just keep on repeating and repeating their boring and quite tiresome personal attacks on FD. What a total waste of time and energy.

Reminds me of the old saying, "Don't try to teach a pig to sing, it frustrates you and irritates the pig".

Fred

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@fred495 wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

@chang wrote:

@fred495 Well done to you. I’m just not skilled enough to trade in and out of bond funds.


I don't know how these guys manage to do it. There's so much noise and randomness involved in short-term FI OEF performance, that it seems impossible to consistently predict the winners. 

CEFs are another story. 

I wish that they'd run a "Yugo Racing Challenge" and post trades in real time. Then I could maybe learn how to do it.

N.


 

No problema, Norbert.

May I suggest the perfect vehicle for you to "learn how to do it", the 2020 Challenge. I think you know the rules since I seem to recall that you were also a participant in previous years.

But, just to refresh your memory, here are the rules of the game:

"At the start of the contest each participant is given ( by Boris ) $1,000,000.00 to invest wisely. Participants can join in at any time. Post your starting portfolio and post all buys and sells timely. At the end of each month I will ask all participants to post their current portfolio and balance so others in the group may learn from your progress (or lack there of)."

I think it's generally been agreed upon that to "post all buys and sells timely", means within 24 hours. Would that not meet your requirement to "post trades in real time"?

So, why don't you consider joining the contest again, apparently you "can join in at any time". But check it out with @RichinKansas who runs the 2020 Challenge. I am sure your investment acumen and financial insights would be much appreciated by some of the contestants.

But, keep in mind that this Challenge is not necessarily a "Yugo Racing Challenge", but also a learning experience, at least for me and some of the other contestants.

Here, for example, is my current conservative "Retirement Portfolio" with a YTD total return of 5.01%, as of 6/30:

ANBEX                $425,068.06              40.5%

SCCIX                   412,778.88               39.3

TSIIX                     212,260.42               20.2

Total                $1,050,107.36             100.0%

By the way, the monthly Bond Fund Analysis postings by the much maligned FD gave me the impetus to check out ANBEX, and dt made me aware of the excellent come back performance of TSIIX.

As I said, I am using the Challenge as a learning vehicle to test drive, not Yugo race, certain promising funds with excellent risk/reward profiles, some referenced and discussed by posters I greatly respect, e.g., FD and dt, before including them in my personal portfolio. Both posters have made me money. That's certainly more than I can say about a number of other posters who seem to be getting their rocks off engaging in a never ending crusade of very nasty and very tiresome ad hominem attacks.

See you soon as a new Challenge participant, maybe?

Fred

 


Thanks, but I've been away from my office since four months, am focused on my holiday home project, and can't seriously participate in an online investment challenge this year.

I also think that FD has made useful contributions on the mutual fund front. But recently, when I voiced concerns about his reliance on short-term stats to predict future performance of fixed income OEFs, he resorted to personal insults. Something is wrong. He has lost his sense of humor. I think he's maybe taking this investing stuff too seriously.

N.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@racqueteer wrote:

@dtconroe wrote:


 The great Chang, who Racqueteer gives some very positive comments regarding his bond fund analysis skills,


Wasn't me; you're misremembering.  I don't believe I've ever made any comment about Chang's choices with the possible exceptions of mentioning his tendency for having a longer-term time horizon and contrarian pov.  I actually think that my only comment about bond fund analysis was in relation to you and FD; CEFs being a separate consideration.


racqueteer
Frequent Contributor
"Analysis - My thoughts and thanks

Here, as in most discussions, there is a disconnect between (basically) three types of investor:  There are the efficient market folks who buy the market (index) and let it ride.  Then there is the group who, like @chang , look for the best investment in any given area over a long time frame (but not infinite like the first group).  Imo, like @chang's, rolling returns are best for identifying THOSE."

