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Valued Contributor

Re: YTD Performance Check


@ECEPROF wrote:

@UncleFutz wrote:

Real confidence has no bluster or bombast. It's not rooted in a desire to seem better than everyone else and it's not driven by a fear of appearing weak.”  Rob Brezsny

My portfolio value is down 12.8% YTD as of 3/20 close.

Best, UF


Amen to it. I have not figured out iy yet but I expect it to be around 30%. So, what?


Agree with both comments above.

There are no doubt different people here with different needs and different approaches and risk tolerances and time horizons. One of those is people who need income right now. Another would be people who do not need to tap their portfolios for the foreseeable future, or perhaps at all. I am in the latter group. The results of my moves at this time will not be evident until after the crisis has passed. Just like 2000 and 2008. Measuring short term is irrelevant to me. We can compare notes in two years, perhaps? Maybe sooner.

When things get sketchy some folks will hide in the cellar with a can of beans and a lantern. Some will don camo and adjust their night vision scopes. The former will get flatulence, scurvy and maybe carbon monoxide poisoning. The latter will get red meat, exercise and fresh air!

 

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Contributor ○○○

Re: YTD Performance Check

It's friendly chat or supposed to be. Except there are those that use this board as an ego booster. Paul is not one as about 99.9% of those here are.


@mikes425 wrote:

"....DO I hear...20%.? ... 20-20-20 now 20% going once ...going twice, ...now 22...22..22...do i hear...25?  25...25, now 27....now 27...27-27 27 do i hear 30?  ...30 now 30. 30 30.."

Yeah...could be soon...   

And So What? 

I mean, what do I DO with that information?


 

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Valued Contributor

Re: YTD Performance Check

Paul: FD ....   But you are the fund daddy, correct?  Why don't you respond to the funds you have liked in the past that I mentioned above?  And IOFIX is -31% YTD.  And you once liked that as a Bucket 1 bond fund?  OMG!!!!!!!!!!  You like to divert and deflect. 

========

FD....divert and deflect...well, that is what a good debater does :-)

What matters are actions.  I sold very close to the top.  Remember, I was lucky, I can't time markets, bluh, bluh but I made a great call and posted about it in several places, imagine how many "love" posts I would get if I was wrong.  I will brag about it for years to come (R48 posted about his small % sale several times) and it will annoy you, sorry.   

In your bucket 1 you have DBLSX and it's down -4.8% YTD.  Did you ever dream that one of your favorite "safe" funds would lose so much?  Did you think that CEFs could lose much so quickly? this is a black swan and crazy things happen. IOFIX performance YTD is terrible and worse than others.  Wait, NHMAX, another favorite of mine, also lost more than the category because it has leverage > 20.

I told you (and others) many times for years now that most don't understand risk/volatility, diversification will not help you, basing your investments AA(Merriman) on what happened years ago is not reliable and most are not flexible.  Most/all of these claims came true.  I understood after 2008 that the FED intervention + the big high tech companies will change things that were more common before.

Actually, I'm "scared" now because every trade I made YTD was successful, it will be difficult to stay at 100%  :-)

BTW, all I said "I'm up every week in 2020 " which is true...but you took it to another level.

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Valued Contributor

Re: YTD Performance Check


@FD1001 wrote:
...

FD....divert and deflect...well, that is what a good debater does :-)

...

Absolutely not. It is what husbands and wives do, that leads to divorce. It would be recognized immediately in a formal debate setting as strawman, tu quoque and other debate fallacies. LINK

I participated in debate at one point in my life and those tactics would not have cut the mustard.

https://www.forensicscommunity.com/league/national-forensic-league

https://www.speechanddebate.org/

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Explorer ○○○

Re: YTD Performance Check


@FD1001 wrote:

...divert and deflect...well, that is what a good debater does :-)


Actually, that’s what a good gamesman does. 

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Valued Contributor

Re: YTD Performance Check

Hey, can we STOP the cheap shots at each other! I’m not going to direct this at specific posters, but I come here to learn what others are thinking/ doing, NOT see people deride each other for their different portfolio management techniques. 

I’m down significantly since this started- about 21% from my peak. In absolute terms, that’s LARGE- over 1.7 million. But, I still have some “dry powder”, and still working for another 2 years, so I’m “patient”, will continue to slowly add selectively to positions. 

Win
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Contributor ○

Re: YTD Performance Check

FD  .....  I only fund DBLSX every 6 months with 18K from which I draw $3K each month to support my gap expenses.  So it is not a major holding for me.  It is down -4.8% but its yield is 2.7%.  Not a big deal for me.  It has historically been very good.  These are unusual times.  But my exposure is miniscule.  What cash equivalent fund do you suggest that gives a decent yield?  Your favorite DHEAX????

