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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

IOFIX has a presentation from 4/21/2020 (link).

I'm like the guys from Shark Tank if I want skin in the game I invest at least 10% of my money.


That presentation was already shared four weeks ago in the second post at the following thread.  I think that thread has good discussion if folks are now interested in the fund. 

https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Bond-Squad/IOFIX-Return-of-Capital/m-p/702807#M6686

Agree that Shark Tank guys Invest.

My desire to consider cashing in has entirely to do with unemployment numbers and their potential durability. 

Yogi,

My quibble was only with the usefulness of any commentary in the forwarding letter dated the same as the YE.  I see  managements providing useful commentary in a forwarding letter dates the letter on or near the date of filing the annual report and not as of the date of the financial statements.

A

 

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

The MBS/securitized funds in the Multisector category are having a nice momentum

The "safest" in the group is PTIAX but DHEAX is definitely catching my eye with its higher-rated bonds.
multi.png
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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@norbertc wrote:

Agreed. Two popular funds on the Yugo racing circuit were SEMMX and IOFIX. Both had demonstrated relatively good returns and low SDs. There was nothing in the technicals that was helpful to predict their heavy crash.

Yugo drivers, start your engines!

Add:

My overall stock holdings are presently less than 10% of my overall portfolio value, which is way more conservative then where I would normally be. DT and FD have discussed this at length. You need to fit advice into your own portfolio and risk tolerances.

This Covid thing has made a lot of us more ‘Traders’ than we would normally be. So with my current thinking that equities may be a little overvalued, I’m evaluating where to add risk. And I've started buying back into some of our old regulars.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Multisector       
 Total ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
SEMMX5.757.31-15.06-13.6-1.7113.65Below AverageHigh
IOFIX4.7120.97-22.8-18.15-1.2623.53AverageHigh
DHEAX3.915.18-2.82-1.482.035.93LowHigh
VCFAX3.316.38-7.81-6.141.39.29LowAbove Average
JMSIX3.058.79-3.56-0.253.738.29AverageAbove Average
HSNYX2.6112.473.466.785.447.45HighAverage
JMUTX2.359.55-2.850.673.638.24Above AverageAbove Average
TSIIX2.088.022.014.434.184.83HighBelow Average
EIXIX2.029.041.634.93------------
PIMIX1.816.48-1.680.693.325.52HighBelow Average
PUCZX1.7910.19-1.892.125.128.05HighAbove Average
PLSFX1.7511.58-0.373.464.48.26Above AverageAbove Average
PTIAX1.513.921.313.034.394.57HighLow
PDIIX1.57.19-0.881.984.466.5HighAbove Average
ADVNX0.466.664.538.084.644.09HighLow
NonTrad       
 Total ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
COSIX2.5610.05-1.041.633.257.1HighAverage
LASYX2.328.072.062.732.864.79AverageAverage
MWSIX1.837.34-0.141.662.875.3HighAverage
MNCPX1.815.971.273.472.753.37AverageLow
ESIIX1.6710.182.095.93.66.33Above AverageAverage
IISIX1.486.61-4.83-2.732.327.14Above AverageAverage
EGRIX1.4611.29-0.18.32.088.45Above AverageAbove Average
JSIAX1.454.781.162.932.613.7Above AverageBelow Average
PMZIX1.34.921.23.353.283.42HighLow
HY Muni       
 Total ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
NHMAX4.15.67-3.470.164.989.51HighHigh
ORNAX3.95.32-0.953.196.68.56HighHigh
GHYAX3.843.91-2.351.085.167.6Above AverageAbove Average
MMHAX3.583.39-1.21.54.476.76Above AverageAverage
AYMIX3.494.29-1.661.464.387.2Above AverageAverage
GWMEX3.394.790.183.345.137.81Above AverageAbove Average
VWALX2.483.070.293.174.745.52HighAbove Average
OPTAX2.313.652.486.256.696.35HighAverage
HighRatedBonds      
 Total ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
ANBEX1.436.314.5315.637.63.59HighAverage
SCCIX1.536.5212.8915.257.733.89HighAverage
SCPZX1.868.7912.6214.987.564.36HighAverage
GIBIX1.845.78.9610.055.652.97HighLow
SAMFX0.653.078.710.475.183.49Above AverageBelow Average
SBBIX1.086.047.39.995.523.77AverageAverage
JFLEX1.596.826.9210.315.494.05AverageAverage
 Total ReturnTotal ReturnReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnSDMorningstarMorningstar
Ticker1 Month3 MonthYTD12 Month3 Year3 YearReturnRisk
HYG+EM        
FNMIX2.5712.01-3.92-2.350.4811.35AverageAverage
PHIYX0.157.99-3.94-0.053.27.77Above AverageBelow Average
HYG-0.597.36-5.1-1.492.557.97AverageAverage
Corp        
PIGIX1.948.592.046.525.597.03Above AverageAbove Average
VCIT1.9310.15.489.366.376.42Above AverageAverage
Preferred        
PFINX1.710.74-4.453.07510.02HighAverage
Bank Loan       
EIFAX1.6110.75-6.68-3.91.4910.16HighHigh
STOCK+CEF       
FXAIX1.9820.53-3.097.4910.7116.95Above AverageAverage
PCI0.9412.83-22.98-13.53.7517.33AverageHigh