Racq, I was alluding to this statement by you on "your" thread, in which you were complimenting Chang for his investment style, and using rolling returns "for identifying THOSE".  In 2019 and during the March crash in 2020, Chang held and praised SEMMX as a personal choice fund to hold for much of his cash. He and I, and many other posters, sold it after the March crash, after seeing pandemic impact on it.  Posters want to criticize FD because he periodically held and praised SEMMX, but there were many many other posters, including Chang and me, who also had our reasons for selecting and owing SEMMX.  FD seems to be the object of many posters criticism for his positive comments about SEMMX, but there were many other prominent posters who also were praising SEMMX, and owning SEMMX, when the March crash began, and each of us learned alot about SEMMX as a result of pandemic crash impact.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis




@racqueteer wrote:

@dtconroe wrote:


 The great Chang, who Racqueteer gives some very positive comments regarding his bond fund analysis skills,


Wasn't me; you're misremembering.  I don't believe I've ever made any comment about Chang's choices with the possible exceptions of mentioning his tendency for having a longer-term time horizon and contrarian pov.  I actually think that my only comment about bond fund analysis was in relation to you and FD; CEFs being a separate consideration.


 


@dtconroe , perhaps you remember this post by Norbert to Racq that positively mentioned Chang's "clear-headed analysis of various funds":

Norbert Photo.png
norbertc
Frequent Contributor
Re: Analysis - My thoughts and thanks

 

Racq,

[...]

Chang has also helped me make money with his disciplined "buy low" habit and clear-headed analysis of various funds.

[...]

Cheers,

N.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@dtconroe wrote:

@racqueteer wrote:

@dtconroe wrote:


 The great Chang, who Racqueteer gives some very positive comments regarding his bond fund analysis skills,


Wasn't me; you're misremembering.  I don't believe I've ever made any comment about Chang's choices with the possible exceptions of mentioning his tendency for having a longer-term time horizon and contrarian pov.  I actually think that my only comment about bond fund analysis was in relation to you and FD; CEFs being a separate consideration.


racqueteer
Frequent Contributor
"Analysis - My thoughts and thanks

Here, as in most discussions, there is a disconnect between (basically) three types of investor:  There are the efficient market folks who buy the market (index) and let it ride.  Then there is the group who, like @chang , look for the best investment in any given area over a long time frame (but not infinite like the first group).  Imo, like @chang's, rolling returns are best for identifying THOSE."

Racq, I was alluding to this statement by you on "your" thread, in which you were complimenting Chang for his investment style, and using rolling returns "for identifying THOSE".  In 2019 and during the March crash in 2020, Chang held and praised SEMMX as a personal choice fund to hold for much of his cash. He and I, and many other posters, sold it after the March crash, after seeing pandemic impact on it.  Posters want to criticize FD because he periodically held and praised SEMMX, but there were many many other posters, including Chang and me, who also had our reasons for selecting and owing SEMMX.  FD seems to be the object of many posters criticism for his positive comments about SEMMX, but there were many other prominent posters who also were praising SEMMX, and owning SEMMX, when the March crash began, and each of us learned alot about SEMMX as a result of pandemic crash impact.


I don't mean to be argumentative, DT, but your quote from me above is that there is a class of investor who looks "for the best investment in any given area over a long time frame".  No specific mention of "bonds" at all.  Also, I wasn't "praising" anyone for anything; I was giving an example of each of the three approaches.  I personally think that rolling returns are the best way to look for performance in a given category for that specific approach.  It happens that Chang has indicated the same thing, and is the only example of that I know of.  He kind of gets mentioned by default.  It just seems to me that you're reading a LOT into my post that wasn't actually there.  I see how you got there from what I wrote, but it took a little bit of leaning and squinting through one eye for you to DO it!  Anyway, I suspect that Chang might not have been looking at rolling returns over the long haul on that occasion.  IAE, I'm unlikely to actually PRAISE some move or other unconditionally.  I'm FAR more likely to indicate that I understand the reasoning behind such and such a choice given assumptions x, y, and z.  All good...

 

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@fred495 wrote:

@dtconroe wrote:


I am growing very weary of these negative comments, as if all the "stoking (and stroking)" was with one poster, who just reports fund data. [...]   