Last night, I updated my spreadsheet.  Pre-chaos my AA has been 33 bond OEF, 17 bond CEF, 45 equity, 5 gold/pm/long short comm.  Today, in midst of chaos, my AA is 38 bond OEF, 15 bond CEF, 40 equity and almost 7 gold/etc.  If I were still working and getting a paycheck, I would re-balance but now NO NO NO NO NO.  NO REBALANCING.  I am going to ride it out, enjoying the added money in my Bucket 1.  I will wait for the other stuff to recover.  This is what Buckets of Money is designed to do and I am just going to STAND DOWN and let it do its thing.  I may be tempted to reallocate among my Bucket 3 equity like selling some of my over weight international and swap with US large cap or REITS but no ....  I am going to stay put and let the chaos resolve.  This has always been my plan, I am sticking with it.  Make it a great day guys and gals,  I am off to weekend caregiver activities for my 98 year old mom with dementia.  She is doing relatively well for her age.  Luckily she has a boatload of bank CDs and savings which I always hated do to low returns for her but now it is paying off for her,  

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Explorer ○

Re: YTD Performance Check

Thanks Win - I too an tired of the bickering BS.  What I sometime ago thought to be a "conservative" retired guy portfolio is down 17% as of 3/20.  Also have some dry powder.  Would like to think that last week represents "Main Street" recognition of the economic impact.  Stay well all.

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Re: YTD Performance Check

After this virus starting spooking the markets, I  rebalanced my IRA to approximately 55% equities and 45% bonds, a bit more aggressive for a retired guy but I do not need the money to live on due to a pension I receive. Portfolio is down 22% from start of year. I will just wait this out and keep my fingers crossed that history will repeat itself as far as a market recovery. 

If I wasn't retired, I see this as a tremendous buying targeted opportunity. 

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Follower ○○○

YTD Performance Check

"..Can we STOP the cheap shots at each other! I’m not going to direct this at specific posters, but I come here to learn what others are thinking/ doing, NOT see people deride each other for their different portfolio management techniques. ..."

Thanks WIN.  We join the forum to learn of the investment ideas/thoughts from each other.

My YTD unrealized investment loss is close to WIN's.

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Participant ○○

Re: YTD Performance Check

As a conservative retiree with an equity allocation of, what was then 35%, I had thought that if the market dropped 50%, I could tolerate a 17.5% drop in my portfolio.  But I didn’t pay enough attention to what the actual loss would amount to.  So as of 3/21/2020, I’ve experienced a drop of 13%. Ouch!

Brian

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Explorer ○○○

Re: YTD Performance Check

BrianG: So as of 3/21/2020, I’ve experienced a drop of 13%

YTD or from the top value?

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Explorer ○○○

Re: YTD Performance Check


@gscrest1 wrote:

After this virus starting spooking the markets, I  rebalanced my IRA to approximately 55% equities and 45% bonds, a bit more aggressive for a retired guy but I do not need the money to live on due to a pension I receive. Portfolio is down 22% from start of year. I will just wait this out and keep my fingers crossed that history will repeat itself as far as a market recovery. 

If I wasn't retired, I see this as a tremendous buying targeted opportunity. 


Retired at end of 2018 with 40/60 allocation. Rebalanced to 40/60 on Jan 3, 2020, which included rebuilding my TIRA ST bond fund with 2 years of monthly withdrawals. I used some of my extra cash to fund my 2020 Roth IRA on 3/10 during the initial downdraft.  As mentioned earlier, portfolio value down around 13% YTD as of Friday close.  Current allocation running 38/62 at this point, so no plans to make any other changes for the time being as my trigger is +/-5% from target.  

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Participant ○○

Re: YTD Performance Check


@Saratoga wrote:

BrianG: So as of 3/21/2020, I’ve experienced a drop of 13%

YTD or from the top value?


Hi Saratoga - YTD

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Contributor ○

Re: YTD Performance Check


@Win1177 wrote:

Hey, can we STOP the cheap shots at each other! I’m not going to direct this at specific posters, but I come here to learn what others are thinking/ doing, NOT see people deride each other for their different portfolio management techniques. 

I’m down significantly since this started- about 21% from my peak. In absolute terms, that’s LARGE- over 1.7 million. But, I still have some “dry powder”, and still working for another 2 years, so I’m “patient”, will continue to slowly add selectively to positions. 


Sorry Win.  I am the OP and started post to be helpful.  Problem is FD stalks me, mischaracterizes me and taunts me.  I wish he would leave my OPs alone.  I don't go on his.  But without Ignore button I feel compelled to respond.  

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Valued Contributor

Re: YTD Performance Check

Paul, 

No need to apologize!!! I'm just directing this at all the "discussants". I too wish Morningstar would bring back the "ignore" feature, they are a few (very few) who really get on my last nerve, but I really try to encourage everyone to be civil, avoid cheap shots/ disparaging comments so we can all benefit from the platform. 

Win
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Contributor ○○○

Re: YTD Performance Check

Paul, why bother explaining......

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Explorer ○○○

Re: YTD Performance Check

YTD I am down 25%.

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Contributor ○

Re: YTD Performance Check


@Gary1952 wrote:

Paul, why bother explaining......


Gary ...   I like Win and, if he didn't know my long history with FD, I wanted him to know why I respond to FD the way I do. 

 

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