 

Observations:

Last month was another good month. Several bond funds made as much or more money than stocks.

Multi- another good month, several did over 2%.  MBS/Securitized are leading at 3+%.

HY Munis a great month with many funds on the list at 3-4%

Inter term – did well.  Most on the list at 1-1.5%.

Uncontrain/Nontrad-most with 1-1.5%.

HY+EM – HY didn’t do much but EM did nicely.

Corp – 1.9% is pretty good.

SP500-made 2% PCI 1%

===========================

My own portfolio

I started the month with GWMEX, smaller position in TSIIX and much smaller in EIXIX and…drumroll..I finished with the same funds.  WAIT, WHAT? several posters claim that I spend hours  :-)

Summer is here, stocks + bonds did very well in the last 3 months, I don’t want to add more risk but I see several funds that interest me for potentially better performance without elevating SD which both are not a guarantee.

Disclaimer: The above are just observations, you must do your own due diligence, I can trade any time.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Thanks, FD. I appreciate the time and effort you put into preparing your monthly Bond Fund Analysis. I find it extremely helpful in making my investment decisions, and hope you continue the good work despite the tiresome sniping that sometimes comes your way from the bleachers, aka the cheap seats.

Please keep up the good works, and thanks for making me some good money over the years. That's what this forum is supposed to be all about, at least I hope so.

Fred

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

Every few weeks or so I check out the fund screener on Fid's site and tonight I noticed MWFSX. It has an 18% yield which seems beyond high. Newer fund, seems mostly in mortgages, and faired the March sell off pretty well. 

PV link comparing it to a couple other MS funds I have held: 

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&...

Any thoughts?

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

This fund has been discussed in another place. Great managers, a newer fund from 11/2018, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date and great performance since inception + great volatility + very high yield. The fund has about 50% in MBS/securitized and about 55% in IG(investment grade) bonds, the duration about 2.7.

My numbers are from TCW(link) then Portfolio Composition.

You can see SD compared to PIMIX,JMUTX,PUCZX since inception, see PV(link)

In the big meltdown of 2020, peak to trough is was down about 6%.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@archer wrote:

Every few weeks or so I check out the fund screener on Fid's site and tonight I noticed MWFSX. It has an 18% yield which seems beyond high. Newer fund, seems mostly in mortgages, and faired the March sell off pretty well. 

PV link comparing it to a couple other MS funds I have held: 

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&...

Any thoughts?


Wait a minute! I thought you guys raced Yugos. MWFSX is more like a fighter jet!

08c_am2019_haveaskedforbigger13j00446_39_live.jpg

N.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

This fund has been discussed in another place. Great managers, a newer fund from 11/2018, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date and great performance since inception + great volatility + very high yield. The fund has about 50% in MBS/securitized and about 55% in IG(investment grade) bonds, the duration about 2.7.

My numbers are from TCW(link) then Portfolio Composition.

You can see SD compared to PIMIX,JMUTX,PUCZX since inception, see PV(link)

In the big meltdown of 2020, peak to trough is was down about 6%.


And you know what happens with small funds that hold illiquid assets.... 

An investor only has to look at what happened to Third Avenue Focus Credit fund to see the result.

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/third-avenue-to-liquidate-junk-bond-fund-that-bet-big-on-illiquid-as...