The only difference in these several posters, (and many others who are not mentioned), and with FD, is that he has chosen to continue monthly bond oef fund discussions with his long term thread.  If you do not find his data useful, then quit reading it.  He constantly discusses his investing style, based on shorter term momentum data, but he always puts in a disclaimer to not invest like he does, [...]

 


As always, dt, well said.

But, unfortunately, certain posters just keep on repeating and repeating their boring and quite tiresome personal attacks on FD. What a total waste of time and energy.

Reminds me of the old saying, "Don't try to teach a pig to sing, it frustrates you and irritates the pig".

Fred


Paul:  I agree with your quote 100% Fred.  Although I have a different interpretation and application than you.  

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I had no idea what a large following I have! Especially among bond traders. "The Great..."?... please, you're embarrassing me.

Ryan deleted one of your attacks last week, dt, if you recall. I would have taken that as a gentle suggestion to find more productive things to do than harass posters on an internet discussion forum.

SEMMX: Not the biggest mistake I ever made, but definitely in the Top 10.

Quick digression: in my three careers (1. Naval officer/nuclear engineer, 2. mathematician/educator, 3. Senior VP for a major Wall Street financial firm) I have taught, trained, developed and mentored dozens of people. I always found that dissecting my mistakes was at least as instructive, if not more so, than my successes. An old boss of mine said "Learn from other people's mistakes; you won't live long enough to make them all yourself." I have never had any problem disclosing and discussing my mistakes. Maybe because I don't have any serious ego or self-confidence complexes, but probably because it's just a really instructive thing to do. And part of discussing mistakes is listing the lessons learned.

I got duped by SEMMX for sure, and took my lumps. Lesson 1: don't trust black boxes. Lesson 2: don't buy expensive funds. Lesson 3: don't place a lot of confidence in slick web sites and flowery resumes. Lesson 4: do deeper due diligence. Lesson 5: beware of internet recommendations.

The March crash was in many ways a gift to me. Besides booking some losses to offset gains, I conducted an extensive portfolio overhaul, and bought more than I sold, so my portfolio came out of it simpler, cheaper and better. In 10 years I'll look back and say that March 2020 was the best thing that ever happened to my investments.

I don't listen to people who never admit a mistake and never make a loss. Why? If they're lying, well, 'nuff said. And if they're telling the truth, they're so brilliant that I could never hope to grasp whatever it is that they've figured out.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@racqueteer wrote:
Anyway, I suspect that Chang might not have been looking at rolling returns over the long haul on that occasion. 

Actually @racqueteer, SEMMX's pre-crash chart was steady as a rock, so that was a rare case where rolling returns and TRs gave pretty much the same information. As I said in my post a few minutes ago, I got SEMMX badly wrong due to my own self-delusion to the risks (Lesson 6: be on guard against self-delusion!) and lost about 4-5 times more than all the dividends I had previously earned.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@chang wrote:

I had no idea what a large following I have! Especially among bond traders. "The Great..."?... please, you're embarrassing me.

Ryan deleted one of your attacks last week, dt, if you recall. I would have taken that as a gentle suggestion to find more productive things to do than harass posters on an internet discussion forum.

SEMMX: Not the biggest mistake I ever made, but definitely in the Top 10.

Quick digression: in my three careers (1. Naval officer/nuclear engineer, 2. mathematician/educator, 3. Senior VP for a major Wall Street financial firm) I have taught, trained, developed and mentored dozens of people. I always found that dissecting my mistakes was at least as instructive, if not more so, than my successes. An old boss of mine said "Learn from other people's mistakes; you won't live long enough to make them all yourself." I have never had any problem disclosing and discussing my mistakes. Maybe because I don't have any serious ego or self-confidence complexes, but probably because it's just a really instructive thing to do. And part of discussing mistakes is listing the lessons learned.

I got duped by SEMMX for sure, and took my lumps. Lesson 1: don't trust black boxes. Lesson 2: don't buy expensive funds. Lesson 3: don't place a lot of confidence in slick web sites and flowery resumes. Lesson 4: do deeper due diligence. Lesson 5: beware of internet recommendations.