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@norbertc wrote:

@archer wrote:

Every few weeks or so I check out the fund screener on Fid's site and tonight I noticed MWFSX. It has an 18% yield which seems beyond high. Newer fund, seems mostly in mortgages, and faired the March sell off pretty well. 

PV link comparing it to a couple other MS funds I have held: 

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&...

Any thoughts?


Wait a minute! I thought you guys raced Yugos. MWFSX is more like a fighter jet!

08c_am2019_haveaskedforbigger13j00446_39_live.jpg

N.


And why I don't pay attention to the critics ;-)

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@BigTom wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

This fund has been discussed in another place. Great managers, a newer fund from 11/2018, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date and great performance since inception + great volatility + very high yield. The fund has about 50% in MBS/securitized and about 55% in IG(investment grade) bonds, the duration about 2.7.

My numbers are from TCW(link) then Portfolio Composition.

You can see SD compared to PIMIX,JMUTX,PUCZX since inception, see PV(link)

In the big meltdown of 2020, peak to trough is was down about 6%.


And you know what happens with small funds that hold illiquid assets.... 

An investor only has to look at what happened to Third Avenue Focus Credit fund to see the result.

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/third-avenue-to-liquidate-junk-bond-fund-that-bet-big-on-illiquid-as...


Your usual, bad things happened all the time in a meltdown.  Did you look at this fund holdings? are their bonds riskier than the category, Multi sector? how is this fund compares to Third Avenue Focus Credit? Do you know anything about the managers and their track record?

It's a guarantee we will never see any analysis just generics.  

Disclaimer: I don't own this fund NOW, I don't promote funds, it's everybody duty to do their own due diligence.

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@archer wrote:

Every few weeks or so I check out the fund screener on Fid's site and tonight I noticed MWFSX. It has an 18% yield which seems beyond high. Newer fund, seems mostly in mortgages, and faired the March sell off pretty well. 

PV link comparing it to a couple other MS funds I have held: 

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&...

Any thoughts?

 


Archer ...  Before venturing into this fund I would do further research and probably contact the bond house to get more info.  MWFSX is managed by same team (Rivelle and Landmann) as MWCIX/MWCRX.  MWFSX is income focus and MWCIX long term return focus.  I would want to be aware of the differences between these funds.  I would be interested in how the bond house sees this fund being integrated into client portfolios.  Why is the AUM growth so slow compared to MWCIX?  Does the bond house have any sample portfolios on how to position play this fund in one's portfolio.  Unlike FD, I do like communication with the bond house before I invest.  I do not just look at metrics in isolation and talk to myself.  

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@PaulR888 wrote:


Archer ...  Before venturing into this fund I would do further research and probably contact the bond house to get more info.  MWFSX is managed by same team (Rivelle and Landmann) as MWCIX/MWCRX.  MWFSX is income focus and MWCIX long term return focus.  I would want to be aware of the differences between these funds.  I would be interested in how the bond house sees this fund being integrated into client portfolios.  Why is the AUM growth so slow compared to MWCIX?  Does the bond house have any sample portfolios on how to position play this fund in one's portfolio.  Unlike FD, I do like communication with the bond house before I invest.  I do not just look at metrics in isolation and talk to myself.  


And the above conclusion is based on what?

example:

fd-001.PNG

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

@BigTom wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

This fund has been discussed in another place. Great managers, a newer fund from 11/2018, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date and great performance since inception + great volatility + very high yield. The fund has about 50% in MBS/securitized and about 55% in IG(investment grade) bonds, the duration about 2.7.

My numbers are from TCW(link) then Portfolio Composition.

You can see SD compared to PIMIX,JMUTX,PUCZX since inception, see PV(link)

In the big meltdown of 2020, peak to trough is was down about 6%.


And you know what happens with small funds that hold illiquid assets.... 

An investor only has to look at what happened to Third Avenue Focus Credit fund to see the result.

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/third-avenue-to-liquidate-junk-bond-fund-that-bet-big-on-illiquid-as...


Your usual, bad things happened all the time in a meltdown.  Did you look at this fund holdings? are their bonds riskier than the category, Multi sector? how is this fund compares to Third Avenue Focus Credit?

It's a guarantee we will never see any analysis just generics.