The March crash was in many ways a gift to me. Besides booking some losses to offset gains, I conducted an extensive portfolio overhaul, and bought more than I sold, so my portfolio came out of it simpler, cheaper and better. In 10 years I'll look back and say that March 2020 was the best thing that ever happened to my investments.

I don't listen to people who never admit a mistake and never make a loss. Why? If they're lying, well, 'nuff said. And if they're telling the truth, they're so brilliant that I could never hope to grasp whatever it is that they've figured out.


I made a simple comment that other well known posters, such as you and me, were investing in SEMMX prior to the pandemic crash, but we do not get criticized for that decision by other posters, as FD does.   As you have stated in a different post, you are not proud of that decision, and neither am I, but we don't get frequently criticized by others, as FD does.  If that somehow is considered inflammatory by you, then by all means go ahead an whine to RyanM again--I really don't care.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

When the discussion comes down to a tit for tat downward spiral, the more evolved individual will normally back off first.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

What we learned from March is an old saying in fixed income investing - diversification is more important in fixed income investing than in equity investing.  SEMMX and IOFIX are a sub-sector bet with no Govt guarantee - all the potential downside and very limited upside.  

Past SD is not necessarily a good measure of risk.  I think Dt had written well about the fallacy of using SD as a measure of risk and I shall let him re-post because I do not remember the exact words but I liked what I had said.

Finally, kids and adults do not change their behavior when you send conflicting messages.  You need to call horse manure when you see it and not just dole out praise all the time.  If you do not have the courage to call out bad behavior, then refrain from showering praise - you can do both with love but must do both - otherwise, it is a disservice to humanity.   In all the time I have been on these boards only one person used mocking tone making false claims several times towards me.  I reconciled myself that this person is like that with everybody - he just has a high need for self attention.  I think Holiday said it best  - just because you see an adult, you can not assume the child in there has grown up (paraphrasing). 

Considering their behavior on these boards in totality, I saw no reason to criticise Chang or Dt for their purchase of SEMMX. 

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

It would be great if those of you more than nominally investing in High Yield MUNIs share your thesis.   Coming out of March I felt more safe investing in investment grade corporate bonds than high yield MUNIs and even investment grade MUNIs.  McConnell's comments asking state and local Govts to declare bankruptcy just did not give me comfort.   My total MUNI allocation is a shamefully low 2% of PV.   It would be helpful to know your thesis.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Chang .... Nice portfolio self analysis of lessons learned from March crash.  Similarly, I learned that in a black swan event and the way my portfolio is constructed to give 4%+ yield and fully invested, I could experience a Maximum Drawdown of 40% of PV based on Merriman/DFA chart I use as a reference.  If I am not willing to take that hit, I better add some Intermediate Core bond fund and more high quality short term bonds.  March crash was a useful but painful stress test for my portfolio.

As an aside, I am in process of re-reading "Golf Is Not a Game of Perfect" by Dr. Bob Rotella.  Investing, like golf, Is Not a Game of Perfect either.  Even the professional wealth managers on CNBC are citing mistakes all the time.  A couple of Rotella's Rules on Golf with application to Investing:

Golf is a game played by human beings.  Therefore, it is a game of mistakes.  Successful golfers know how to respond to mistakes.  

Golfers need selective memories, retaining the memory of great shots and forgetting bad ones.  Selective memory helps a golfer grow in confidence as he gains experience and skill.  

On the course, golfers must have the confidence of a champion.  But off the course, champions must remember that they are not more important than anyone else.

Mahalo ....   Paul

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

YBB,

Thanks for mentioning FCONX. I am mostly in Fidelity.  30% of my portfolio is in FZDXX.  I see the 3M performance of FCONX is 1.77%. I will try to use it. 

Thanks for also mentioning the low-cost nature of having money in Vanguard and the capability to trade more frequently in Bond funds. I also have  a smaller Brokerage Vanguard account for IRA. 

SRT

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