Disclaimer: I don't own this fund NOW, I don't promote funds, it's everybody duty to do their own due diligence.


Of course, I did my DD and decided it wasn't for me.

I prefer to get my juiced returns in a different manner. 

Hopefully you did your analysis beyond the SD numbers and if your comfortable with the risk then buy the fund.

The day you do buy it, please post here so we can accurately monitor your returns. 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

MWFSX - end of May - Below investment grade 23% and cash 23%.  TCW is a reputable fund company.  Performance is spectacular.  I do not understand a few things about this fund, including why their closed end fund, TSI, could not even achieve half the performance of MWFSX.  Is it just scale?

https://www.tcw.com/-/media/Downloads/Products/US-Funds/MetWest-Funds/Monthly-Characteristics/CHAR-F...

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis [MWFSX]


@Anitya wrote:

MWFSX - end of May - Below investment grade 23% and cash 23%.  TCW is a reputable fund company.  Performance is spectacular.  I do not understand a few things about this fund, including why their closed end fund, TSI, could not even achieve half the performance of MWFSX.  Is it just scale?

https://www.tcw.com/-/media/Downloads/Products/US-Funds/MetWest-Funds/Monthly-Characteristics/CHAR-F...


Lead manager and MatWest CIO Ted Rivelle runs MWTRX like chicken-little and he needs an outlet for his wildness with MWFSX. High % in non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, ABS and high cash but those alone don't explain its high yield. High 30-day SEC yield due to rather low avg price 85.71 [speculating in trashed junky bonds?]. Portfolio avg coupon is only 3.32%? Things don't add up.   http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=MWFSX&region=usa&culture=en-US

YBB
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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis

I’m feeling lucky so I just put in an order to buy a couple hundred dollars worth of MWFSX - MetWest Flexible Income Fund - M Share

Availability at Schwab:

I share: MWFEX - $3 million minimum

M share: MWFSX - No Load/No Fee $100 minimum

Gross ER = 9.20% ??? (per Schwab, but company website contradicts this)

Net ER = 0.82%

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis


@FD1001 wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:


Archer ...  Before venturing into this fund I would do further research and probably contact the bond house to get more info.  MWFSX is managed by same team (Rivelle and Landmann) as MWCIX/MWCRX.  MWFSX is income focus and MWCIX long term return focus.  I would want to be aware of the differences between these funds.  I would be interested in how the bond house sees this fund being integrated into client portfolios.  Why is the AUM growth so slow compared to MWCIX?  Does the bond house have any sample portfolios on how to position play this fund in one's portfolio.  Unlike FD, I do like communication with the bond house before I invest.  I do not just look at metrics in isolation and talk to myself.  


And the above conclusion is based on what?

example:

Paul:  Based on what you have stated previously in the Forum.  One example is I have said I listen to DoubleLine webcasts and what the PMs like Gundlach and Sherman say about their funds and you criticized that and said you don't listen to that.  Performance is only thing that counts to you and you can find all you need to know by your analysis of the Sharpe, Sortino etc. 


 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis [MWFSX]

MWFSX - I am guessing the high yield has to do with income from derivatives and not necessarily from low grade credit coupon.  With $14M in AUM, it is probably mostly the managers' money.  Another of their high yielding fund that did not gather much AUM is MWCSX, which underperforms VICSX coming out of the March lows but overall has good performance for a corporate fund.  

TCW family has nearly 60 funds but if you take out MWTRX, TGLMX, and a couple of legacy funds, one wonders whether these guys are not stretched thin with so many funds for such low aggregate AUM.  May be during their research for running MWTRX and TGLMX what ever special situations they come across, they stick them into funds like MWFSX and MWCSX.  The positive is a lot of the AUM in MWFSX belongs to the managers.

 

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Re: 2020 - bond funds analysis [MWFSX]

MWFSX - expense ratio - gross 9.2% net 0.82%; the difference is a waiver in place thru July 31, 2020.  (The ER is the same for MWCSX as well.)  Info from the prospectus.   The fund site contradicts this and says both gross and net ER are the same.   I would call the fund family to get an understanding of the net expense ratio past July 31st. 

Another thing that does not add up is the Treasury and Agency %ages in the fund vs credit quality table reflected in the fund card - link in my first post.  Showing being stretched thin!

May be somebody else could do the rest of the research.

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